Amidst the turn of the information age, dependence on critical minerals for digitalization, AI development, and alternative energy has reshaped the global political economy. Because of their integral role in microchip production, critical minerals have become a key component in trade negotiations; therefore, consideration of long-term sustainable supply-chain alternatives is urgent. The U.S. may already have a solution amidst geopolitical tensions: recycling retired solar photovoltaic (PV) modules, otherwise known as urban mining.
On October 16, 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s new rule for the Rural Energy for America Program (REAP) took effect, prohibiting pre-project grants and requiring 12 months of “pre-installation data” for grant application submission. Despite domestic policy barriers, U.S. cumulative PV installations are rising, with 11.4 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) installed in Q2 2026, a 43% increase compared to Q1 2026, and a 45% increase from Q2 2025. With the continually growing popularity of residential PV modules, there are expected to be over 8 million systems installed by 2030. The growing popularity of solar energy means that manufacturing and imports of PV modules will stay steady, if not increase.
With a significant share in the production and refining of materials essential in solar manufacturing, silicon, silver, and copper, China maintains near-hegemony in the supply chain of critical minerals, and therefore PV products. While the U.S. has domestic reserves of 45-47 of the 60 recognized critical minerals, it is 100% import-dependent on 12 critical minerals, and 50% import-dependent on 28 additional materials. China supplies the U.S. with more than 50% of demand for nonfuel mineral commodities, including copper and silver. U.S. dependence on China for minerals essential to tech development, namely microchips and semiconductors, leaves U.S. tech innovation vulnerable to Chinese tariffs.
However, each PV module installed represents a concentrated source of critical minerals, namely silicon, silver, and copper. It is estimated that by 2035, the PV recycling industry can supply 8% of the polysilicon, 11% of the aluminum, 2% of the copper, and 21% of the silver needed by recycling PV panels installed in 2020 to meet the demand for materials. Extracting critical minerals from end-of-life solar modules takes advantage of an existing reserve of already refined domestic materials.
PV modules have an optimum output lifespan of 25-30 years, with an additional 5-10 years of slow degradation. 70% of all PV module systems have been installed since 2019, meaning they are set to reach end-of-life (EOL) before 2050. Current PV module EOL management is heavily discussed amongst professionals, given that PV waste in the U.S. is projected to be between 0.17 and 1 million tons by 2030. Not only would recycling solar modules act as a critical mineral supply chain, but would also contribute to decreasing overall waste production.
Closed-cycle recycling infrastructure for solar products is both expensive and new, but technology for gathering recyclable materials from PV modules isn’t. The earliest account of recycling efforts was executed in 2005, when American manufacturing company First Solar successfully repurposed 90% of module material for reuse. It wasn’t until 2024, when the leading global manufacturer of PV modules, China’s Trina Solar, created the first 100% recycled crystalline silicon photovoltaic panel.
Nothing can replace the volume of minerals sourced from traditional mining, but the projected value of recyclable materials from PV panels is expected to grow from $170 million in 2022 to more than $2.7 billion in 2030, potentially reaching $80 billion by 2050 as the rate of EOL panels increases. Additionally, recovered aluminum already takes 95% less energy to produce than primary aluminum. While recycling EOL modules in the U.S. currently costs substantially more than landfill disposal —an estimated 200%–2,400% more per module— projected mineral recovery value could potentially help offset recycling costs over time. Critical minerals collected from recycling could help fill the U.S. critical mineral supply gap, increasing domestic supply chain security. As virgin-material prices remain elevated, recycling PV modules could also alleviate the expected future material supply bottlenecks.
Discussion about the use of recycled PV modules in critical mineral supply chains has already begun in the U.S., with President Trump’s August 2026 announcement of $500 million allotted for seven select battery manufacturing and recycling capacity projects, in an effort to decrease foreign dependency. Additionally, SOLARCYCLE, the world’s largest solar recycling plant, is located in Georgia, U.S.A., with production capacity aiming at 1 million panels processed in 2026. Despite world-class capacity and continual funding, recycled photovoltaic panels have yet to become a legitimate long-term mining alternative in the U.S.
China has recently begun treating solar recycling as critical industrial infrastructure. First officially targeting PV recycling in its 14th Five-Year Plan announced in July 2021, Changzhou Ruisai Environmental Protection Technology Company has since built a major photovoltaic recycling facility in Changzhou, Jiangsu province. Likewise, CHN Energy launched a kiloton-scale solar module recycling demonstration line in October 2025. The branch is scheduled to open in 2026, aiming to process more than 10,000 tonnes of retired wind and solar equipment annually. In March 2026, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the new national target for recycled PV modules to reach 250,000 by 2027. China’s domestic solar recycling capacity is expanding rapidly, and without development the U.S. may soon fall behind.
As the future of solar technology expands and the value of critical minerals continues to rise, investment in large-scale research and development (R&D) for recycling PV modules is a distinct advantage.
In July 2023, The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) selected 4 projects to receive $15.7 million in funding, specifically targeting the increasing demands on PV materials, system operation and maintenance, and recycling. Furthermore, DOE’s Photovoltaics End-of-Life Action Plan aims to cut the cost of recycling PV modules in half by 2030, reducing the environmental impact of solar energy modules at end-of-life. U.S. federal-level funding for PV urban mining is strong, but lack of state-level incentives is a policy gap that has potentially kept it from becoming a mainstream solution to critical mineral supply chain security.
On a U.S. state-level, many have individual solar market incentives, but tax credit programs primarily target installation and deployment of PV modules rather than R&D of urban mining. If large solar firms are incentivized to work with PV recycling R&D labs to process more modules, PV recycling would become a more realistically implementable technology. Increasing research, expanding infrastructure, and immediate implementation of PV recycling incentives for solar manufacturing firms is critical as recoverable materials grow increasingly more valuable.
Sourcing critical minerals needs a sustainable alternative to combat fluctuating tariffs and build domestic supply chain security. Urban mining of photovoltaic panels represents a recoverable materials industry with an estimated value that is increasing tenfold. In an effort to maintain competitive advantage amidst geopolitical tension, the U.S. should implement photovoltaic recycling incentives for solar manufacturing firms.
