On November 29th, North Korea conducted its 20th missile test of 2017, resetting the clock on U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s suggestion that if North Korea halted its “nuclear and missile testing for about 60 days, that would be the signal the United States needs to resume direct dialogue with Pyongyang.” This was North Korea’s first missile test since September 15th.

Last week’s launch not only marked a resumption of Pyongyang’s testing schedule, it was a leap forward for their nuclear weapons program. Kim Jong-Un put a new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) on grand display, the Hwasong 15, which appears to be larger and more capable than any ballistic missile Pyongyang has ever tested. Using conservative estimates, experts believe that the new missile gives North Korea the capability to deliver a 1,000 kg payload to any point on the U.S. mainland. Pyongyang almost certainly has the capability to produce warheads that weigh 700 kg, if not considerably less.

This is a dramatic change of the status quo that directly oversteps a redline that Trump established in January, when he tweeted that he wouldn’t allow North Korea to complete the development of their ICBM program.

As with most things, Trump did not take the news particularly well. The American president escalated his war of words with Kim Jong-Un, calling him “a sick puppy” and vowed to impose “additional major sanctions” on North Korea. Unfortunately, that isn’t much of a plan. Successfully applying additional sanctions will require direct intervention from Beijing, as China is by far North Korea’s largest remaining trading partner. There is very little reason to expect that will happen.

There is a popular myth in Washington that China will magically fix America’s North Korea problem. According to that narrative, China simply needs to step up its game and put more pressure on North Korea to rein in its bad behavior. This myth permeates American politics, and pops up like a jack-in-the-box every time there is a flare up in tensions with North Korea. For the United States, the penultimate goal is to achieve denuclearization of the Korean peninsula by any means necessary. This includes regime change in the North. For the United States, this isn’t which isn’t just an acceptable outcome, it’s the preferred outcome.

This is a nightmare scenario for China. Although Beijing shares the goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, this objective is secondary to maintaining strategic stability in North Korea. From China’s perspective, the only thing worse than a nuclear North Korea is a collapse of the Kim regime, and subsequent unification of the peninsula on South Korean terms. If this were to happen, millions of refugees would likely pour across China’s southern border, placing enormous financial strains on China’s economy and destabilizing its southern provinces. Perhaps most significantly, it would bring South Korean and American troops to China’s doorstep. That is a scenario that Beijing simply cannot allow to pan out.  

Applying additional sanctions would make that risk very real. North Korea has already been under heavy UN sanctions for decades, and China fears it is getting close to the breaking point.

Shortly after the latest missile test, Trump called president Xi Jinping to try to convince him that it was time for China to cut off oil supplies to North Korea. Perhaps the most blunt assessment came from U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. “Here’s the only option that I can see that would possibly work, is if China basically cut off the energy that North Korea needs to survive or threaten to do so.”  

This is a pipe dream. Until the Unites States reconciles its national security interests on North Korea with China’s it is a naive ask. China could of course take a page from the Trump playbook and issue an empty threat to cut off the North’s oil supply, but that would violate the golden rule of international relations. Never draw a red line that you aren’t prepared to enforce.

Given that reality, there is only one option left on the table. Deterrence. It’s not a pretty option, but it is the best one we have for managing the crisis and gradually working to eliminate North Koreas nuclear weapons program. For more than 70 years deterrence has been attributed with preventing a nuclear war. There is no reason to believe that the same strategy cannot be applied to North Korea.

Yet the Trump administration insists that deterrence is non-option. Instead, it continues to seek instant gratification pledges to denuclearize the North, by force if necessary. Combined with president Trump’s erratic temper and childish insults, this is a recipe for disaster. 

The odds of North Korea and the United States stumbling into war have increased dramatically in recent months. Some experts put that figure as high as 50 percent, and as U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster recently pointed out “it’s increasing every day.” That is not only deeply disturbing, it is also completely unnecessary.

North Korea has been a de facto nuclear weapons state since it conducted its first nuclear weapons test in 2006. It’s goal of developing ICBM capabilities has been apparent for just as long. The only wildcard is the United States. The Trump administration needs to deal with the North Korean regime as it is, not as it wishes it could be. Failure could have catastrophic consequences.