Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made an unannounced visit to Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, catching the world by surprise. This was Kim’s first trip outside of North Korea since he took power in 2011, and his first meeting with a head of state. Although the Kim-Xi meeting was characterized as an unofficial visit, and only confirmed after the fact, it nonetheless reaffirms the high degree of influence that China and North Korea’s leaders wield in Northeast Asia. How did China and North Korea emerge as winners in this equation, and what does the Kim-Xi meeting mean for the United States?

China

China reasserted its role as a central player in the denuclearization process. Xi’s meeting with Kim shattered the illusion that China has been marginalized by the Trump administration’s leadership on the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. China emerged from the Kim-Xi meeting with two major victories. First, China demonstrated that it still holds economic leverage over its ally to the south.This makes Beijing an indispensable partner in putting pressure on North Korea, one that Washington cannot afford to ignore in its dealings with Pyongyang.

Second, the meeting represented a significant step towards repairing Sino-DPRK relations, which had deteriorated precipitously in recent years.This was perhaps best illustrated by the execution of Jang Song-thaek, Kim’s uncle and Beijing’s point man in Pyongyang. During the meeting, Kim and Xi affirmed their commitment to improving strategic communications between the two countries, a talking point that was quickly validated when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his North Korean counterpart Ri Yong Ho on April 3.

China showed that it will not be left out of the Trump-Kim meeting, though not necessarily present at the negotiating table. Beijing is expected to be similarly active behind the scenes during the inter-Korean meeting scheduled for late April. This development is directly in line with China’s desire to assume a greater leadership role in global affairs.

North Korea

The meeting was undoubtedly a good strategic move on Kim Jong-un’s part. Although Beijing was widely perceived as the winner, North Korea succeeded in goading Beijing into action. Given the fact that the Kim-Xi meeting happened shortly after Trump’s public commitment to meet Kim, it appears that Pyongyang succeeded in forcing Beijing’s hand in extending an olive branch to counter U.S. influence.

Readouts of the meeting in both Chinese and North Korean media outlets have lauded the personal relationship between Kim and Xi. Closer ties with Beijing can have several benefits for Pyongyang:

1. Increased confidence when negotiating with Trump on denuclearization.
2. Possible easing of sanctions enforcement.
3. Domestic confidence in Kim’s leadership.

Winning Xi’s support means that Kim will be able to go into his meeting with Trump more confident that Beijing will have his back when push come to shove. China will likely continue to enforce its policy of returning North Korean defectors, a significant element of Kim’s iron grip on power. China might also turn a blind eye to certain cross border trade and smuggling. This would be a particularly devastating blow to Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, given that China accounts for more than 90% of the exports to North Korea.

It is worth noting that KCNA, North Korea’s state news agency, failed to mention that any commitment to denuclearization had been made by Kim during the visit. Xinhua News, on the other hand, China’s state news agency, quoted Kim saying he’s open to discuss the matter. This  suggests that denuclearization is not North Korea’s top priority in re-establishing ties with China.

The United States

Trump’s relationship with Kim has been one of verbal commitments. The fact that the United States was not involved in the Kim-Xi meeting–and was not informed about it until after the meeting–is a humbling reminder that actions speak louder than words. While Trump may have been the first world leader to announce plans to meet with Kim, this meeting has proven that he is by no means the only leader that Kim is interested in working with.

In spite of its considerable influence in Northeast Asia, the United States cannot ignore China’s role as a central player in nuclear talks with North Korea. As long as the United States remains committed to denuclearizing North Korea, it must demonstrate its ability to coordinate and cooperate with other actors. It is more important than ever for the United States to engage not only with North Korea, but also China, South Korea and even Japan ahead of the anticipated Trump-Kim meeting in May and the inter-Korean summit later this month in order to achieve peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.

Implications

The Kim-Xi meeting was a success for China and North Korea and a learning experience for the United States. Beijing reasserted itself as a central player in the geopolitics of Northeast Asia. Pyongyang demonstrated that it remains in control of the speed and pace at which narrative of the resolution to the crisis on the Korean peninsula is unfolding. The United States walked away from this meeting looking weak and clueless. The narrative that Washington has sought to promote, that Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” campaign brought Pyongyang to the table in the first place was brought into question. The illusion that Trump is somehow leading the coalition to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions was dealt a severe blow. If there is any hope of resolving the crisis on the Korean peninsula peacefully, Washington needs to play catch up and get on the same page as the other actors in the region.

Yinchen Yan, Yadian Chen and Vivian Zhu are research assistants at the Institute for China-America Studies.