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October 20, 2021

ICAS Bulletin (online ISSN 2836-3418, print ISSN 2836-340X) is published every other week throughout the year at 1919 M St NW, Suite 310, Washington, DC 20036.
The online version of ICAS Bulletin can be found at chinaus-icas.org/bulletins/.

- What's Going On? -

Progress Towards a Biden-Xi Meeting

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping shake hands before an expanded bilateral meeting at the White House February 14, 2012 (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

– On October 16, Chinese officials said it is “unlikely” that Xi Jinping will attend the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow this November, eliminating a possible liaison with President Biden. This news followed an October 6 announcement that Xi will not attend the G20 summit in Rome on October 30, citing COVID-19 measures.

– On October 13, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng stated that the US-China working group, set up in advance of an expected virtual meeting between Biden and Xi later this year, has already “made some progress.” 

– On October 8, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called the US-China relationship an “intense competition” that needs to be “responsibly managed.” This debrief of his meeting with Yang Jiechi in Switzerland followed comments from former Obama advisor Evan Medeiros that nothing but top-level meetings has “as great a chance of working” in managing the US-China relationship.

– On October 7, President Biden and President Xi agreed to hold a virtual meeting before the end of the year.

Cross-Strait Tensions Increase

Tsai Ing-wen reviewed the Second Battalion of the 99th and Ninth Marine Brigade of the Marine Corps during the 2020 Military Exercise (Source: Taiwan Presidential Office via Flickr)

– On October 13, Harvard University announced that it was moving its summer Chinese language program—the Harvard Beijing Academy—from Beijing to Taipei due to “a wide array of operational factors.”

– On October 9, President Xi Jinping called for a “peaceful reunification” of the mainland with Taiwan in his remarks commemorating the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution. Tsai Ing-wen replied the next day by decrying China’s record-breaking incursion into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) the previous week and underscoring Taiwan’s resolve to defend itself.  

– On October 7, it was reported that US special operations and Marine units have been secretly deployed in Taiwan for at least a year training local forces.

– On October 6, President Biden confirmed that he and President Xi agreed on their phone call last month to maintain the policies towards Taiwan outlined in the states’ joint communiqués from the 1970s and 1980s.

Pressure and Negotiation in US-China Trade and Markets Persist

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai signing an order (Source: Office of the USTR)

– On October 18, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved Goldman Sachs’ bid to take full control of its joint venture in China.

– On October 13, reports surfaced that China was considering elevating the antitrust bureau of the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) to the deputy-ministerial level, which would increase its personnel by more than double.

– On October 9, China revealed that it pressed the US to eliminate extant tariffs on Chinese goods in talks between Vice Premier Liu He and USTR Katherine Tai last month.

– On October 5, it was reported that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission banned the shipment of radioactive materials and hydrogen isotopes to the state-owned China General Nuclear Power Group.

Covert Activities Surface Prompting Public Denials

US soldier rides in a landing craft headed for USS New Orleans anchored off the coast of Cambodia (Source: U.S. Marines via Flickr)

– On October 16, it was reported that China tested a hypersonic missile in August that left US intelligence with “no idea how [China] did this.” China denied testing a weapon, calling the test a “routine spacecraft experiment.” 

– On October 13, the CIA announced the formation of a new China Mission Center intended to “address the global challenge posed by the People’s Republic of China.”

– On October 13, the US stated that China’s construction projects at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base raise “concerns [over the] intended use of the naval facility” after satellite images released by CSIS appeared to show a new road and three new buildings with unclear purposes.

– On October 12, the Pentagon denied China’s accusations that the US is attempting to “cover up” the collision of one of its submarines in the South China Sea by waiting five days to release news of the crash in a press conference.

Military Leaders Clamour to Counter China’s Buildup

Pre-ministerial press conference by the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (Source: NATO via Flickr)

– On October 18, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated in an interview that “China is coming closer to us [in] Arctic…cyberspace…[and] critical infrastructure in our countries,” noting that countering China will likely be added to NATO’s next strategic concept slated for 2022.

– On October 14, Admiral John Aquilino—US Indo-Pacific Command Chief—stated that the US wants “to increase the complexity and scope” of its military drills with the Philippines with the UK, Australia and Japan mentioned as “like-minded” countries who could join as observers.

– On October 13, Admiral Mike Gilday—US Chief of Naval Operations—responded to a question on China’s increasing military capabilities, posed during a media call in India, by saying “[w]e are not going to outspend China…[so] the key piece here is allies and partners.”

- What Are We Reading? -

- What's Happening Around Town? -

Past Events

October 7 hosted by SupChina

October 7 hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies

October 8 hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies

October 12 hosted by Washington State China Relations Council

October 12 hosted by National Bureau of Asian Research

October 20 hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Upcoming Events

October 21 hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies

October 21 hosted by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

October 26 hosted by the Wilson Center

October 27 hosted by Wilson Center

November 3 hosted by Duke Law

November 10-11 hosted by SupChina

- What ICAS Is Up To -

ICAS Events and Co-Sponsored Events

Fintech, Big Tech, and the Investment Implications of China’s Regulatory Storm: What Gives?

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

9:30am – 10:50am EDT

As U.S-China relations have broken down, the Chinese state has rushed through stringent new laws and guidelines to strengthen data protection, deter monopolistic behavior as well as the security of network products and services linked to the cross-border flow of data. The zeal to limit foreign listing of key information infrastructure and core data from being maliciously exploited by an adversary is matched by an equal determination within the Beltway to shield the sensitive personal data of Americans from Chinese bidders of questionable transparency, as well as de-list Chinese companies from major U.S. stock exchanges for a host of reasons ranging from national security risk to their failure to abide by standard audit disclosure requirements. As data and capital markets across the Pacific decouple, a number of high-profile Chinese companies, as well as American investors, have been caught in the crossfire.

In the context of these fast-moving developments, the event will discuss (a) the heady innovation in the fintech space in China and Asia, (b) the motivating factors behind the regulatory storm unleashed by the Chinese Communist Party on its home-grown Big Tech pioneers, (c) the investment implications of these stark Chinese technology regulations for American investors, and (d) the depth of sentiment against China on Capitol Hill as U.S. agencies set about bringing Chinese companies to heel on complying with U.S. legislative and regulatory requirements.

ICAS Issue Brief

The Biden Administration’s Emerging “New Approach” on U.S.-China Trade and Tariffs

by Sourabh Gupta

October 19, 2021

On October 4, following a months-long inter-agency China policy review, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai unveiled the outlines of the administration’s emerging “new approach” on trade policy towards China in an eagerly anticipated speech in Washington, D.C. The USTR-led China policy review was the first of its kind in more than 15 years.

In her remarks, USTR Katherine Tai made several overarching points….

Overall, USTR Katherine Tai’s advertised “new approach” on China trade policy is not terribly different from the broken “paradigm” of the previous administration’s approach. This is arguable despite her castigation of the Trump team for its failure to “meaningfully address the fundamental concerns that [Washington has] with China’s trade practices and their harmful impacts on the U.S. economy.” Just as before, tariffs are to be leveraged to elicit changes in China’s behavior (despite ample evidence of the self-defeating nature of Trump’s Section 301 tariffs). Unilateralism is not jettisoned but is to be leavened with a more “allies first” approach. And, just as before, adherence to multilateral trade law is to be approached with an a la carte attitude—picked, chosen and harped upon when convenient to advance American economic interests; kicked into the long grass when politically inconvenient. 

The remainder of this Issue Brief is drawn up in the context of USTR Katherine Tai’s unveiling of the outlines of the administration’s emerging trade and tariff policy approach vis-à-vis China. In Section I, the Issue Brief carries a prescient Insider Interview with the President of the U.S.-China Business Council, Craig Allen, on all matters China trade and tariff policy considered. The Issue Brief concludes in Section II with a summarized backstory of how Washington and Beijing arrived at their current dismal state of trade policy affairs, levying self-damaging tit-for-tat tariffs across a wide range of goods. If the “durable coexistence” that USTR Tai alluded to in her delivered remarks is to take hold in U.S.-China relations, it is as important to look backwards at this recent history as it is important to look ahead and chart a path forward…

ICAS Commentary

An Emerging Trend Towards Building Back Better U.S.-China Relations: Key Takeaways from the Yang-Sullivan Meeting

by Yilun Zhang and Amanda Jin

October 7, 2021

The bilateral relationship between China and the United States has finally begun to show solid signs of improvement in recent weeks. The September 9 phone call between leaders of the two countries reaffirmed Beijing’s and Washington’s intention to prevent conflict and seek avenues for cooperation. The release of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, which coincided with the release of Canada’s “two Michaels” and American citizens Victor and Cynthia Liu, became the first diplomatic thawing produced under the Biden administration. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Zurich yesterday follows this trend and reassures the world that conflict and open hostility is undesirable for both Beijing and Washington. The meeting showed an emerging trend towards ‘building back better’ U.S.-China relations through revitalized, professional senior-level diplomatic engagement after a volatile four years under the Trump administration. It also revealed various challenges and differences in the policy orientations of the U.S. and China – differences that will require continuous dialogue in order to keep both parties operating off the same page…

ICAS Commentary

Quad’s India Problem: No Different From Beijing

by Sourabh Gupta

October 7, 2021

The Quad, which held its first in-person leader-level summit meeting at the White House, aims to champion the role of international law in the maritime domain. Australia, Japan and the US should first get New Delhi to revise its UNCLOS-related rules and regulations, which bear far greater similarity with Beijing’s than that of its Quad partners…

This commentary was originally released by S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSiS) at Nanyang Technological University

ICAS In the News

On Monday, October 11, 2021, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the U.S. nuclear submarine espionage row on RT America’s In Question.

Sourabh Gupta on RT America's In Question on October 11, 2021