Why Is It Hard for China and the U.S. to Cut a Deal on Trade?
Cheng Li, Diana Liang
China US Focus, July 26

“Trade tension between the United States and China is not a new phenomenon. Since China’s ascension to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the two countries have brought as many as 35 disputes against each other. Yet, the recent series of events is different and threatens to be escalatory and prolonged. Since the U.S. imposed trade sanctions on China four months ago — stemming from a Section 301 investigation — many have begun referring to this current spat as a ‘trade war.’”

“The factors that have prevented both sides from cutting a deal are not limited to the economic domain. Unless we assess the political and security issues playing out on the sidelines, we will not fully grasp the nature, current deadlock, and possible trajectory of the ongoing confrontation between the two largest economies in the world.”

What Will North Korea Negotiations Mean for the U.S.-China Balance of Power?
Ferial Saeed
War on the Rocks, July 26

“The Trump administration’s new approach to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has shocked official Washington. Gone is the old formula, embraced by Republicans and Democrats alike, that requires North Korea’s internal transformation to precede its integration into the international community. The Trump formula takes the opposite and unorthodox course of a reset of U.S.-North Korea relations with a guarantee of regime survival as the path to denuclearization.”

“The end state on the peninsula and how it is achieved will have a profound impact on the balance of power between the United States and China, the dominant and rising powers, respectively, in the Asia-Pacific. Tensions will arise over the structure of regional security. U.S. administrations over the last few decades believed those tensions were manageable because both sides saw constructive relations as vital to their national interests. That shared perspective guided their behavior for four decades. However, submerged under the facade of constructive relations has been the harsh reality that there was and remains zero strategic trust between the United States and China.”

Burned Once by Trump, China’s Xi Wary About Fresh Trade Talks
Peter Martin
Bloomberg News, July 24

“The last time the U.S. and China engaged in serious trade negotiations, President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide got burned.”

“Following intense talks in Washington this May, Vice Premier Liu He declared that a trade war had been avoided after China agreed to “significantly increase purchases” of U.S. goods. In interviews with Chinese media, Liu said Donald Trump showed him respect as Xi’s special representative, and he had “a very strong feeling” the U.S. president wanted good relations with Beijing.”

4 Powerful weapons China has in its arsenal to win the US-China trade war.
Bryan Borzykowski
CNBC, July 20

President Trump said he is willing to increase tariffs on $505 billion worth of Chinese goods. China would not be able to match this tariff threat, considering they currently import $130 billion worth of U.S. goods. However, this does not mean China cannot retaliate. On the contrary, they have four non-tariff measures they can use to fight back:

-Stop buying U.S. Treasuries
-Devalue the Yuan
-Make Life Harder for U.S. companies
-Isolate the U.S.

Since Singapore: Letting North Korea Off the Hook
Jeffrey A. Bader, Ryan Hass
Brookings Institution, July 17

“Secretary of State Mike Pompeo found in his first meeting with the North Koreans after the Trump-Kim Jong-un Singapore summit that he has a number of carrots, few sticks, and disturbingly little leverage, despite the disparity of power between the United States and North Korea. His unproductive early July visit to Pyongyang showed that negotiating with North Korea demands that the United States be in a position to exercise leverage.”

“President Trump gave away much of that leverage in Singapore by treating the event as a spectacle, rather than an opportunity to lay the groundwork for a negotiation to denuclearize North Korea…The only significant step North Korea has taken toward addressing U.S. and allied concerns has been its suspension of nuclear and missile tests, which Kim announced in the run-up to his April meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, not with President Trump. These failures in Singapore left Secretary Pompeo with the unenviable task of negotiating termination of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs beginning a lap behind the starting line.”