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Commentary

Whither to goes the U.S. Innovation Ecosystem

By Zhigang Li

December 20, 2018

In the News

Samsung to Shut Mobile Phone Plant in China’s Tianjin
Reuters, December 12

China, U.S. discuss plans for trade talks amid break in tariff battle
CNBC, December 11

Japan effectively bans China’s Huawei, ZTE from government contracts, joining U.S.
Simon Denyer
The Washington Post, December 10

How Asia Fell Out of Love With China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Iain Marlow, Dandan Li
Bloomberg, December 10

China Court Grants Qualcomm Injunction against Apple, Banning Sale of Some iPhones
David Faber
CNBC, December 10

China urges North Korea to address US concerns on nuclear programme
Lee Jeong-ho
SCMP, December 7

Nearly 350,000 Chinese cadres disciplined during Xi Jinping’s austerity campaign
William Zheng
SCMP, December 5

No marks for Chinese education bosses sacked after exam results public outcry
Pheobe Zhang
SCMP, December 5

Portugal fetes China, risking tension with Western allies
Barry Hatton
The Seattle Times, December 4

China Announces Punishments for Intellectual-Property Theft
Bloomberg News, December 4

Trump’s car deal with China is great — for other countries
Alex Ward
Vox, December 3

After Trump summit, no mention in China of 90-day deadline or trade concessions
Anna Fifield
The Washington Post, December 3

U.S. sends warship near South China Sea islets ahead of G20 summit
Jesse Johnson
Japan Times, November 30

Why Trump tariffs on China not stopping theft of trade secrets
Michael Collins
USA Today, November 28

China Expands Research Funding, Luring U.S. Scientists And Students
Joe Palca
NPR, November 27

Articles and Analysis

Everyone warns of China’s rise. But its decline could be even worse.
Alex Ward
Vox, December 12

“But while reporting in Japan on Wednesday, I heard the most troubling prediction about China yet — and it was actually about the country’s decline. ‘If the central government runs out of money, then they’re in trouble,’ Akio Takahara, one of Japan’s leading scholars on China, told US-based reporters.”

“First, on the surface it seems impossible that China — the world’s second-strongest economy — would run out of cash any time soon. But there are signs that China is undergoing a significant slowdown, partially because of President Donald Trump’s trade war. […] Second, the US and other countries for decades hoped that engaging China would prompt it to open up its economy and eventually become a more democratic society. The hope, though, was that shrewd management of China’s transition to democracy would make it relatively painless — and even bloodless.”

In China Visit, North Korea’s Foreign Minister Says Pyongyang Committed To Denuclearization
Christopher Bodeen
The Diplomat, December 12

“North Korea’s foreign minister said his country remains committed to ending its nuclear weapons program in talks Friday with his Chinese counterpart, according to China’s Foreign Ministry. The talks in Beijing between North Korea’s Ri Yong Ho and China’s Wang Yi came amid a lack of progress in international efforts to persuade North Korea to reverse its drive to build a nuclear arsenal.”

“Despite initial optimism generated by Kim and Trump’s June summit meeting in Singapore, diplomacy has since come to a halt amid disputes over a U.S. demand that North Korea first produce a full inventory of its nuclear weapons and take other denuclearization steps before winning significant outside rewards.China, which fought on North Korea’s behalf in the 1950-53 Korean War, has suggested a more staggered approach, including a suspension of large-scale South Korean and U.S. wargames on the peninsula. More surprisingly, the South Korean government under President Moon Jae-in has adopted a similar approach, pushing for a breakthrough inter-Korea economic relations even while UN and U.S. sanctions on the North remain in place.”

The US government’s ongoing battle with Chinese telecom giant Huawei, explained
Emily Stewart
Vox, December 11

“Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer and the daughter of its founder, is under scrutiny over Justice Department allegations that she violated sanctions on Iran, but the US government’s concerns about Huawei go far beyond its dealings with Tehran. There have been worries for years about potential national security concerns posed by Huawei as well.”

“For years, congressional committees, the FBI, the National Security Agency, and others have flagged close ties between Huawei and the Chinese Communist Party, and the US even banned the company from bidding on government contracts. At a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing in February, top US intelligence chiefs said Huawei and another Chinese tech company, ZTE, posed potential national security risks to the US and warned American companies about doing business with them.”

“Intelligence officials caution about the national security implications of Chinese technology outpacing the US or being used for nefarious ends. In particular, officials are concerned that companies like Huawei might sell products compromised by “back doors” that allow Chinese government hackers access to data or surveillance. Alternatively, Huawei might turn over the data it has collected to the Chinese government, or the Chinese could somehow weaponize Huawei’s technology”

Don’t Fall for Facebook’s ‘China Argument’
Tim Wu
The New York Times, December 10

“Over the last year or so, Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook and other American tech leaders have issued a stark warning to those who want to see more competition in the industry. It goes something like this: ‘We understand that we’ve made mistakes. But don’t you realize that if you damage us, you’ll just be handing over the future to China? Unlike America, the Chinese government is standing behind its tech firms, because it knows that the competition is global, and it wants to win.”

U.S.-China Friction Threatens to Undercut the Fight Against Climate Change
Somini Sengupta
The New York Times, December 7

“The tensions between Washington and Beijing range from trade to cybersecurity to military rivalry in the Pacific. And while some of those issues have simmered for years, cooperation in the fight against climate change had once been a bright spot, so much so that it propelled the creation of the landmark global agreement in Paris in 2015 to curb greenhouse gas emissions.”

China’s Djibouti Base: A One Year Update
Tyler Headley
The Diplomat, December 4

“Since its construction, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Support Base in Djibouti has become an increasingly important outpost in the Horn of Africa. The base’s geostrategic location yields insights into China’s machinations for the region. Roughly two years ago, China’s negotiations with Djibouti for the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) first overseas military base successfully concluded.”

Avoiding War between America and China
Sulmaan Khan
Foreign Affairs, December 3

“U.S.-Chinese relations, the current wisdom goes, are in need of a fundamental rethink. In October, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence trumpeted the United States’ determination to compete relentlessly in order “to reset America’s economic and strategic relationship with China.” But even before Pence’s speech, there were calls to reexamine U.S. assumptions about China. The hopes of liberalization on which previous policy was based, the former Obama administration officials Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner recently argued, have proved ill-founded. It’s time, they say, to search for a “better approach.'”

The U.S. urgently needs new icebreaker ships to patrol the Arctic. Will Trump’s border wall get in the way?
NBC News, December 3

“Experts who have long watched this process are hoping funding for the icebreakers finally comes through, before it’s too late. Even on an optimistic schedule, the earliest a new heavy icebreaker could be in the Antarctic is at least five years from now, and an additional icebreaker for the Arctic would take about 10 years. Russia, in contrast, has invested far more to protect its larger Arctic interests — it has a fleet of about 40 icebreakers and is building more.

As a House subcommittee discussed the budget bill in July, Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard, D-Calif., noted the absence of funding for the icebreaker. ‘The United States is at an increasing disadvantage in the Arctic compared to the Russian fleet and we can no longer afford to delay,’ she said. ‘This is a major area of weakness in our national security.'”

China’s Belt and Road Initiative is poised to transform the clean energy industry
Daniel Araya
Brookings, November 27

“Stretching across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, BRI represents a strategic trade network for Chinese goods and services. One industry that could benefit enormously from BRI is clean energy technologies. Beijing’s 12th Five-Year Plan directly focuses on investments in advanced technologies, especially clean energy technology.”

“Notwithstanding the country’s voracious appetite for coal and oil, China will invest more than $6 trillion in low-carbon power generation and other clean-energy technologies over the next 20 years. Global energy demand is expected to rise 30 percent by 2040 with investments in new power generation capacity expanding to $10.2 trillion. The majority of that investment—nearly $7.4 trillion— will be in renewable energy generating capacity.”

China’s Untested Military Could Be a Force—or a Flop
Timothy R. Heath
Foreign Policy, November 27

“In February 1943, U.S. troops suffered a humiliating defeat in their first major battle with German forces during World War II. At Kasserine Pass, Tunisia, their inexperience was evident in the indiscipline and fragile morale of the troops; a dispersed, vulnerable deployment; and a rigid, inflexible approach to command and control. The United States paid for its inexperience with the lives of about 6,500 men.

Two decades later, a clash between inexperienced U.S. troops and another seasonee adversary produced a different outcome.”

Why Balochs Are Targeting China
Muhammad Akbar Notezai
The Diplomat, November 26

“Over the years, China-Pakistan relations have evolved positively. The mainstream media of the two countries always features the mantra of friendship and brotherly ties. Despite that, however, from day one China has been concerned about one thing in Pakistan: security. Both religious extremists and Baloch separatists have reportedly killed Chinese citizens inside Pakistan in the past.”

US-China — compete, not cheat: Beijing must open economy to foreign business if relationship is to recover
Joaquin Castro
Nikkei Asian Review, November 26

“(The) sign of growing concern in the region over China’s economic practices is accompanied by an increasingly constrained space for economic cooperation between the world’s two largest economies. There certainly are fundamental issues the United States has with Chinese economic practices that cannot be waved away.”

Will China Return to Isolationism?
Cui Lei
The Diplomat, November 23

“In the past decade, there have been worrisome signs indicating that China is secluding itself from the outside world. The government has imposed strict regulations on the internet, blocked some foreign websites with unfavorable information through the Great Firewall, forbidden university teachers from adopting textbooks compiled by Western scholars, and set limitations on travel abroad by government personnel, among other steps.”

Past Events

China’s Power: Up for Debate
Event hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 29

The China Power Project of CSIS hosted its third annual conference, featuring leading experts both from China and the U.S to debate core issues on underpinning the nature of China’s power. Debates among speakers included topics on U.S-China relations and global governance, China’s industrial policy and economic growth, China’s development in Artificial Intelligence and the innovation industry, and the South China Sea issues. U.S’s engagement policy with China, both, highlighted in the first debate and the closing keynote speech, is critical to design a solution to advance and promote peace in response to the challenges and opportunities presented by China’s rise.

The Arctic and U.S. National Security
Event hosted by the Wilson Center, December 4

The Polar Institute of the Wilson Center hosted The Arctic and U.S. National Security symposium at a critical time for the region. The symposium included policy leaders currently drafting branch-specific Arctic strategies, solicited insight from senior Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and Department of Commerce leadership, and elicited guidance and perspective from individuals representing the State of Alaska, industry, and research communities. The three panels covered topics on strategies for a new Arctic, U.S.’s policy, research and development perspectives in the Arctic and possible pathways forward for America’s security in the Arctic.

From Climate Villain to Hero: Can China Lead the Path to Paris in a Fragmented Climate Action World
Event hosted by the Wilson Center , December 6

The China Environment Forum of the Wilson Center held a discussion on China’s capacity to take up the mantle of global climate leadership via years of decarbonization and developments in the clean energy technologies. The discussion was moderated by Jennifer Turner, Director, China Environment Forum & Manager, Global Choke Point Initiative and joined by three discussants. Barbara Finamore (NRDC) broke down China’s climate turnaround and its successes and challenges in shifting away from coal. Stephen Munro (Bloomberg NEF) contrasted China’s decarbonization efforts with those in California and Germany. Taiya Smith (Climate Leadership Council) reflected on opportunities for carbon pricing within and beyond China and how countries can move Paris forward in a world of fragmented climate action.

Where to from Buenos Aires? Outlook for U.S.-China Trade Ties following Trump-Xi Meeting
Event hosted by Institute for China-America Studies, December 12

The Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) held a public event to discuss the outlook for U.S.-China trade ties following the meeting of the U.S. and Chinese presidents on the sidelines of the G20 leaders meeting in Buenos Aires, and the ensuing 90-day trade truce declared by the two sides. Dr. Mary Lovely, a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a professor of economics at Syracuse University, was the featured presenter. Dr. Ellen Frost, a senior advisor and fellow at the East-West Center in Washington, D.C., moderated a discussion thereafter featuring Dr. Lovely and Mr. Sourabh Gupta, an ICAS senior fellow.

In her leading remarks, Dr. Lovely touched upon the three main trade policy-related frictions in U.S.-China ties: (a) the U.S.’ large trade deficit with China, (b) complaints regarding coerced technology transfers and intellectual property rights (IPR) practices, and (c) the conjunction of bilateral high-technology trade and investment with national security concerns. During the discussion, the panelists agreed that U.S.-China trade, IPR and investment ties are too fluid at this time to make any reasonably accurate prediction of the state-of-play 90 days hence, but excess optimism is certainly not warranted.

U.S. China 2018 Year in Review: A New Cold War?
Event hosted by the Wilson Center, December 18

The Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute and History and Public Policy Program held an informal discussion of “Cold War” rhetoric, trends and events that defined and drove the US-China bilateral relationship in 2018. This event featured Meredith Oyen, Associate Professor of History, University of Maryland, Yun Sun, Co-Director, East Asia Program and China Program Director, Henry L. Stimson Center, Robert Daly, Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, and Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy, Founding Director Emeritus, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. Several speakers expressed their concerns over the detrimental effects of the Cold War rhetoric, and gave their opinions of identifying ways to cooperate while managing the increasingly diverging interests.

Upcoming Events

The Launch of the Stephenson Ocean Security Project
Event hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 9, 2019

Commentary

Whither to goes the U.S. Innovation Ecosystem

By Zhigang Li

Amidst the recent clamor that the U.S. is “ Out of big idea[s]” and that “ Slightly Better iPhones Won’t Fix the U.S. Economy” there are growing concerns about the troubled state of the innovation ecosystem in the United States. To provide a more panoramic view, it is useful to take a slightly deeper dive into the basic question: “where do innovations come from.”

When Robert Solow and the other great economists of his time reasoned that the secret to growth can be construed mainly to Total Factor Productivity (TFP), the U.S. was already more than half-a-century into leading the world’s innovation capabilities and, in the process, racking up huge fortunes through innovation. Although having come under attack as being a form of “statism” over the past several decades, the role of the government in the U.S. has been essential in fostering the nation’s innovation eco-system. Daniel Drezner has argued that there are three functions of government in this regard: first, the government can provide a steady source of initial demand which could escort that particular innovative activity through the “death valley” of early-stage development. Second, the government’s investment in public goods related to innovative activity is indispensable, and this includes federal spending on education, basic science and R&D. The third function of government is to establish and supervise the rules of the game to ensure that innovation is rewarded and is profitable. Linda Weiss, further, has drawn attention to the puzzle which posits the (false) view of the superseding role of entrepreneurs. Actually, many of the critical technologies that today’s idolized corporations, such as Apple and Google own, have come from “costly and sustained state sponsorship” initially. However, hostility toward an affirmative role of government has diverted government involvement disproportionately towards a concentration on the ‘National Security State’, particularly in the form of “innovation hybrids.” Both the secrecy and inconsistency of government participation have given birth to a medley of social, economic and political contradictions in the U.S., which have further been aggravated as the horizon of innovation itself has evolved onto more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous terrains. As such, the evolution of the U.S.’ innovation trajectory has led to the following paradoxes:

Lack of a consistent national innovation agenda. As was demonstrated by the U.S.’ retreat from the Paris Agreement a lack of consistency in the country’s priorities, both in the domestic and foreign policy arenas, has begun to leave a huge impact on the re-orientation of federal research-related funding. The “biggest loser from the decision could be the United States itself” as Katharine Hayhoe , director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University, has presciently observed, given that the Agreement constitutes “a strong incentive for innovation in the energy and the economy of the future.”

Link missed in applied innovation. Democratic and Republican administrations and successive Congresses have serially approached innovation with different strategies and policies. This has led to a loss of direction in priorities and caused frequent administrative failures, as Brian Kahin and Christopher T. Hill have pointed out. Furthermore, the lack of a top-down administrative agency responsible for innovation programs and analysis tends to provide only fragmented and fragile support to the private sector from an innovation standpoint. In this regard, Daniel Drezner has argued that a decentralized state structure is a necessary but insufficient condition for the U.S. to maintain its leadership in technological innovation through the creation of an experimentation-friendly environment, while at the same time avoiding biased decisions that favor vested interest groups that stick to out-of-date policies. However, one of the more recent studies has argued to the contrary that it is precisely the absence of key institutions focused on applied research and process innovations that has led to the U.S.’ failure to compete (as well as cooperate) with its global competitors and partners in the area of manufacturing. And that’s exactly why James Pethokoukis of American Enterprise Institute (AEI) has called for the revival of the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment.

Limits to private funding for innovative activity. Federal spending on R&D is extremely important in areas that are less appealing to the private sector. And particularly where decades-long patient investment is required, one can hardly find enthusiasm within business circles, as a study of the gradual and excruciating evolution of the computer and internet industries in the U.S. shows. However, federal input in this critical research area has been declining over the past several decades. John F. Sargent Jr. of Congressional Research Service observed in a recent report that “two sectors—business and the federal government—have accounted for more than 90% of U.S. R&D funding since 1953. Federal R&D expenditures as a share of total U.S. R&D expenditures peaked in 1964 at 66.8%, the same year that business R&D expenditures reached a nadir of 30.8%. Between 1964 and 2000, the federal government’s share fell and business’ share rose. In 2000, business accounted for 69.4% of U.S. R&D expenditures and the federal government 25.1%. …In constant dollars, federal R&D declined for five consecutive years from 2009 to 2014, a total drop of 17.0%; a similar drop occurred from 1987 to 1994, when federal R&D fell by 15.8%.” What’s more, U.S. federal R&D budget as a percentage of GDP has declined from 1.23% in 1976 to 0.71% in 2018, as per AAAS. It is this very dynamic that has prompted Samuel Brannen to lament that expecting the private sector to drive innovation in national security is a “Bad Idea.”

Loss of vision in tackling post-industrial challenges. According to Daniel Bell, the coming of the post-industrial society has been the result of governmental and business’s concerted efforts in advancing scientific and technological innovation. The coming of the post-industrial society is also accompanied by the nationalization and even internationalization of social problems. Due to the revolution in communications and transportation, government has been required to perform a central role in financing scientific and technological research and maintaining innovation networks. As Bell has aptly noted, “the crucial decisions regarding the growth of the economy and its balance will come from government, but they will be based on the government’s sponsorship of research and development, of cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis; the making of decisions, because of the intricately linked nature of their consequences, will have an increasingly technical character.”

Paraphrasing John Maynard Keynes’s wording, one can argue that just as the passage of the ideas of “defunct” economists and political philosophers on late-coming generations of “practical men and madmen in authority” demonstrates the strength – however inadvertently – of these ideas, so also these “defunct” economists and political philosophers could not have foreseen the consequences of their theoretical prowess. This is particularly germane when one comes to analyze the political dynamism and its impact on the U.S.’ political, economic and societal environment as has unfolded since the 1970s – a period when innovation was commonly recognized as the driving force behind growth and development among nations. Politically, the two Parties were locked in a constant fight from their distinctive poles, which contributed (or rather de-contributed) to the demonization of the mixed-economy and the welfare state. The results of this can be more clearly observed following the 2008-09 Great Recession. As Gross Domestic Productivity (GDP) growth recovered robustly, there was “ The World Class Poverty in America’s Booming Economy ” Exploring the relationship between voter partisanship and income from 1956 to 1996 Nolan McCarty, Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal have uncovered a phenomenon of stratification of political partisanship by income, and argue that “this trend is the consequence both of polarization of the Parties on economic issues and increased economic inequality.” While we have entered the stage that C. Wright Mills depicted as “in so far as an economy is so arranged that slumps occur, the problem of unemployment becomes incapable of personal solution”, it is up to the federal government to rise to the challenge through its vision and leadership. Just as Galbraith in 1980 had warned against in his conception of “The No-Win Society” that would lead to a path of negative-sum game within the nation, we should also advise men-in-authority to guard against what Jeffrey D. Sachs has more recently termed as “foreign policy populism,” in addition to the disproportionately high defense budget and the deservedly-criticized tendency for unilateralism. This unfortunate but intimidating triad must be prevented from becoming “today’s greatest threat to the international rule of law, and therefore to global peace.”

Whither to, then, goes the U.S. innovation ecosystem? The answer to this question boomerangs to the very heart of the ultimate purpose of innovation itself: an inclusive development propagated through open innovation in cooperation with other international partners will enable the aggregation of social cohesiveness and political consensus, nationally and globally. And, in this context, it is imperative thus to foster an open ecosystem that is conductive to the promotion of innovation rather than to its prevention.

 

(Li Zhigang is a visiting scholar at Georgetown University)