As North Korea’s single largest trading partner and main ally in the region, China has a large stake in the Trump-Kim summit taking place in Hanoi.
North Korea’s pursuance of nuclear weapons has provoked fear in the region causing Japan and South Korea to develop ballistic missile defenses in response, much to China’s displeasure. China is also concerned with the security of North Korea’s nuclear weapons due to its greatest fear: collapse of the Kim regime. If the Kim regime collapses, North Korea’s nuclear weapons would be at risk of leakage or sale to non-state actors.
Stability on the Korean peninsula is a key objective for China, as it shares a 1,420 kilometer border with North Korea spanning Liaoning and Jilin provinces along the Yalu River. The majority of North Korean defectors escape the country through this border with China, then continue onward to countries in Southeast Asia where they cannot be repatriated to the North before seeking asylum with South Korea. If there was a collapse in the Kim regime, countless millions would likely make a rush to the DPRK-China border to escape the country.
China’s desire for stability in the Korean peninsula has led to their strategy of increasing trade and investment with the isolated nation in the hopes of preventing regime collapse. North Korea receives much needed food and energy resources and in exchange China assures the stability of the Kim regime and maintains a buffer between US troops in neighboring South Korea.
The United States has over 26,000 troops stationed along the DMZ in South Korea, and their presence is of great concern to both North Korea and China. This is one of the main reasons why China wants to ensure the Kim regime remains stable and why Kim Jong Un has said that US troops will need to vacate the DMZ for full denuclearization to take place.
Relations between China and North Korea remain fractured due to the North’s continued pursuance of nuclear weapons. Surprisingly, China upheld international sanctions in 2017 by limiting coal and petroleum exports to North Korea. It has also pushed for more six-party talks and peace in the peninsula, including denuclearization, and quietly supports US-DPRK negotiations.
Recent efforts have been made by North Korea to increase diplomatic ties with China. Prior to the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore, Kim Jong Un met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March and May and has kept Beijing informed about negotiations throughout the entire process. North Korea has relied on China to act as a facilitator for negotiations, as was seen when Kim Jong Un arrived in Singapore aboard an Air China plane and transited through China via armored train en route to Hanoi.
Although China would like to be more directly involved in negotiations with North Korea, the country affirmed its support of President Trump’s participation in the summit with Kim Jong Un in a statement to the press on February 27th:
“China supports an early end to the state of war on the Korean Peninsula. We once proposed and still believe that an effective way to resolve the Korean Peninsula issue is to follow the dual-track approach and promote in parallel the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a peace mechanism on the Peninsula. We support all efforts that are conducive to realizing this process and stand ready to play our role in this regard.”
-Lu Kang, China Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson
Any agreement made between President Trump and Kim Jong Un aligns with China’s objective of stabilizing the Korean peninsula. This is because an agreement between the US and North Korea would ensure that Kim Jong Un remains in power, preventing a regime collapse, while also keeping US troops out of China’s backyard. A lift in sanctions would provide the isolated country with much-needed foreign capital and help to alleviate hunger and energy insecurity.
An enforceable Trump-Kim agreement made in good faith would be a win-win for everyone, including China.
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Trenton Marsolek is a Research Assistant at the Institute for China-America Studies and an undergraduate at the American University in Washington, D.C.
