By the ICAS Team
Russia and China Say US Missile Test Could Revive Arms Race
Emma Graham-Harrison
The Guardian, Aug 20
“China and Russia have accused the United States of stoking a new arms race by testing a cruise missile, just weeks after Washington withdrew from a cold-war era missile control treaty that would have barred the test launch. The ground-launched missile, a conventionally-configured version of the nuclear-capable Tomahawk cruise missile, hit its target after over 500 kilometers of flight during Monday’s test, the Pentagon said in a statement.”
“Beijing also attacked the U.S. for provocative behaviour, warning that the missile test could lead to ‘another round of the arms race’, and have a ‘serious negative impact’ on international and regional security. ‘We counsel the U.S. side to abandon their outdated concepts of a cold war mentality and zero sum games, and exercise restraint in developing weapons,’ Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a news briefing.”
Trump Administration Delays Ban on Huawei Working With U.S. Firms
Katy Stech Ferek and Drew FitzGerald
The Wall Street Journal, Aug 19
“Chinese telecom company gets 90-day extension that has allowed it to do some business within U.S.”
China’s Central Bank is Cutting Interest Rates by Stealth
Laura He
CNN, Aug 19
“Central banks around the world are cutting interest rates to head off recession. China is now joining them, but in a roundabout way. On Saturday, the People’s Bank of China launched a long-awaited reform to the way it manages money in the world’s second biggest economy to support growth and employment. Its aim is to make it cheaper and easier for companies to borrow. The central bank is gradually replacing its existing fixed benchmark lending rate, with a new Loan Prime Rate, starting Tuesday. The idea is that the new fluctuating LPR will better reflect changes in market rates … The PBOC hasn’t said when the existing benchmark lending rate will be finally scrapped, but it reiterated on Saturday that it wants to merge its system of fixed and floating rates.”
Trump ‘Not Ready’ for China Trade Deal, Dismisses Recession Fears
Howard Schneider
Reuters, Aug 18
“U.S. President Donald Trump and top White House officials dismissed concerns that economic growth may be faltering, saying on Sunday they saw little risk of recession despite a volatile week on global bond markets, and insisting their trade war with China was doing no damage to the United States.”
Huawei Technicians Helped African Governments Spy on Political Opponents
Joe Parkinson, Nicholas Bariyo and Josh Chin
The Wall Street Journal, Aug 15
“Employees embedded with cybersecurity forces in Uganda and Zambia intercepted encrypted communications and used cell data to track opponents, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation.”
U.S. to Delay Some China Tariffs Until Stores Stock Up for Holiday Shoppers
Ana Swanson
The New York Times, Aug 13
“President Trump on Tuesday unexpectedly put off new tariffs on many Chinese goods, including cellphones, laptop computers and toys, until after the start of the Christmas shopping season, acknowledging the effect that his protracted trade war with Beijing could have on Americans.”
U.S. Adviser Bolton to Urge Tougher UK Stance on Iran and China
Steve Holland
Reuters, Aug 12
“John Bolton, U.S. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, arrived in London on Sunday for talks at which he is expected to urge Britain to toughen its stance on Iran and Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei.”
Google’s Decision to work with China, not U.S., ‘Unprecedented’: Peter Thiel
Matthew Kazin
FOX Business, Aug 11
“PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel said on Sunday that his calls for the U.S. government to investigate Google are in an effort to see if there is any ‘foreign infiltration’ at the tech giant. Thiel, a conservative who is an outlier among his peers in Silicon Valley, originally called for a federal investigation in mid-July at the National Conservatism Conference in Washington, D.C., accusing Google of working with China but not the U.S. government. The billionaire, who also sits on the board at Facebook, said Sunday that regardless of whether an American firm works with a civilian company in China, all technology is passed along to the communist nation’s military.”
“In particular, Thiel said he is most concerned about Google’s sharing of its artificial intelligence called ‘DeepMind,’ what he deems the tech firm’s ‘crown jewel.’ DeepMind was founded in 2010 and purchased by Google four years later. The search giant opened its AI research lab in China, the same year that the nation amended its constitution to include a mandate that requires all research done inside the country to be shared with its armed forces.”
U.S. Oil is Likely to be China’s Next Target as Trade War Rages, Energy Analysts Warn
Sam Meredith
CNBC, Aug 9
“China is expected to dramatically reduce its intake of U.S. crude imports over the coming weeks, energy analysts have warned, following the latest flare-up in trade war tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the U.S. and China has already sent oil prices plunging, in large part because of worries about a severe global economic slowdown and potentially even a U.S. recession. Wednesday’s session saw crude drop at one stage to a seven-month low.”
Trump Administration to Ban Huawei from Doing Business with US Government
Megan Henney
FOX Business, Aug 7
“The Office of Management and Budget is set to issue an interim rule this week that will lay out the steps to ensure that government agencies aren’t buying products from Huawei and several other Chinese companies. The rule, which will go into effect Aug.13, applies to Huawei, ZTE and all of their subsidiaries. By next August, the ban will extend to any government contractor doing business with Huawei. A Huawei spokesperson told FOX Business the news was ‘not unexpected,’ but that the firm will continue to challenge the constitutionality of it in federal court.”
“‘The [National Defense Administration Act] and its implementing provisions will do nothing to ensure the protection of U.S. telecom networks and systems and rather is a trade barrier based on country-of-origin, invoking punitive action without any evidence of wrongdoing,’ Huawei said in a statement. ‘Ultimately, it will be rural citizens across the U.S. that will be most negatively impacted as the networks they use for digital connectivity rely on Huawei.’”
Morgan Stanley: A Global Recession Could Arrive by Early 2020 if the US-China Trade War Continues
Ben Winck
Business Insider, Aug 5
“An escalation of US tariffs could spark a global recession in just nine months time, according to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist. A report from the bank highlighted year-over-year trade contraction brought on by weak export data, a slowdown in domestic demand, and renewed trade stress. Continued retaliation between the US and China could be the last nail in the coffin for the world’s economy, chief economist Chetan Ahya said in the report.”
Treasury Designates China as a Currency Manipulator
Doug Palmer and Ben White
Politico, Aug 5
“The United States took the rare step on Monday of formally labeling China a currency manipulator, as trade relations between the two countries continued to spiral downward after Donald Trump’s decision last week to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods.”
“‘In recent days, China as taken concrete steps to devalue its currency, while maintaining substantial foreign exchange reserves despite active use of such tools in the past,’ the Treasury Department said in a statement that followed the People’s Bank of China’s decision to let its currency, the renminbi, fall to the lowest level in more than a decade. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made the determination acting ‘under the auspices of President Trump,’ the department said. Mnuchin will now ‘engage the unfair competitive advantage created by China’s latest actions,’ it added.”
Dow Plunges 760 Points in Worst Day of 2019 as Trade War Intensifies
Fred Imbert
CNBC Aug 4
“Stocks fell sharply Monday as a trade war between the world’s largest economies intensified with China retaliating against President Donald Trump’s latest move. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 767.27 points, or 2.9%, to close at 25,717.74 and dropped as much as 961.63 points at one point. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 3% to 2,844.74. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, falling 3.5% to 7,726.04. It was the worst percentage drop for all three indexes this year. The S&P 500 is now more than 6% below its record hit only last month … Investors rushed to traditional safe havens like Treasurys and gold on Monday amid the uncertainty. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.74% and reached its lowest level since November 2016. Gold futures for December delivery gained 1.3% to settle at $1,475.50 per ounce.”
Pentagon Chief in Favor of Deploying U.S. Missiles to Asia
Thomas Gibbons-Neff
The New York Times, Aug 3
“The American defense secretary, Mark T. Esper, said Saturday that he was in favor of deploying ground based missiles to Asia, a day after the United States formally pulled out of a Cold War-era arms treaty that directly limited such weapons.”
Tariff Fight Costs China Spot as Top U.S. Trading Partner
Paul Kiernan and Anthony Debarros
The Wall Street Journal, Aug 2
“Escalating tariff disputes between Washington and Beijing cost China its position as the U.S.’ top trading partner in the first half of the year, as exports and imports between the two largest economies fell sharply.”
Trump: U.S. Will Hit $300 Billion Worth of Chinese Goods with 10% Tariff
Makini Brice and Susan Heavey
Reuters, Aug 1
“U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports starting Sept. 1, as talks aimed at easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies continues.”
Every American Should Hope Trump Prevails Against China
Joseph W. Sullivan
The Atlantic, Aug 20
“The trade dispute, though, is now about much more than economics-it’s testing whether a democratically elected government can prevail in the face of the authoritarian government of the world’s most populous country. And everyone who values democracy or human rights should hope that, one way or another, the United States ultimately prevails in that struggle.”
“China’s response to U.S. trade actions appears to reflect a cynicism about the efficacy of democracy. Beijing’s strategy appears calibrated to exploit the fact that the American people elect the head of their government, by attempting to influence how the American people will vote. In effect, it seems to be gambling on its ability to turn American democracy against itself. At the center of China’s responses are the tit-for-tat tariffs intended to hurt American farmers, a constituency that tends to support President Donald Trump and to live in crucial swing states. These tariffs appear designed to deliver political pain in the U.S., not to produce any economic benefit for China. China’s other political meddling, as Vice President Mike Pence recently laid out, includes attempts at interference in the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. Recent targets of Chinese Community Party influence efforts also include state and local governments, Congress, academia, think tanks, and the business community.”
“The dismal science of economics has much to say about economic relations between China and the United States. But the worst possible legacy of this trade conflict would not necessarily be dismal for reasons familiar to places such as the Council of Economic Advisers. It would be dismal because it makes the world safer for China’s authoritarianism and more dangerous for elected leaders who dare to challenge its malign behavior.”
Averting Crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific
Ashley Townshend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, and Matilda Steward
The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, Aug 19
“America no longer enjoys military primacy in the Indo-Pacific and its capacity to uphold a favourable balance of power is increasingly uncertain … Chinese counter-intervention systems have undermined America’s ability to project power into the Indo-Pacific, raising the risk that China could use limited force to achieve a fait accompli victory before America can respond; and challenging U.S. security guarantees in the process.”
“America has an atrophying force that is not sufficiently ready, equipped or postured for great power competition in the Indo-Pacific – a challenge it is working hard to address…U.S. and allied operating bases in the Indo-Pacific are exposed to possible Chinese missile attack and lack hardened infrastructure. Forward deployed munitions and supplies are not set to wartime requirements and, concerningly, America’s logistics capability has steeply declined.”
The United States Will Miss China’s Money”
Zachary Karabell
Foreign Policy, Aug 19
“The escalating tariff war, while it gets the attention, has masked a sharp decline not in U.S.-China trade (which, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, has remained relatively static) but in Chinese investment in the United States. The dollar amounts matter, but more significant is the lost leverage that those investments entail. Trump’s unilateral, preemptive trade war has rattled markets for sure, but early signs are that the domestic U.S. economy along with American soft power are the prime casualties. That surely was not the goal.”
The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side”
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Rachel Rizzo
Politico, Aug 12
“The United States has done little to help move Europe off the fence. Instead the Trump administration has actively pushed the continent away. Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal, imposing steel and aluminum tariffs, and antagonizing some of its closest allies, including by referring to the European Union a foe, have made the United States seem like a less attractive partner than it used to be. While Washington has been antagonistic, Beijing has been careful to strike all the right chords.”
“Europe’s reluctance to side with the United States puts liberal democracy in danger. The closer Europe gets to China, the less opposition China will face in its efforts to re-shape norms—on issues like data and privacy, Internet freedom, AI and governance. To uphold their shared values, both the United States and Europe need to collectively push back against China’s unfair trade and investment practices, its blatant human rights abuses, and the anti-democratic norms and practices it seeks to spread. A Europe that refuses to pick sides is exactly what Beijing seeks to achieve. Beijing understood long ago that its rising economic influence would lead other countries to balance against it. In an effort to dilute Western opposition to its national interests, China has taken steps to interrupt Europe’s alignment with the United States.”
Trade War Becomes Currency War
The Editorial Board
The Wall Street Journal, Aug 5
“President Trump claims trade wars are easy to win, but that boast looks worse than ever amid the financial carnage from his latest threat of tariffs on Chinese goods. His trade war has now become a currency war, which raises the potential economic harm to another level.”
Building Bridges? Development and Infrastructure in U.S.-China Relations
Event hosted by CSIS, August 8, 2019
Countering Emerging Economic Threats
Event hosted by Hudson Institute, August 1, 2019
Chilling U.S.-China Economic Relations: Options for Taiwan
Event hosted by Wilson Center, August 27, 2019
How the United States Can Maintain Its Lead in the Global AI Race
Event hosted by Center for Data Innovation, September 10, 2019
FRONTLINE: Trump’s Trade War – Meet the Producers
Event hosted by American University School of Communication, September 11, 2019
Trade and Technology: Assessing US-China Multi-Domain Competition
Event hosted by Cathay Review, September 12, 2019
ICAS is inviting submissions to our blog at www.chinaus-icas.org/blog. We are looking for the latest analyses of everything related to U.S.-China relations and also welcome topics that are not normally included in our bulletins, issue primers, or reports. Blog posts are welcome to include multimedia such as photos, videos, audio recordings, Tweets, and more.
Submissions may be sent to: icas@chinaus-icas.org
Here are some samples of recent blog posts submitted:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A Watershed Moment in the Future of Climate Change
By Garon Lizana
The massive scope and scale of the BRI’s energy projects also makes it a key deciding factor in the future of climate change. Despite official rhetoric about promoting sustainable development, Han Chen of the Natural Resources Defense Fund notes a conspicuous contradiction in fossil fuel investments associated with the BRI. A joint report by the World Resources Institute and Boston University found that between 2014 and 2017, 43% of energy-related loans by the China Development Bank and Export Import Bank of China went to oil, gas, and petrochemicals and 18% went to coal. Meanwhile, only 3.4% went to solar and 2.9% went to wind. By comparison, 25% of the World Bank’s active energy loans were allocated towards renewable energy. Current estimates by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis indicate that China has committed more than $20 billion in total towards coal plants so far…
Diversification of China’s Relationship with Latin America: What does this mean for the U.S.?
By Nataly Cruz-Castillo
As China and Latin America countries (LAC) continue to deepen their ties through investment projects as well as deepen political ties with China’s older regional partners, such as Brazil and Venezuela, the political leaders in the United States have expressed their concerns. Secretary Mike Pompeo shared his concerns on China’s policies in the Western Hemisphere during his visits to Chile, Paraguay, and Peru. Pompeo “accused” the Chinese government of “aiding” in the economic collapse of Venezuela. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lu Kang, responded to these claims by stating that “for a long time, the United States has regarded Latin America as its own backyard, and pressured, threatened and even toppled other countries’ political regimes.”…
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