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By Matt Geraci & Yilun Zhang
China’s Top Natural Gas Buyer Cancels Imports After Epidemic Hurts Demand
By Stephen Stapczynski and Anna Shiryaevskaya
Bloomberg, March 5
Natural gas demand has decreased sharply due to the coronavirus outbreak. As a response, CNPC, the parent company of PetroChina Co., stopped withdrawing supplies of gas from storage sites. PetroChina Co. has also postponed or cancelled shipments of liquid natural gas (LNG) due to a drop in consumption.
Coronavirus live updates: US cases surpass 100; bungled test kits slowed testing
By John Bacon,
USA Today, March 3
U.S. newest updates:
US postpones summit with ASEAN leaders amid coronavirus fears, sources say
CNBC, February 29
The Trump Administration decided to postpone the U.S.-ASEAN summit originally planned to be held on March 14 in Las Vegas as a security measure against the coronavirus epidemic. President Trump had invited the leaders of the 10 Southeast Asian nations to Las Vegas after failing to attend a similar summit in Bangkok last November.
Break with China? Top Trump aide eyes an opening with coronavirus
By Megan Cassella
Politico, February 26
Peter Navarro, the White House’s Director of Trade and Manufacturing, urged U.S. companies to bring medical manufacturing supply chains onshore as the coronavirus continues to spread globally. He argues that this will ensure that ‘the American public is safe and the U.S. economy is secure.’ Many see this as an opportunity to end U.S. companies’ dependence on Chinese suppliers.
South Korea reports 505 new coronavirus cases, postpones military drill with U.S.
By Sangmi Cha and Josh Smith
Reuters, February 26
South Korea reported 505 additional coronavirus infections in its largest daily increase on Thursday, as the United States issued a new warning against travel to the Asian nation and their militaries postponed a joint drill. The past week’s sudden surge in cases has ignited criticism of the government’s handling of the crisis, particularly a decision to limit arrivals from China rather than imposing a blanket ban.
China to refund US trade war tariffs on some medical devices amid coronavirus outbreak
By Amanda Lee
South China Morning Post, February 21
China said on February 21 it would refund tariffs already paid on a list of 55 U.S.-made products including some medical devices that are essential for the diagnosis of coronavirus. The move also suggests China is attempting to stick to the terms of the Phase One trade deal, signed with the United States on January 15, despite the economy facing severe pressure from the coronavirus epidemic.
China’s ambitious 5G push heading into slow lane due to coronavirus disruptions
By Josh Horwitz
Reuters, February 21
Among many other industries, China’s 5G telecom networks have been hard-hit by the coronavirus containment measures set by the Chinese government, resulting in 5G projects being postponed since January 31. Two ‘leading providers’ of the fiber optic cables crucial for 5G projects are housed in Wuhan city. 5G has been a ‘national priority’ for China over the last few years and, according to President Xi Jinping, related investments may be able to offset the decline in consumer spending.
WHO sends coronavirus test kits to African nations after first coronavirus case confirmed
By Jevans Nyabiage
South China Morning Post, February 19
The World Health Organization sent another batch of coronavirus test kits to 40 African nations while the Africa CDC trains workers to conduct the tests. Until about the first week of February, there were only two laboratories on the African continent that could test for the virus; one in Senegal and one in South Africa. Health professionals were originally using systems designed for Ebola virus testing. The second delivery comes a week after Egypt reported the first case of COVID-19 on the continent.
China central bank sees limited impact to economy from coronavirus
By Meg Shen and Twinnie Siu
Reuters, February 19
The People’s Bank of China publicly explained that the coronavirus’ impact on the economy will be limited ‘as the epidemic has not changed the country’s economic fundamentals.’ The bank said it would also extend credits and provide favorable loans to help companies that are involved in controlling the epidemic.
China turns to internet for food supplies amid virus fears
By Joe McDonald
Associated Press, February 18
Instead of electronics, demand for online food vendors has surged since Beijing told citizens to stay home in an attempt to quell the coronavirus epidemic. JD.com Inc., one of companies striving to fill this new demand, said that over the past month its drivers delivered ‘71,500 tons of rice, flour and other grains — 20 times more than the same period last year, — 27 million liters of cooking oil and 50,000 tons of meat, eggs, vegetables and other fresh products.’
China pledges support for US-Taliban peace agreement
By The Associated Press
ABC News, March 2
After the U.S. signed a peace agreement with Taliban insurgents on Saturday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced its support for an ‘Afgan-led and Afgan-owned’ reconciliation process for U.S.-Taliban relations, calling it ‘of a positive significance for the final political resolution of the Afghan issue.’ Among other statements, Beijing noted that U.S. troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan in a way that avoids creating a security vacuum for other terrorist groups.
U.S. Orders Chinese State Media to Cut Staff in U.S. by 40%
By Nick Wadhams
Bloomberg, March 2
A week after three Wall Street Journal reporters were expelled from China, the Trump administration alerted four Chinese state-owned news outlets that the combined number of Chinese media employees allowed to operate in the U.S. will be capped at 100 beginning on March 13. The media outlets impacted are Xinhua News Agency, China Global Television Network, China Radio International and China Daily Distribution Corp.
UN intellectual property agency the latest battleground as China and US vie for influence
By Sarah Zheng
South China Morning Post, March 1
The next director general of the United Nations World Intellectual Property Organisation (Wipo) will be elected next week and Beijing’s Wang Binying, the current deputy director general of Wipo, is widely recognized as the front runner. As the election approaches, Washington has promoted Singapore’s Daren Tang while Chinese officials have accused the U.S. of pressuring other members to vote against Wang.
US says Chinese warship fired military laser at US aircraft
By Ryan Browne
CNN, February 28
The U.S. Navy reported on Saturday that a Chinese military warship had previously fired a ‘military-grade laser beam’ at U.S. Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft flying over the Pacific Ocean. The U.S. Pacific Fleet stated that the Chinese ‘navy destroyer’s actions were unsafe and professional.’ Defense officials expect a formal diplomatic protest known as a démarche to be issued over the incident.
Chinese scientist Hongjin Tan gets two-year prison sentence for stealing trade secrets from US energy company
By Mark Magnier
South China Morning Post, February 28
The U.S. Justice Department announced Thursday that Hongjin Tan, a scientist who worked for energy company Phillips 66, has been sentenced to two years in prison for stealing trade secrets from his former company. ‘This comes as US-China tensions mount and Washington adopts a ‘whole-of-society’ approach in countering Beijing’s acquisition of US technology.’
Senate unanimously approves bill to ban purchase of Huawei equipment with federal funds
By Maggie Miller
The Hill, February 27
The Senate unanimously approved the Secure and Trusted Telecommunications Networks Act, which the House passed in December, banning the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) from giving funds to U.S. telecom groups to purchase equipment from companies deemed threats. The bill’s passage comes after months of bipartisan pressure to take steps against Huawei, the largest 5G equipment provider in the world.
US-China rivalry simmers in India as Trump visits
By Huileng Tan
CNBC, February 25
U.S. President Trump makes a two-day visit to India signifying close relations between the U.S. and India. Experts say that U.S.-India trade relations and military cooperation are strengthening as well. According to the article, India’s government recently approved the purchase of 24 military helicopters. However, the U.S.-China rivalry has been pressuring India to ‘take sides.’
Pompeo’s Africa Trip Reinforces Message of Competition With China
By Eleanor Albert
The Diplomat, February 24
While delivering a speech at the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Ethiopia, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indirectly warned African states and entrepreneurs away from Beijing’s investment offers. Pompeo advised that nations ‘should be wary of authoritarian regimes with empty promises’ that do not adopt ‘the American model of partnership.’
US must be ready for military clash with China, Pentagon official Chad Sbragia says
By Mark Magnier
South China Morning Post, February 21
Chad Sbragia, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, said that the U.S. must prepare for a ‘possible military conflict with China by developing new weapons, strengthening ties with allies and improving the Pentagon’s efficiency.’ Sbragia called the ‘challenge of conflict with China’ a ‘long-term process’ that requires the U.S. to ‘be agile, smart.’
China Expels Three Wall Street Journal Reporters
The Wall Street Journal, February 19
As punishment for a recent opinion piece referring to China as ‘the real sick man of Asia’ published by the Wall Street Journal, Beijing revoked press credentials and ordered the immediate departure of three reporters from the Journal. The opinion piece caused wide-spread anger in China. However, William Lewis, the Wall Street Journal’s publisher and chief executive of its parent company, stated that the opinion piece was ‘published independently’ from the newsroom side of the Journal.
U.S. imposes new rules on state-owned Chinese media over propaganda concerns
By Jonathan Landay
Reuters, February 18
The Trump administration sent a letter to five major Chinese state-run media entities detailing how they must now register their employees and U.S. properties with the State Department as if they were a foreign embassy. According to the State Department, the decision was made over concerns of Xi Jinping’s ‘more and more draconian’ grip over the Chinese media and was described as being ‘under consideration for some time.’
Ending Philippines-US military pact will affect South China Sea disputes: analysts
By Meaghan Tobin
South China Morning Post, February 15
The Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte finally confirmed plans to drop the Visiting Forces Agreement allowing the presence of American troops in the Philippines. U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper called the withdrawal a ‘move in the wrong direction’ but President Donald Trump expressed no concerns, instead saying that the U.S. will ‘save a lot of money.’ Experts regard the Philippines’ withdrawal a ‘huge win for China’ and a blow to American military presence in the South China Sea.
This US-China downturn may be difficult for Taiwan
By Ryan Hass
Brookings Institute, February 24
“While many Taiwan policymakers believe that the US-China tensions create favorable conditions for closer US-Taiwan relations, the intensified technology competition between US and China will end up hurting Taiwan.”
“The Trump administration concerns about China’s technological advancement, especially the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei’s growing penetration of markets across the globe. Washington’s focus, however, did not begin with the Trump administration and it will not end when President Trump leaves office. There is strong bipartisan awareness in the United States of the risks presented by Huawei’s growing global reach for information security.”
“With its efforts to halt Huawei’s spread into new markets floundering, the Trump administration is likely to double down on seeking to slow Huawei’s technological progress. This is where Taiwan’s equities come into play. Taiwan is a critical provider of high-end semiconductors that Huawei and other Chinese companies need and that Chinese manufacturers cannot produce themselves. On the flip side, China is an important market for Taiwan’s semiconductor companies. China famously spends more each year importing semiconductors than oil. As the United States wants to slow down the rate of China’s technological progress, including but not limited to Huawei. Washington may soon increase pressure on Taipei to support its strategic objectives vis-à-vis China, including by tightening restrictions on sales of high-end chips to China.”
A major ally’s decision to scrap an important military deal with the US raises the stakes in competition with China
By Christopher Woody
Business Insider, February 23
“Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s recently decided to withdraw from the Visiting Forces Agreement because he believes the Philippines should be more militarily independent. The potential end of that deal, and a diminished U.S. military presence, comes at a time when the U.S. and its partners in the region are seeking to counter China’s efforts to expand its influence.”
The Economic Fallout of the Coronavirus in Southeast Asia
By Trinh Nguyen
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 13
“The coronavirus has taken a devastating toll on its victims in China and elsewhere. But the epidemic has also exposed the downsides of leaning too heavily on China to power neighboring economies. The world watches as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to climb. But at more than 1,000 fatalities and counting, the new virus strain has already claimed more total lives than the 2002–2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, according to data from CEIC. That said, a lower share of people who have contracted the 2019–2020 coronavirus have died, a figure that hovers around 2 percent.”
“Quarantine measures may have helped keep the virus from spreading even faster, but they have also stymied economic activity. The virus’s ripple effects have hampered the economies of nearby countries, especially in Southeast Asia, in three main ways: by curtailing the number of Chinese tourists, disrupting China-centric supply chains, and putting a damper on economic demand in China. Southeast Asia is very susceptible to the economic fallout of the coronavirus in an array of sectors, including tourism and manufacturing, as well as due to dampened Chinese demand. Economies that have increased their dependence on China, such as Thailand (due to tourism) and Vietnam (due to exports and supply chain linkages), will be the worst hit.”
“The coronavirus has revealed some cracks in Southeast Asia’s growth models. Many of China’s neighbors have leaned too heavily on external demand and China-centric supply chains to drive their own domestic economic growth.”
Crash Landing into Freedom: The Stories of Former North Korean Soldiers
Event by Hudson Institute, March 4
Protecting China’s Biodiverse Hotspots: The Birth of a National Park System
Event by Wilson Center, March 3
How a modernized Navy will compete with China and Russia
Event by Brookings Institution, February 28
The China Challenge: A Conversation with Senator Rick Scott
Event by Hudson Institute, February 28
Prospects for a Stable Transformation of the Korean Peninsula
Event by Hudson Institute, February 26
Competition and Cooperation: Redefining Asia’s Economic Objectives
Event by Wilson Center, February 25
Global China: Assessing China’s relations with the great powers
Event by Brookings Institution, February 25
Bridging strategies: infrastructure efforts in Southeast Asia in an era of great power competition
Event by Atlantic Council, February 20
Understanding China’s Economic Slowdown: Countering Belt and Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation
Event by Hudson Institute, February 18
Rural Climate Action in the U.S. and China
Event by Wilson Center, March 6
Containing Coronavirus
Event by Center for American Progress, March 6
Key Challenges in Japan’s Defense Policy: Views from the Next Generation
Event by Stimson Center, March 10
The Future of Alliance Managements in Northeast Asia
Event by Stimson Center, March 11
A Conversation with the United States National Security Advisor
Event by Heritage Foundation, March 11
Human Rights in North Korea: Regaining Lost Ground
Event by Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 19
By Matt Geraci & Yilun Zhang
The Arctic Ocean is one of the most remote and unexplored regions on earth. Year-round freezing temperatures have made this waterway challenging to navigate. Even with state-of-the-art icebreaking ships, the abundant natural resources below the surface have been difficult to extract. That is now changing due to climate change. As the Arctic ice melts, waterways that were once inaccessible are becoming navigable during the summer months. The establishment of shipping lanes and trade routes through the Arctic is becoming a realistic prospect. As such, the Arctic is increasingly viewed as a region of both opportunity and potential conflict.
The Institute for China America Studies (ICAS) is committed to contributing research on developments in the Arctic to ensure that the exploitation of resources and navigation of the Arctic’s waterways is conducted in a peaceful and secure manner. This Issue Tracker is a part of our commitment to ensuring that the public, researchers, and policymakers have easy access to the latest updates regarding the Arctic Ocean.
The Arctic Tracker focuses on different issues than the South China Sea and the East China Sea Trackers due to the Arctic region’s unique geography and climate. The issues have greater global ramifications too. Issues worth exploring in this region include:
The scope of the first phase of the Arctic tracker focuses on two major aspects:
Relative to the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the maritime claims and entitlements of the Arctic states have largely been decided, though disputes do remain. ICAS has mapped the territorial and maritime claims of Arctic coastal states, which includes the United States, the Russian Federation, Canada, Denmark (Greenland), and Norway. Iceland, just like the other two Arctic Polar States, Sweden and Finland, is not a coastal Arctic state. However, Iceland has been included due to some of its maritime rights claims and agreements falling within the Arctic Circle.
We make a distinction between claims that have been submitted to international bodies, following the entry into force of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and broader claims that are more rooted in national legislation. In areas where maritime boundaries are in dispute, we show the stated territorial claims and entitlements of each party based on the best publicly available information.
A number of maps produced by governments and research institutions already exist that display claims to maritime jurisdiction. However, many of these maps leave an unclear impression as to what the actual international claims are, as they often do not differentiate between an internationally submitted claim and a maritime rights claim featured in national legislation. Furthermore, a number of maps may also try to ‘connect the dots’, meaning that an inference is made from partial submissions or non-demarcated territorial limits to display a map that appears more complete.
The territorial and maritime claims trackers that ICAS produces visually differentiate each claimant’s internationally submitted maritime claims from claims made through national legislation and display all submissions/partial submissions exactly as they were presented to the CLCS (Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf), one of the three international bodies established under UNCLOS. Therefore, these maps display what each country’s stated claims and entitlements actually are from the best available publicly sourced information and make no subjective interpretation as to what each claim or entitlement ‘should’ be.
For Phase I of the Arctic Security Trackers, three major military powers are prioritized: the United States, the Russian Federation, and Canada. Given the Arctic’s significant potential to shorten the traveling distance both in air and in the sea, the first phase of the Arctic security tracker seeks to produce the airpower projection of the three countries, particularly fighter jets, in the Arctic region. Based on publicly available information, ICAS approximated and reproduced the location of air bases for each country in the Arctic region and measured power projection based on the ranges of fighter jets from each base.
Previous ICAS maritime security trackers were displayed as interactive story maps that explored military doctrines, introduce each country’s military, and visualize each country’s overall military power projection. The Arctic Security Tracker seeks to preserve all of these elements while introducing new customizable features to allow for enhanced quality of analysis.
The Arctic Security Tracker index page currently displays an overview of military bases and power projection of the U.S., Russia, and Canada. In addition, each country now has its own profile page that includes both an overview of its military status and the tracker maps. The introduction of each country’s security strategy and goals will now be listed on the webpages.
The first new feature added to the Arctic Security Tracker allows users to turn layers on or off, which allows users to customize the map legend. The second new feature is the measurement function. ICAS understands that for geospatial-related security studies, it can be important for researchers to be able to measure and display the range, size and potentially the angle accurately. Therefore, the measurement tool is included in the trackers to allow users to create measurements and obtain accurate figures for their own research. Another function added to the Arctic Security Trackers is the drawing tool. Users will be able to draw their own features on the maps for the purposes of enhancing visuals for research and presentation purposes. Lastly, an option is now available for users to print out each map, which could include their own added drawings and measurements.
ICAS hopes that these fresh additions could further enhance user experience and better assist with studying the security dynamics in the Arctic region.
Future Arctic trackers will highlight countries, indigenous people, international and regional institutions related to the Arctic region. In addition, bilateral and multilateral agreements will be provided with the necessary background and each member country will be highlighted. As the Arctic region’s resources become increasingly accessible, non-Arctic nations have also become increasingly active members of these international institutions in order to have their voices heard on the future of the region. Therefore, it will be important to track and understand the nuances of each party’s evolving interest and stake in the region.
The Arctic region is a prime location for scientific research and the exploration of new shipping pathways. One of the ways that the Arctic countries maintain a consistent presence in the region is through the establishment of land-based and drifting ice-based research stations. In addition, non-Arctic nations with a vested interest in the region, such as China and Japan, have increasingly involved themselves in scientific research through cooperation with the Arctic nations.
The Arctic trackers will also present existing and proposed shipping routes in the region, along with their related major commercial ports. With Russia having by far the most icebreaking ships in operation and China ramping up its own fleet, the U.S. and other Arctic nations are increasingly feeling pressured to respond. As such, developments in the deployment and construction of icebreakers will be included in future trackers. In addition to melting ice, these ice breakers will increasingly allow access to new areas of research, shipping lanes, energy extraction, and more.
The next phase of the Arctic Security Tracker will continue to cover other security dynamics between the United States, the Russian Federation, and Canada, such as missile defense and nuclear submarine deployments. In addition, the other Arctic countries and their military presence in the region will also be included to compare the power dynamics of the European powers.
In the backdrop of increasingly tense relations in the Arctic, it is the goal of ICAS to use these trackers to build a platform for intellectual exchange that spans across institutions and sectors to promote greater multilateral cooperation and regional stability. Each of the topics and issues outlined above could be viewed as an entire field of study in and of themselves. Therefore, it will be important to establish a working relationship with scholars focused on these topical issues in the region to assist with researching important events and locations that could be included in future phases of the Tracker. ICAS seeks to actively engage in joint research with institutions and scholars in this regard.
Matt Geraci and Yilun Zhang are Research Associates at the Institute for China-America Studies
The Institute for China-America Studies is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening the understanding of U.S.-China relations through expert analysis and practical policy solutions.
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