Given the importance of the upcoming midterm elections this Fall and their potential impact on U.S. trade and technology relations with China, instead of a ‘On the Hill’ focus section, the next few issues of the ICAS TnT Dispatch will conclude with a ‘Midterm Outlook’ focus section to highlight the key incumbents and candidates, their views and statements made on China, and their prospects in the midterms.

– Key Incumbents –

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

• Marco Rubio is running for re-election this November for a third term in the Senate.
• Senator Rubio is one of the most outspoken members of Congress on issues concerning China. As a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Rubio has centered much of his rhetoric on general appeals against China’s rise and the dangers posed by the ‘Chinese Communist Party.’ 
• Nevertheless, the Senator has perennially introduced amendments that substantially affect trade and technology issues vis-à-vis China. Most recently, Senator Rubio attempted to amend the now-signed CHIPS and Science Act to address an absence of counterespionage provisions on semiconductor research and development and its lack of guardrails to prohibit funding recipients from using federal grants to expand production of older chip types in overseas markets like China. Senator Rubio has also joined calls for the Department of Commerce to expand export controls on critical technologies bound for China, and has consistently voted against easing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods.
• Rubio currently leads his Democratic challenger, Representative Val Demmings, by 9 points in the polls.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)

• Ron Johnson is running for re-election this November for a third term in the Senate.
• Senator Johnson occupies the classical liberal wing of the GOP, consistently voting in favor of free trade agreements and tax cuts while opposing tariffs and federal subsidies. This means that the Senator has voted against several measures designed to confront China economically, such as the United States Innovation and Competition Act (USICA) and the CHIPS and Science Act, as well as called on the USTR to review the tariff exclusion process and reduce tariffs on China altogether. 
• However, the Senator has responded to claims that he is too ‘soft’ on China by pointing to his support of measures to counter China in areas other than bilateral trade. For example, in March he introduced the Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act, which would reestablish an office in the Department of Justice to prevent Chinese spying against U.S. intellectual property and academic institutions. Senator Johnson also defended his vote against USICA by saying it did not adequately take China to task for stealing intellectual property and dodging investigations into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• Johnson is currently trailing in the polls behind his Democratic challenger, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, who has contrasted himself with Johnson by specifically addressing the U.S.-China trade relationship. For example, the Barnes campaign unveiled a plan to boost local manufacturing that calls for an end to “bad trade deals and anti-competitive practices” that he believes are stymieing Wisconsin businesses’ ability to compete with China. 

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ)

• Mark Kelly is up for re-election this November after winning a partial term in the 2020 special election.
• As a member of the Senate Energy Committee, Senator Kelly’s main contribution to U.S.-China trade and relations was his introduction of the REEShore Act in January . If passed by the next Congress, the bill would create a strategic reserve of rare earth elements (the global production of which is 97% controlled by China), phase Chinese-sourced materials out of Department of Defense systems, and investigate China’s unfair trading practices in the global market. 
• Senator Kelly also offered a motion to instruct conferees to increase semiconductor production incentives in the final China competition bill, which came to fruition in the recently passed CHIPS and Science Act. Arizona is a key state for semiconductor manufacturing with both Intel and TSMC operating chips plants in the Greater Phoenix area, to be joined by TSMC in the near future. 
• Kelly currently is leading his Republican challenger, the Trump-endorsed venture capitalist Blake Masters, by 9 points in the polls.

Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

• Speaker Pelosi is poised to win a 19th term in the House of Representatives this November, holding her firmly-Democratic district.
• Speaker Pelosi has taken a stand against China’s human rights record for decades and recently dominated the headlines with a controversial trip to Taiwan. Geopolitically important, her Taiwan visit also has implications for trade with one of her stops being a meeting with TSMC Chairman Mark Liu. The two reportedly discussed the key role of Taiwan in the U.S. semiconductor supply chain given that the island accounts for over two thirds of global semiconductor production. 
• Specifically, the two brainstormed possibilities for how the recently-passed CHIPS Act could be implemented to both U.S. government and Taiwanese industry stakeholders’ benefit. TSMC’s funding of the aforementioned semiconductor foundry in Arizona, dependent on CHIPS Act subsidies, is a business model which Pelosi would like to continue if she remains Speaker.