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August 2, 2023

ICAS Bulletin (online ISSN 2836-3418, print ISSN 2836-340X) is published every other week throughout the year at 1919 M St NW, Suite 310, Washington, DC 20036.
The online version of ICAS Bulletin can be found at chinaus-icas.org/bulletins/.

- What's Going On? -

Rising Tensions Create New Concerns For Bilateral Cooperation

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin alongside Australian Senator Penny Wang and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles on July 29, 2023. (Source/Credit: @SenatorWong via Twitter)

– Pew Research released the results of a recent poll asking Americans which country they believe to be the greatest threat to the U.S.; 50% of the participants named China.
– U.S. and European officials are growing increasingly concerned about China’s push into producing older-generation semiconductors, which have not been sanctioned, following the White House’s implementation of controls over the industry making newer models.
– Analysts believe that, under China’s current business standards, China should be able to enter into the trans-Pacific trade pact, but due to political turmoil it is preventing them from entering. 
– U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh reaffirmed the Biden administration’s unwavering plans to utilize targeted actions against China to defend human rights, and U.S. and allied security interests.
– U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has continued to urge the Chinese government to seek methods with North Korea to rein in their hostile nuclear program, saying that if China continues to not take action to decrease North Korean aggression, the U.S. will take action. Meanwhile, analysts predict several potential geopolitical shifts in East Asia related to China’s decision on North Korea.
– Secretary Blinken visited the Indo-Pacific to open a new Tongo embassy and to reaffirm U.S. connections to allied partners New Zealand and Australia as Chinese influence continues to rise in the region.
– The U.S. State Department has endorsed a report by the special rapporteur of human rights, stating that China has been exporting arms to Mymanar’s military which was subsequently used to assist and arm the 2021 coup. 
– The Chinese government has agreed to use countermeasures following CIA Director William Burns’ statement that the agency was rebuilding spy networks within mainland China. 
– The Chinese spy balloon that flew over the U.S. in February has exposed serious shortcomings within the surveillance defense system according to General Glen VanHerk, head of NORAD.
– U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, along with hundreds of thousands of U.S. government emails, fell victim to high-profile hacking from Chinese hackers who accessed email accounts and private documents.
– Recent U.S. visits to China have come under scrutiny following the review of the Chinese balloon incident from congressional officials.

New Technology Controls Plague Bilateral Trade

A drone from Chinese-owned brand DJI flying with a mountain backdrop. (Source/Credit: Sébastien Bourguet via Unsplash)

– Chinese technology companies are struggling to combat the increasing import restrictions placed on them from the U.S. and allies, and as a result are facing economic and productional challenges.
– U.S. microchip manufacturer Intel has decided to increase its business in China by opening a new innovation hub located in Shenzhen. 
– The Biden administration is planning to further limit U.S. technological investments in mainland China with new controls set to be released in mid-August.
– The U.S. government is looking to hunt down and remove Chinese spyware that they believe to be located within power infrastructure that feeds power to U.S. military bases both within the U.S. and abroad. 
– On July 26, the United States’ FBI released warnings about Chinese companies stealing U.S.-developed AI technologies, and utilizing them for their own gains.
– U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated that the Biden administration’s new restrictions on Chinese imports and exports will result in loss of revenue for some U.S. firms, but that the administration believes the controls to be “worth it.”
– TikTok has begun to plan a new aspect of the app to include e-commerce and selling Chinese-produced goods to American consumers, which will look to compete with the United States-based Amazon company.
– The Chinese government enacted new export curbs on drone equipment in-order to safeguard Chinese national interests.
– High-level officials from large American microchip manufacturing companies encouraged the U.S. government to study the impact of current China import and export controls before enacting new ones. 
– On July 17, the CEOs from Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to lobby for less export restrictions on AI microchips going to China.
– U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigeg has raised concerns over Chinese autonomous vehicle companies in the U.S., and security concerns following lawmaker statements looking to increase restrictions on their products and software.
– Following the announcement of new Chinese regulations surrounding data laws and restrictions on storing data onshore, Morgan Stanley moved more than 200 technology experts out of China.
– The Biden administration is planning new investment limits on Chinese technology companies that would include China’s semiconductor, quantum-computing, and artificial intelligence research.

Diplomatic Efforts are Showcased from Additional High Profile Visits

China's President Xi Jinping (R) speaks with former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger during a meeting in Beijing on July 20, 2023. (Photo by CNS / AFP) / China OUT (Photo by -/CNS/AFP via Getty Images)

– Following the removal of Qin Gang from the Minister of Foreign Affairs post, President Xi Jinping reappointed former Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as the primary person to represent China on the diplomatic world stage. Minister Yi retains a long standing relationship with many current Biden administration officials.
– Secretary Blinken visited the Indo-Pacific to open a new Tongo embassy and to reaffirm U.S. connections to allied partners New Zealand and Australia as Chinese influence continues to rise in the region.
– During a CNN released July 23, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized his desires to strengthen “lines of communication” and increase stability within the U.S.-China relationship.
– Current White House officials expressed regret regarding Henry Kissinger’s successful ability to obtain audiences with China’s top ranking officials during his visit despite current Biden administration officials being sidelined. Most notably, Mr. Kissinger received a private audience with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu. 
– Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi applauded Kissinger’s visit to Beijing and recommended the United States to employ more “Kissinger-style” China policies.
– U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry visited Beijing to increase bilateral cooperation on climate goals, which included a meeting with the Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.
– After Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with U.S. special envoy John Kerry, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned the U.S. that China will commit to its own strategies to reduce carbon emissions rather than following in the path of other nations. 

Bilateral Trade Faces New Challenges as Dedollarization Resurfaces

U.S. Dollars and Chinese Yuan lying side by side. (Source: Eric Prouzet via Unsplash)

– The U.S. Department of Defense is looking to issue a first-time contract for U.S. or Canadian suppliers to produce gallium. China will soon begin limiting exports on the high-value metal, which is vitally used in microchips and military equipment. 
– Chinese state-owned banking institutions were reported seen selling their U.S. dollars to purchase Chinese yuan in offshore and domestic spot markets.
– Chinese RMB has successfully exceeded the U.S. dollar for the number of cross-border transactions from China, topping 49%, with analysts citing more yuan-based trading with partners and a more open capital market. 
– The Chinese government has sent notices to law firms asking them to use less volatile language when advising on business risks in China and offshore listing documents, warning that failing to do so may risk their approval for IPOs. 
– 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Nikki Haley recommended American companies have a ‘plan B’ and American businesses to begin to see China as a security threat rather than an economic competitor. 
– The U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party sent a formal letter to Ford regarding their current battery production partnership with Chinese CATL over the companies suspected use of forced labor to make their batteries. 
– TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) has delayed their estimated opening date for their U.S. chip production plant to 2025 due to skilled labor shortages.
– Fast fashion retailers Temu and Shien have entered into a joint lawsuit over U.S. antitrust laws, as both look to dominate the U.S. fast-fashion market. The companies are currently in legal battles in Chicago and Boston federal courts. The two retailers have also attempted to better remove themselves from possible Chinese trade controls by moving their headquarters and distancing themselves from their original Chinese companies.

Taiwanese Presidential Frontrunner Causes New Worries

Taiwanese Vice President William Lai speaking on May 18, 2023. (Source/Credit: Taiwan Presidential Office via Flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic)

– The United States has announced a new US$345 million package to increase their military support for Taiwan. The package includes draws from American stockpiles, including man-portable air defense systems, and surveillance technologies. In response, the Chinese government has accused the U.S. of making Taiwan an “ammunition depot” and has claimed the new funding and resources will not create any deterrent in China’s will to unify the island. 
– Taiwan’s Vice President, William Lai, an increasingly likely candidate for the January Taiwanese presidential elections, has planned to make stops in the U.S. during his planned visit to Paraguay. 
– The Chinese government has accused William Lai of, “betraying the totality of the Chinese nation,” in a written op-ed from the Chinese embassy in D.C. The op-ed additionally stated that William Lai would “sell out Taiwan to the U.S.” and related him to an American patron. 
– The director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Sandra Oudkirk, stated that the U.S. hopes there are no Chinese provocative actions following William Lai’s visits to the U.S.

In Other News

Xiao Qi Ji’s first birthday party at the National Zoo in Washington, D.C. on August 21, 2021. (Source/Credit: Angela N via Flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic)

“China Cancels TEDx Event Over Foreign Influence Concerns,” Bloomberg, July 31 [Paywall]
“Meloni, Biden Eye Deeper Ties as Italy Weighs Pivot From China,” Bloomberg, July 27 [Paywall]
“Blinken criticises China’s ‘problematic behaviour’ during visit to Tonga,” Reuters, July 26
“U.S. Woos Pacific Nation Where China Has Stamped Its Mark,” The Wall Street Journal, July 25 [Paywall]
“Western sanctions and distrust draw China, Russia closer in the Arctic,” South China Morning Post, July 25 [Paywall]
“France’s Macron Tours South Pacific Where US-China Rivalry is Intensifying,” VOA News, July 24
“U.S. Weighs Potential Deal With China on Fentanyl,” The Wall Street Journal, July 24 [Paywall]
“Six Bubble Tea Chains Plan IPOs in Bet on China Consumer Revival,” Bloomberg, July 24 [Paywall]
“‘Mutual distrust’: the message in the US funding cut for China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology,” South China Morning Post, July 23 [Paywall]
“The Smithsonian’s Pandas Are (Probably) Celebrating Their Last Birthdays in D.C.,” DCist, July 21
“U.S. Bans Students From China’s Military-Linked Universities. Its Ally Japan Welcomes Them.,” The Wall Street Journal, July 21 [Paywall]
“China says US is dumping critical chemical into domestic market, undercutting industry,” South China Morning Post, July 21 [Paywall]
“US chip curbs are scaring venture capital firms from Chinese AI start-ups, but not us, says BlueRun Ventures China,” South China Morning Post, July 21 [Paywall]
“Xi Turns to Former Philippine Leader as Marcos Embraces US,” Bloomberg, July 19 [Paywall] 
“Florida ban on property purchases by citizens of China and some other countries is challenged,” AP News, July 19

- What Are We Reading? -

- What's Happening Around Town? -

- What ICAS Is Up To -

ICAS Blog Post

Event Summary: Dennis Wilder on Stabilizing U.S.-China Relations

By Amanda Jin

July 19, 2023

On June 28, 2023, Paul Haenle, the Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sat down with Dennis Wilder, a senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, to discuss Mr. Wilder’s opinion on stabilizing the U.S.-China relations. The discussion occurred shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Blinken concluded his visit to China and before U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen’s trip to China. The event is the third of Carnegie China’s Distinguished Speakers Series.

When asked about his thoughts on Secretary Blinken’s visit to China, Wilder noted that the visit occurred at a time when both the United States and China felt that the relationship reached a point of “dangerous” downward spiraling. According to Wilder, both sides showed interest in setting the floor for stabilizing the bilateral relationship, but it is a thin, fragile floor and just a beginning step…

ICAS Blog Post

Event Summary: How to Reset the U.S.-China Relationship, Foreign Policy

By Jessica Martin

July 28, 2023

On July 20, 2023, Foreign Policy Editor-in-Chief Ravi Agrawal sat down with U.S. Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna live to discuss “How to Reset the U.S.-China Relationship.” Ro Khanna, Representative in the U.S. House for the 17th District of California since 2017, is also a member of the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party and serves on the House Armed Services Committee, among other positions. This 50-minute virtual interview was streamed live on the Foreign Policy website to subscribers. The full recording is available to Foreign Policy subscribers.

Throughout the event, Ravi Agrawal presented a series of questions to Rep. Ro Khanna, to which Rep. Khanna directly replied. The majority of the questions were directly inspired by recent events, such as Rep. Khanna’s public remarks at Stanford’s Hoover Institution in late April, the recent string of U.S. diplomatic visits to China by secretaries like Antony Blinken and Janet Yellen, and the state visit to Washington by India’s Prime Minister Narenda Modi happening that same week. Based on his consistent use of historical case studies as reference throughout the discussion, Rep. Khanna appears to be constantly analyzing the current issue of ‘resetting’ U.S.-China relations through the larger lens of historical precedent, searching for how the successful cases of the past can be applied to today…

ICAS In the News

On Thursday, July 27, 2023, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the recent UN report on the global public debt on CGTN America’s The Heat.

  • “I think it is a case of arrested development, countries maintain huge sums of money in terms of their interest payments that they cannot invest in their own countries, coming back to that question of colonialism that you just talked about, that itself sought to offer us development where countries were not able to did not have agency over their own destinies, and in a sense this sort of debt crisis is also limiting countries in terms of the agency that they have to develop themselves. It can have long lasting consequences as we know I mean young healthy children and  well educated children are fundamental to the long-term trajectory of a country’s economic potential and if folks can’t go to school because they have to pay off debt it is a very serious matter. Frankly, what we need to be looking at are things like write-offs out here, not just restructuring but really write-offs and this brings and focuses the discussion on important areas which I don’t think get talked about enough.”

On Thursday, July 27, 2023, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed China’s first half economic data and economic prospects ahead on CGTN’s The Point.

  • “Their not particularly fair assessments, it’s a glass half full a glass half empty situation and they’ve been making the pessimistic assumption that there are certain headwinds that China is facing cyclical headwinds and larger broader structural reforms that are necessary. I think that China has enormous potential for growth, frankly, it’s seen in the like of its larger modernization program. I think we’re just about two thirds the distance to China’s modernization and there is about three decades more to go.”
Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussing the recent UN report on the global public debt on CGTN America’s The Heat.
Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussing China’s first half economic data and economic prospects ahead on CGTN’s The Point.