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Commentary

Can Korean Peace Come First?

By LaIcie Heeley

September 10, 2018
Kim Jong Un and Moon Jae-In review South Korean military honor guard, 27 April 2018, during the Inter-Korea Summit. (Credit: Cheongwadae / Blue House, Korea Open Government License 1: With Attribution)

Articles and Analysis

China’s 2018 financial commitments to Africa: Adjustment and recalibration
Yun Sun
Brookings, September 5

“Beijing urgently needs a diplomatic win. The difficult political and economic position from the trade war with the United States has tarnished the wisdom of China’s assertive foreign policy and the glory of the superpower image that Beijing had tried to project… FOCAC serves as the key event to repair China’s reputation, restore tarnished confidence, and reconsolidate China’s message.”

“Evolving away from the previous “resources for infrastructure” model, China has been increasingly keen on utilizing financing provided by Chinese development finance institutions, such as China Development Bank and China-Africa Development Fund, to support Chinese companies’ equity investment in Africa.”

Principles for managing U.S.-China competition
Ryan Hass
Brookings, August

“Enmity is not preordained. Another choice would be for both leaders to work together and establish principles for managing U.S.-China rivalry. Such an effort would not seek to stifle competition, but rather to build guardrails around the relationship so that competition could occur within accepted bounds. This, in turn, would create conditions more conducive for both sides candidly to address concerns about the actions of the other.”

“Regular leader-level exchanges remain the most direct and effective way for Washington to influence how Beijing identifies its interests. With the relationship currently veering from competition toward hostility, both leaders should engage in a sustained dialogue to determine what each needs to see from the other to gain confidence that neither side views the other as an enemy.”

The Security Risks of a Trade War With China
Ali Wyne
Foreign Affairs, August 6

“Trade tensions between the United States and China continue to rise. In June, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration announced that it would impose tariffs of 25 percent on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, with the first wave targeting some 800 goods worth $34 billion. China pushed back with its own set of tariffs targeting the U.S. agricultural sector and industrial heartland. In response, Trump has reportedly ordered his administration to consider a 25 percent tariff on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese exports.”

Why the US Trade War on China Is Doomed to Fail
Vasilis Trigkas, Qian Feng
The Diplomat, August 28th

“U.S. punitive tariffs are based on a grave misdiagnosis of Chinese economic fundamentals.”

Groundless to accuse Beijing of stalling Korean progress: China Daily editorial
China Daily, August 26

“It is one thing to say a trade war with China is distracting, it is another thing to blame Beijing for the less than fruitful progress in negotiations between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”

As the trade war worsens, deficit increases
David Dollar
The Hill, August 16

“The trade war that the U.S. has unleashed on China continues to ratchet up. The next round of 25-percent tariffs on $16 billion of imports from China will go into effect Aug. 23.”

“China is committed to retaliate and will implement its own 25-percent tax on $16 billion of imports from the U.S. As the tit-for-tat escalation continues, it is impossible for China to match the U.S. dollar-for-dollar because it imports so much less from the U.S. than it exports.”

Past Events

The World in a Grain: Story of the Most Important and Overlooked Commodity in the World
Event hosted by The Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum, September 6

On Thursday, September 6, China Environment Forum and Environmental Change and Security Program hosted Vince Beiser, author of the newly-published book The World in a Grain, chronicling the gripping saga of the most important, yet overlooked commodity in the world – sand – and the crucial role it plays in our lives. Vince highlighted China’s central role in the sand story: it is the world’s top producer and consumer of construction sand, and home to the world’s biggest sand mine; China is also the world leader in using sand to create artificial land. Vince related tales of sand, and of the people who extract it, use it, sell it—and sometimes, even kill for it.

View the webcast here

Book Launch: Memory, Identity, and Commemorations of World War II – Anniversary Politics in Asia Pacific
Event hosted by Elliott School of International Affairs, August 31

On Friday, August 31, Elliott School of International Affairs hosted a book launch for the book, Memory, Identity, and Commemorations of World War II – Anniversary Politics in Asia Pacific, which was written by Akira Iriye. This book analyzed how countries in the Asia Pacific and beyond commemorated the seventieth anniversaries of the end of World War II by using case studies of China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Singapore, the Philippines, United States, Russia, and Germany. Speakers include two editors of this book, Dr. Mike Mochizuki and Dr. Daqing Yang, and Dr. Robert Sutter, Dr. Lily Gardner Feldman and Dr. Christine Kim.

The New Southbound Policy and U.S.-Taiwan Relations
Event hosted by American Mandarin Society, August 23

On August 23, American Mandarin Society hosted a discussion about Taiwan Strait relations. Dr. Ping-Kuei Chen, assistant professor in the Department of Diplomacy at the National Chengchi University, was invited as the speaker for this event. He talked about the Southbound Policy, which was proposed by the leader of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, during her administration, aiming to strengthen ties with countries in Southeast, South, and Austral-Asia.

Reimagining U.S.-South Korea Alliance
Event hosted by Brookings Institution, August 22

On August 22, Foreign Policy at Brookings hosted an event to discuss the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the implications for regional security and economic prosperity. Panelists included Michael Green from the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Jung Pak of Brookings. Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon moderated the discussion. The panelists asserted that the U.S. president should maintain a high level of dialogue with North Korea and maintain the momentum of ongoing talks on denuclearization. They also expressed concern that the U.S. administration will pull out the U.S. forces in South Korea prematurely as a concession to North Korea.

Listen to Podcast here

Upcoming Events

A conversation about China’s sharp power and Taiwan
Event hosted by Brookings Institution, September 11

Escalation Through Entanglement
Event hosted by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 12

A Decade of U.S.-China Relations: From Engagement to Rivalry
Event hosted by The Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, September 13

Mr. X and the Pacific: George F. Kennan and American policy in East Asia
Event hosted by Brookings Institution, September 18

Economic Policy Making in China (1949-2016): The Role of Economists
Event hosted by SAIS China Studies, September 26

Commentary

Can Korean Peace Come First?

By Laicie Heeley

The sequencing of nuclear and peace negotiations has become a sticking point in talks between the United States, North Korea, and South Korea. This impasse, driven by U.S. insistence that the nuclear issue be resolved first, is rooted in deep skepticism of North Korea’s intentions and trustworthiness. These impulses are not misguided. There are real risks involved in moving forward with the peace process in the absence of progress on denuclearization, which could jeopardize the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance.

These risks might not preclude action. Declaring a formal end to the Korean War, while a relatively minor concession on the part of the United States, would represent a major step forward. Importantly, it would also preserve the U.S. and South Korean right to withhold additional incentives as negotiations move forward. Should talks break down, any pressure that has been removed can be re-imposed. As South Korean President Moon Jae-in recently observed, “Nothing”—not even the end of the Korean War— “is irreversible other than the death of a human being.”

Former adviser to President George W. Bush, Michael Green, has argued that an end-of-war declaration “is a perfect formula for North Korea to claim that our military exercises, our sanctions, our criticism of human rights are all breaking this opportunity for peace,” weakening the U.S. position in the region, risking alienation from Seoul, and leaving open the possibility of stalled future progress in nuclear negotiations.

Seoul has already indicated that it wants to separate its engagement with the North from progress on the nuclear issue. President Moon is eager to press ahead, and there is a risk that the issue could drive a wedge between the allies. The United States has pushed back, indicating that it might take the unprecedented step of sanctioning Seoul if it proceeds on its own.

The United States must tread carefully if it hopes to avoid this nightmare scenario. And the prospects for overall success, at this point, seem slim. Fortunately, there is some hope to be found in history.

In the late 1980s, just two years prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall, Ronald Reagan, the U.S. president at the time, expressed skepticism that the international system of competing superpowers would change, but offered a vision of the future: “After these four decades, then, there stands before the entire world one great and inescapable conclusion. Freedom leads to prosperity. Freedom replaces the ancient hatreds among the nations with comity and peace. Freedom is the victor.”

The unraveling of the apartheid system, the Oslo and Camp David accords, and other major steps toward peace had their own detractors, and their announcements were largely met with surprise. Today, the United States finds itself at an uncomfortable starting point for progress toward lasting peace, but a starting point nonetheless.

There are clear incentives for all parties to move towards a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Few experts believe that Kim Jong Un will wake up on the wrong side of the bed one morning and launch a nuclear weapon at Los Angeles. Rather, there is overwhelming agreement that the economic and political benefits of retaining nuclear weapons as a deterrent far outweigh the consequences of actually using them. On the contrary, the use of nuclear weapons by North Korea would guarantee the destruction of the regime, a scenario that 65 years of history indicates that Pyongyang will seek to avoid at all costs. This view is only bolstered by Kim’s recent declaration that the state is shifting its main priority from its nuclear weapons program to bolstering economic development.

China’s motives are largely focused on its sovereign integrity. Regime collapse would send North Korean refugees pouring across China’s border and bring U.S. troops to China’s doorstep. Beijing also sees the possibility that improved relations between Seoul and Pyongyang could help drive the United States off the peninsula, a factor that Washington must carefully navigate.

For its part, South Korea wants to improve relations to avoid a conflict that would likely be the most devastating war in human history. On a political level, the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in has staked his reputation on a positive outcome of the negotiation process, providing an additional incentive to move quickly and avoid any breakdown in talks.

The American president is the wildcard in this equation. Donald Trump has invested a great deal political capital in the success of negotiations, (although not as much as president Moon) but his erratic tweets and outbursts could easily derail them. Palace intrigue is largely as unhelpful as the President’s tweets, both for deciphering the administration’s policy, and for signaling U.S. intent. There is little question that the Trump administration currently lacks the expertise to navigate these delicate negotiations and will continue to do so for some time. Stephen Biegun, the recently appointed special representative for North Korea, is a shrewd negotiator and foreign policy expert, but has little experience that is specific to North Korea. The United States will once again lose time as Beigun gets his bearings and builds the relationships he’ll need to do his job effectively.

These considerations aside, it would be unfair not to admit that the Trump administration is wrestling with a very tough negotiation. Trump’s pledge to Kim Jong Un at Singapore to move forward on an end-of-war declaration, only to reverse his decision at the urging of his aides, has made the negotiating teams’ jobs even harder. They now find themselves in a position where the United States is the bad guy, reneging on what North Korea justifiably sees as a promise. In a key moment of discord, the move recently prompted Secretary Pompeo’s North Korean counterpart, when pressed on denuclearization, to hold up his cell phone and taunt, “why don’t you call your president?”

Despite Trump’s change of heart, the South Korean government is pushing forward with its vision for an end-of-war declaration, and has set its sights on the United Nations General Assembly in late September for adoption. This timeline may yet prove too ambitious, but the United States would be well advised to consider embarking on what would be the first step in a much longer process. A carefully negotiated peace agreement can and should come later. Expectations, and potential consequences, can be managed along the way. And nothing is irreversible, not even the end of a war.

 

Laicie Heeley is the founder and editor of the foreign policy magazine Inkstick and host of the Inkstick- and PRI-produced podcast Things That Go Boom. Follow her @laicie and @inkstickmedia.