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Commentary

Will Past Success inform China’s Future Policies?

By Sourabh Gupta

January 18, 2019
Source: blake.thornberry, Flikr CC2.0

In the News

Federal Prosecutors Pursuing Criminal Case Against Huawei for Alleged Theft of Trade Secrets
Dan Strumpf, Nicole Hong and Aruna Viswanatha
The Wall Street Journal, January 16

“Probe involves allegations that Huawei stole robot phone-testing technology from T-Mobile.”

Trade War Tops Global Risks for Business Leaders
Joanna Sugden
The Wall Street Journal, January 16

“Report from organizers of the Davos gathering says slowdown in China’s economy is of particular concern.”

U.S. official cautions Israel over Chinese investments
Reuters, January 16

“A U.S. official cautioned Israel on Wednesday over investments from China, citing cyber-security concerns and the prospect of Israel’s allies limiting intelligence-sharing with it.”

Trump’s attorney general pick William Barr: China is biggest US rival, despite ‘fixation on Russia’
Kevin Breuninger
CNBC, January 15

“President Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney general, William Barr, on Tuesday singled out China as the United States’ “primary rival,” casting Russia as a much smaller threat by comparison, even while acknowledging the Kremlin’s attempts to sway the 2016 U.S. election.”

“Barr highlighted China as America’s biggest rival as trade talks between the two nations appeared to stall on key issues, Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said in a conference call Tuesday.”

“U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said “there hasn’t been any progress made on structural changes that need to be made,” according to Grassley.”

China’s Vice-Premier Liu He accepts invitation to visit Washington this month for trade war talks
Zhou Xin, Catherine Wong, and Sarah Zheng
South China Morning Post, January 15

“Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He has accepted an invitation to lead a delegation to Washington at the end of this month with the purpose of reaching a deal to end the trade war, according to a source who has been briefed on the arrangement.”

“Liu, who is overseeing China’s trade negotiations with the United States, is expected to meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin during the two-day visit, the source said.”

What ARIA Will and Won’t Do for the US in Asia
Ankit Panda
The Diplomat, January 14

“U.S. allies will welcome the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act.”

US trade deficit with China grows to a record and it’s likely even worse than the data show
Huileng Tan
CNBC, January 13

“China announced Monday that its 2018 trade surplus with the United States was its largest in more than a decade, despite the tariff war initiated by President Donald Trump against Beijing.”

“China’s surplus with the U.S. grew 17 percent from a year ago to hit $323.32 billion in 2018, according to government data. It was the highest on record dating to 2006, according to Reuters. Exports to the United States rose 11.3 percent year on year in 2018, while imports from the U.S. to China rose a meager 0.7 percent during that period.”

“China’s General Administration of Customs said Monday that the biggest worry in trade this year is external uncertainty and protectionism, forecasting the country’s trade growth may slow in 2019.”

US Admiral John Richardson to hold talks with China’s top military leaders
Laura Zhou
South China Morning Post, January 12

“A top US navy official will begin a four-day visit to China on Sunday as the two nations look to reduce tensions amid increasing geopolitical and military rivalry.”

“Chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson will meet his counterpart, Vice-Admiral Shen Jinlong, and other members of China’s Central Military Commission during a visit to Beijing and the eastern city of Nanjing, which runs through Wednesday, the US navy said in a statement on Friday.”

China’s 2019 gross domestic product forecast cut to 6.2 per cent by World Bank under ‘Darkening Skies’
Frank Tang
South China Morning Post, January 9

“A report titled “Darkening Skies” has forecast China’s growth for 2019 will drop by a further 0.1 of a percentage point over concerns of “weaker exports”, with many other institutions joining the World Bank in predicting a deepening slowdown in the world’s second biggest economy.”

“The World Bank’s projection for Chinese growth this year is in line with estimates by both Chinese and foreign forecasters, which fall in a range of 6.0 per cent to 6.5 per cent, down from an estimated 6.6 per cent in 2018.”

With Kim’s Visit, China Shows U.S. It Has Leverage on Trade
Keith Bradsher and Choe Sang-Hun
The New York Times, January 8

“China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has offered carrots to President Trump to stop a trade war that has contributed to a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy. On Tuesday, he also seemed to brandish a stick.”

U.S. destroyer sails in disputed South China Sea amid trade talks
Reuters, January 7

“A U.S. guided-missile destroyer sailed near disputed islands in the South China Sea in what China called a “provocation” as U.S. officials joined talks in Beijing during a truce in a bitter trade war.”

U.S. Renews China Travel Warning, Citing Risk of Arbitrary Detention
Liam Stack
The New York Times, January 3

“The United States renewed a travel advisory for China on Thursday that warned American citizens could face arbitrary detention there, a move that came amid tense relations between the countries dominated by trade disputes and the recent American-requested arrest of a high-profile Chinese executive in Canada.”

China’s Xi threatens Taiwan with force but also seeks peaceful ‘reunification’
Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee
Reuters, January 1

“China reserves the right to use force to bring Taiwan under its control but will strive to achieve peaceful “reunification” with the self-ruled island that has a bright future under any future Chinese rule, President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday.”

Articles and Analysis

China’s Plan to Break off US Allies
Tao Peng
The Diplomat, January 16

“There’s a reason Beijing is pressuring Canada – not the US – over Meng Wanzhou’s arrest. Australia and New Zealand could be next.”

Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall?
Paul Krugman
The New York Times, January 15

“The case for crisis seems compelling – but I said that in 2011, too.”

Is China Really Cheating?
Stephen Roach
Bloomberg, January 15

“The evidence of Chinese malfeasance on trade, technology and intellectual property is a lot thinner than most people assume.”

China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way
Kenneth Rapoza
Forbes, January 14

“China is still the world’s No. 2 economy and is still the monster of emerging markets, but regardless of those bonafides, Xi Jinping’s country is losing the trade war in nearly every way imaginable.”

China’s economy is fine, Trump and Xi won’t fight a trade war and the Fed is a friend
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch
CNBC, January 14

“China’s economy is fine, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping won’t fight a trade war and the Federal Reserve is a friend. The triad of China’s economy, trade war and the Fed’s policy is a false alarm. China’s economy has plenty of active demand management instruments to prevent a major growth slowdown.”

“For two years now, Trump got nowhere with China on trade. In fact, Trump put trade negotiations on a wrong path. The main problems are America’s dangerous security challenges around the world involving military confrontations with China and Russia. American forays into what China considers its territorial waters are sovereignty challenges Beijing is unlikely to tolerate. At the moment, the chances of a nuclear Armageddon hinge on the U.S., China and Russia military hotlines to prevent “accidents and miscalculations.””

“Barring an unlikely inflation flare-up, or price tensions in energy markets, the Fed can leave the economy in an adjustment process under conditions of full employment and easy credit terms.”

“The White House should not be pushed by its domestic adversaries to raise those tensions. A constructive relationship with China and Russia is in the interest of America and the rest of the world.”

Is The China-US South China Sea Struggle Becoming Unmanageable? – Analysis
Mark J. Valencia
Eurasia Review, January 14

“The China-US military face off in the South China Sea is dangerous. With escalating incidents and burgeoning bellicose rhetoric on both sides, it may be on the verge of getting out of control.”

“The US-China disputes in the South China Sea are driven by the much deeper contest to dominate the future Asian regional order. At base the dialectic is simple and stark. America wants to remain the leading strategic power in Asia and China wants to replace it. With their respective influential domestic nationalists prodding them towards confrontation, neither leadership is likely to back down.”

“The strategic context is that both see each other as a potential threat and an enemy. Contributing to the increasing tension, the U.S. has stepped up the frequency of its provocative Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) challenging China’s claims.”

China’s Grand Strategy
Daniel Araya
Forbes, January 14

“Technology has transformed the global economy. Over the past two decades, technology has introduced a pivotal shift in the nature of power with emerging economies gaining a competitive advantage. Leveraging this “geotechnological” shift is China’s grand strategy. Bolstered by its commercial heft, China’s global ambition is now built on ports, highways and pipelines in the expansion of its supply chain empire. More to the point, China’s grand strategy is built on developing new markets for advanced Chinese technology.”

China is a Dangerous Rival, and America Should Treat It Like One
Derek Scissors and Daniel Blumenthal
The New York Times,January 14

“Enough with the endless talks and handshakes. We need to untie the American economy from China.”

Is North Korea a player in the U.S.-China trade war?
Adam Taylor
The Washington Post, January 10

“Kim Jong Un’s visit to Beijing this week was brief.”

China’s slowdown is the biggest threat to the world economy
Matt O’Brien
The Washington Post, January 9

Why the World Needs America and China to Get Along
Robert E. Rubin
The New York Times, January 2

“Only Washington and Beijing, working together, can slow climate change and the spread of nuclear weapons.”

Serbia: China’s Open Door to the Balkans
Philippe Le Corre and Vuk Vuksanovic
The Diplomat, January 2

“China is playing an increasingly active role in Serbia, part of its expansion in Central and Eastern Europe.”

Past Events

The Launch of the Stephenson Ocean Security Project
Event hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies,January 9, 2019


The Stephenson Ocean Security Project (SOS) is focused on the links between ocean health and global security. The Project will highlight how marine resource disputes drive instability in key regions of the globe and the ways that climate change is exacerbating this challenge through degraded ecosystems and the opening of new areas to potential exploitation.

Upcoming Events

U.S.-China Relations after the U.S. Midterm Election and Maritime Security
Event hosted by the Institute for China-America Studies, January 19, 2019

Happiness in China: Family, Fate, and the Good Death
Event hosted by the Initiative for US-China Dialogue and the Walsh School of Foreign Service Asian Studies Program, January 23, 2019

Environmental Policy and Enforcement Trends in China and the Impact of Business
Event hosted by the US-China Business Council, January 24, 2019

A conversation with the Chief of Naval Operations
Event hosted by Brookings, January 28, 2019

Geopolitical Implications of a New Era on the Korean Peninsula
Event hosted by the Wilson Center, January 30, 2019

China’s Rise and the International Order
Event hosted by the National Bureau of Asian Research, February 7, 2019

Power Struggle in Central Asia: China, Russia, and the United States (Teleconference)
Event hosted by the Pacific Council, February 7, 2019

Edgerton Series: A Conversation with Ambassador John Negroponte
Event hosted by the Pacific Council,February 13, 2019

Commentary

Will Past Success inform China’s Future Policies?

By Sourabh Gupta

Forty years ago, the Communist Party of China held its third plenum of the 11th Central Committee. The plenum was a defining event of the second half of the 20th century, inspiring reforms that spurred decades of economic growth in China. On the brink of another period of economic transition, the pragmatic approach to development that has been the hallmark of Chinese policymaking over the past four decades remains as valuable as ever.

The 1978 plenum launched the country on an unprecedented journey of ‘reform and opening-up’ and ‘socialist modernisation’. The prevailing ‘two whatevers’ orthodoxy — whatever Mao Zedong decided would remain valid, whatever directives Mao gave should be followed — was skilfully circumvented by Deng Xiaoping. Deng argued that while one should always ‘seek truth from facts’, as per Mao Zedong Thought, ‘practice is the sole criterion for testing truth’. Pragmatism, not ideological blinkers, became the order of the day and reality, not received dogma, the ideological basis to test policy correctness.

Having turned Mao’s ‘truth from facts’ dictum on its head, Deng reformulated the Party’s ‘general task’ away from ‘waging class struggle’ and set about unleashing the Four Modernisations — that of agriculture, industry, science and technology, and national defence.

The success of China’s third plenum-inspired reforms has been ascribed to a variety of factors. Under Deng’s directive, China institutionalised power competition and orderly succession within a broader framework of oligarchic collective leadership. The process allowed the Party to move beyond the acute personality and ideology-based clashes that had convulsed the body politic during the later Mao years.

Reforms in agriculture aligned individual incentives with the production structure and unleashed a burst of creativity in the countryside that later spilt into towns and cities. The third plenum communique ruled that ‘small plots of land for private use by commune members, their domestic side-occupations … are necessary adjuncts of the socialist economy, and must not be interfered with’. The ‘big bang’ approach to reform was eschewed and pro-reform constituencies were fostered that could overcome inefficiencies associated with imperfect markets and price distortions.

The opening of China’s eastern seaboard to foreign trade and investment enabled China to profit from its comparative advantage in labour-intensive industries. As the supply chains of foreign-invested and export-oriented enterprises took root on Chinese soil, an ever-increasing share of parts and components began to be sourced domestically. China now retains a hold over the development of these supply chains in medium-technology intensive industries within global manufacturing. An enabling external environment featuring a symbiotic relationship with the United States should not be discounted either.

But above all, two factors were key. First, because the reform process was part of a political calculus to strengthen the Party’s legitimacy, the consensus for reform was broad, deep and durable. Second, the reforms that emphasised political and fiscal decentralisation struck the right balance between top-down control and local initiative and were embedded in historical patterns of growth and development. Imperial China was also a regionally segmented economy held together by the centre’s iron control over personnel transfers and promotions. This prevented patron-client politics from capturing the system and motivated ambitious local officials to innovate both for themselves and for the country.

Looking ahead, the nation and the Party stand on the cusp of a transition just as consequential and challenging as that of four decades ago.

Economically, the East Asian growth model has not been conducive to countries aspiring to shift from manufacturing and investment-led growth to services and consumption-led growth. Each high-growth, manufacturing-intensive economy that has attempted it, notably Japan and South Korea, suffered a sharp slowdown.

Politically, middle income status and the growing sophistication of a propertied middle class have not been conducive to domestic stability in authoritarian, late-developing societies. No East Asian society (barring the small city-states) that has traversed the perilous thoroughfare from US$10,000 to US$20,000 per capita income has come away with its political system unscathed. South Korea and Taiwan witnessed dramatic pro-democracy movements.

Externally, meanwhile, the US–China relationship stands at a profound inflection point.

That said, there is nothing foreordained about China’s — and the Party’s — future. China is liberalising its inward investment and services regimes at a far earlier level of development than Japan or South Korea ever attempted. The collective decision-making structure of the upper echelons of the Party also differs from the charismatic, one-person military dictatorships that ruled in Seoul and Taipei during their transitions.

The Trump administration’s unprecedented geo-economic actions against Beijing could well produce a reform of China’s foreign investment and joint venture regime that is as thoroughgoing as the late-1990s reform of its trading regime. This would bind the two countries in a symbiotic trade and investment relationship for the next three decades.

Whatever China’s fortunes might turn out to be, one thing is certain: so long as it continues to make ‘practice the sole criterion for testing truth’, its astonishing economic re-opening will propel the nation forward in the 21st century. As President Xi Jinping seemed to suggest in his speech commemorating the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up, reality as the test of policy correctness will likely continue to govern the day.


(Sourabh Gupta is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for China–America Studies in Washington DC. This article was first published on East Asia Forum.)