On February 22, 2020, a delegation from the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) visited ICAS to discuss issues related to the Korean Peninsula in light of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as how U.S.-China relations will also be a factor in these issues. In addition, ICAS showcased its new ‘Maritime Issue Trackers’ to the roundtable participants as a potential mechanism for cross-institutional research cooperation. In addition to ICAS researchers, Dr. Jiyong Zheng, Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Center, and Director of Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University, Ms. Yun Sun, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, and Dr. Xingxing Wang, Director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of the Shanghai International Studies University also joined the discussion.
The Current State of U.S.-China Relations
On the U.S.-China relationship, Yun Sun suggested that it can be characterized by the ideas of ‘strategic competition’ or ‘strategic rivalry’ in many aspects. ‘Decoupling’ of the relations is also well underway. However, the Phase One Trade Agreement shows China’s willingness to pay the cost to help maintain at least a temporary level of stability in U.S.-China relations. There is both good news and bad news on U.S.-China relations. The good news is that China is looking for specific issues in which it feels that it can cooperate with the U.S. on and is trying to show that its relations with the U.S. are not beyond repair. The bad news is that in some respects, the idea of strategic competition is increasingly leading to a ‘Cold War’ mentality between the two countries.
Dr. Xingxing Wang suggested that, over the past forty years, U.S.-China relations can be summarized as falling into three phases, namely: interdependence, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, shifting balance of power, deterioration of mutual trust, and prioritizing interests, competitive cooperation. Regarding the current state U.S.-China relations, U.S. policy towards China is undergoing a structural change. The U.S. checks and balances of China has become significant in numerous aspects. In the field of economic and trade, economic and trade measures are used to suppress the Chinese economy and reverse the imbalanced situation in U.S.-China trade by reducing the US trade deficit with China. Examples of such instances include the U.S.-China trade war, boycotting “Made in China 2025,” and constraining high-tech companies such as Huawei and their executives. In the realm of military security, such strategic containment is evident in the introduction of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and U.S. interference in the affairs of the South China Sea region. In the realm of politics, the U.S. has been playing the “Taiwan trump card” by pushing forward legislations, such as the Taiwan Travel Act, among others.
The field of sociocultural diplomacy and people-to-people contacts has also been affected. This includes the blocking of many Chinese visiting programs to the United States last year, the rejection of visas for Chinese scholars, and the identification of Chinese news media as “foreign agents”, etc. Sociocultural exchanges in areas such as high-tech, manufacturing, aerospace, and international relations are particularly affected. The decoupling between the U.S. and China has been expanding and ever-growing. It raises the question of whether McCarthyism is returning to American politics.
The Impact of U.S.-China Relations on the Korean Peninsula
Sourabh Gupta, ICAS Resident Senior Fellow, provided an overview of Washington’s perspective on the major issues of the Korean Peninsula as the U.S. presidential election approaches. He argued that President Trump does not want to see any significant testing in North Korea and other actions violating international sanctions. These actions will make it seem like Trump’s policy on DPRK has failed, therefore potentially humiliating Trump while he seeks reelection.
During the Trump Administration, no tangible, concrete achievements towards denuclearization have been made so far between the U.S. and the DPRK. The two have been unable to reach an agreement. Rather, North Korean capabilities have increased during the Trump Administration. Gupta suggested that it would be beneficial for the U.S. government to make a tangible offer to or reach an interim deal with North Korea. The U.S. should not push North Korea to the brink of collapse, which could lead to more provocative actions.
Regarding the Korean Peninsula issue, Yun Sun noted that there is a growing belief that South Korea has struggled in its relationships with both the U.S. and China. The U.S. increasingly feels that the ROK is pro-China, while China increasingly feels that the ROK is pro-U.S. As such, there are four pathways forward for South Korea to proceed:
- China could replace the U.S. on the Korean Peninsula and solidify Chinese dominance in the region. This is an undesirable option from the U.S. perspective.
- The U.S. could replace China on the Korean Peninsula, solidifying U.S. dominance in the region. However, this option is unlikely to occur as the U.S. cannot replace China due to China’s geographical advantage.
- South Korea could seek its own security and achieve nuclear capability. This option is undesirable from the U.S. perspective.
- South Korea could seek a middle-of-the-road approach by balancing and hedging between the U.S. and China in the region.
Dr. Kim Kap-sik, Director and Research Fellow at KINU, suggested that North Korea’s approach on the nuclear issue has changed since Kim Jong-Un’s ascendance to power. Kim Jong-un’s government sees the possibility of denuclearization. However, this idea has led to opposition within conservative interest groups in North Korea. Further, since there have been no changes from the U.S. on sanctions, the DPRK is reverting towards previous, more conservative policies. However, North Korea is unlikely to make any large-scale provocation towards the U.S., at least in the short term.
Despite their increasingly desperate economic situation, the DPRK has managed to stabilize exchange rates and develop its own dynamics to sustain itself under sanctions. In order to get over this situation, North Korea is using its own domestic products. And it is focusing on the development of its tourism business. Tourism is good for North Korea’s economy; however, the coronavirus outbreak will affect its tourism industry.
According to Dr. Wang, because South Korea depends on the United States for its security and China for its economy, the dilemma between China and the U.S. will worsen since it is foreseeable that competition in U.S.-China relations will outweigh the cooperation factors. Moreover, with Washington’s dissatisfaction with many policies carried out by the Moon government, and with President Trump likely to win his reelection, uncertainty of U.S. policy towards the Korean Peninsula and U.S.-ROK alliance will continue. It is a challenging task for South Korea to balance its relations with both China and the U.S. in the future.
As part of his recommendations, Dr. Zheng argued that the South Korea intends to regain its primacy on the Peninsula, yet its reliance on the U.S. makes this goal hard to achieve. Hence, South Korea should be developing its own approach and capability to these matters and should not follow the U.S. on the Korean issue. China’s participation and absence are the biggest external factors for China’s 2018 success and 2019 failure. China has been a determined external factor in this region’s crisis management. Turning crisis into opportunity requires South Korea to maintain a clear mind and strategic positioning in U.S.-China strategic competition, making good use of big country relations and increasing its cooperation with China regarding issues such as SMA,, phase II of the deployment of THAAD, as well as the control and containment of the COVID-19 epidemic, so as to reshape ROK’s strategic interests.
Discussion on the Potential for Cross-Institutional Research Cooperation
At the conclusion of the roundtable discussion, ICAS scholars Matt Geraci and Yilun Zhang gave a presentation to the participants introducing the ICAS East China Sea Maritime Tracker and its Phase Two plans. The purpose of the trackers is to assist scholars and governments seeking to understand the various economic, security, and legal sectors in the maritime domain, which is presented on a dashboard containing interactive data visualizations. The trackers encourage greater levels of cooperation between regional stakeholders in order to create a platform for collaborative intellectual exchange in maritime studies. It was emphasized that the trackers will become better curated to the needs of users through feedback and multi-institutional research opportunities. Due to the great interest in this ICAS program, it was decided that further conversations would be held on how the potential for research cooperation could be approached in the near future.
