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August 17, 2022

ICAS Bulletin (online ISSN 2836-3418, print ISSN 2836-340X) is published every other week throughout the year at 1919 M St NW, Suite 310, Washington, DC 20036.
The online version of ICAS Bulletin can be found at chinaus-icas.org/bulletins/.

- What's Going On? -

Pelosi Taiwan Trip Aftermath: Diplomacy & Declarations

A U.S. delegation greeted by Douglas Yu-tien Hsu, center, a Taiwanese diplomat, after landing in Taipei, Taiwan on August 14, 2022. (Source: Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

– On August 14, almost two weeks after Pelosi’s trip, a second U.S. Congressional delegation arrived in Taipei. The officials had previously met with President Yool Suk Yeul in South Korea before flying to Taipei.
– In reaction to the Pelosi-led Congressional delegation to Taiwan, China has frozen top-level communications that have affected the progress of climate mitigation, military de-escalation, and countering narcotics trafficking.
– Amid Chinese backlash, Speaker Pelosi defended her visit and criticized China’s aggressive reaction. When asked about her thoughts on the sanctions enacted on her by Beijing, she commented that it was “incidental” and had “no relevance whatsoever.”
– On August 8, in response to China’s retaliatory military drills in the region, President Biden said he was “not worried,” but was “concerned” by China’s large deployment of equipment. The White House later summoned Chinese Ambassador Qin Gang to condemn the actions and assert the U.S. does “not want a crisis.”
– Countries in the region continue to tread lightly as they wait for both parties to act while expressing their strong desire for regional peace.

Pelosi Taiwan Trip Aftermath: Security & Defense

Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) conducts routine operations in the South China Sea. (Source: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Justin Stack via Flickr)

– After a second U.S. delegation visited Taipei on August 14, China’s military carried out more exercises in protest.
– The military exercises Beijing conducted in response to Speaker Pelosi’s delegation began directly after their departure from Taipei and concluded August 10 with further “regular combat readiness patrols” continuing indefinitely.
– President Biden expressed his “concern” for the live fire drills which are among the largest exercises conducted by China. Viewed as a “significant escalation,” the administration continued to assert that the U.S. would continue to conduct missions around Taiwan.
– While attending an ASEAN summit in Cambodia on August 5, Secretary of State Blinken stated “we will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.”
– On August 5, amid China’s military response, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi vowed that “China would not succeed in isolating Taiwan.”
– On August 4, China fired five ballistic missiles into the waters of Japan east of Taiwan. The action was seen as a reminder from Beijing to the U.S. of its strike capabilities to hit U.S. military installations in the region.

Movements in Technology & Finance

The front of the New York Stock Exchange building in New York City. (Credit: David Blaikie, CC BY 2.0)

– Five Chinese firms—China Life Insurance, PetroChina, China Petroleum & Chemical, Aluminum Corp. of China and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical—said they intend to delist their American depositary shares on the NYSE. A week later, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines also became suspected of preparing to delist.
– On August 9, the CHIPS and Science Act was signed into law by President Biden. The $53 billion bill is meant to strengthen the U.S. semiconductor industry by reducing foriegn dependence and address the global shortages of microchips.
– China criticized the CHIPS and Science Act, calling it a “threat to trade.” The Chinese Embassy in Washington, reflecting the sentiment, said the legislation held something reminiscent of a “Cold War mentality.”
– South Korea’s intention to join “Chip 4”—a U.S.-led semiconductor supply chain which could include the U.S., South Korea, Japan and Taiwan—has raised concern within China and was expected to be discussed in an upcoming meeting held between Foreign Minister Park Jin and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Qingdao.
– According to the U.S.-based cybersecurity firm Mandiant Inc., the recent attempts to discredit prominent German anthropologist Adrian Zenz, who has investigated China’s targeting of Muslims, was conducted by Shanghai Haixun Technology Co.

Upsets in the Climate & Social Realms

Massive icebergs from Jakobshavn Glacier melting in Disko Bay in Ilulissat, Greenland. (Source: Getty Images, Royalty-Free)

– The halt in bilateral talks between the U.S. and China after Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has deadlocked climate progress between the world’s two biggest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions.
– The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which took effect December 23, 2021, has stalled the import of solar shipments from China’s Xinjiang region. U.S. Customs has detained panels at the border and have shipped them back to China in recent weeks.
– The decrease in Chinese student visas to the U.S. concerns education administration officials. In recent years students—who have been an important revenue source for American universities—have chosen to study elsewhere due to the deteriorating nature of U.S.-China relations.
– On August 4, Chinese Businessman Shi Jianxiang was convicted on two counts of fraud related to obtaining visas that he used to enter the U.S. The Chinese fugitive fled China in 2016 when the financial group he controlled in Shanghai collapsed.

Decisions and Accusations in Trade & Investment

(Source: Getty Images, Royalty-Free)

– Following recent Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait, experts and industry stakeholders fear disruption to the global shipping industry should exercises become a regular occurrence in this high traffic waterway.
– China’s textiles and garments exports surged by 17.5% in July in spite of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, a law passed in June which effectively banned U.S. imports from the region accounting for 90% of China’s cotton.
– On August 9, federal prosecutors brought charges against Far East Cable Co.—China’s largest cable manufacturer—alleging that it aided ZTE Corp. in defying U.S. export controls by delivering restricted tech to Iran.
– On August 5, Apple warned its suppliers in China that they must comply with Beijing’s customs regulations, including a freshly-enforced rule that Taiwan-sourced products must be labeled as originating in ‘Taiwan, China’ or ‘Chinese Taipei.’

- What Are We Reading? -

- What's Happening Around Town? -

Upcoming Events

August 17 hosted by The US-China Business Council

August 22 hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies

August 22 hosted by Hudson Institute

August 23 hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies 

August 24 hosted by East-West Center

- What ICAS Is Up To -

ICAS Maritime Tracker Issue Brief

The U.S. View on 'Historic Rights' within the Nine Dash Line
Reviewing Washington's Legal Position in the Context of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea

by Sourabh Gupta and Yilun Zhang

August 8, 2022

On July 12, 2016, an arbitral tribunal constituted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in the matter of the South China Sea Arbitration (Philippines v. China) ruled that: 

China’s claims to historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction, with respect to the maritime areas of the South China Sea encompassed by the relevant part of the ‘nine-dash line’ are contrary to the Convention and without lawful effect to the extent that they exceed the geographic and substantive limits of China’s maritime entitlements under the Convention (para. 278).

The tribunal went on to declare that “the Convention [had] superseded any historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction, in excess of the limits imposed therein.” In its reasoning, the tribunal judged China’s ‘historic rights’ claim to “appear to be” an exclusive one. In this respect, it observed that:

The notion of sovereign rights over living and non-living resources is generally incompatible with another State having historic rights to the same resources, in particular if such historic rights are considered exclusive, as China’s claim to historic rights appears to be (para. 243).   

There cannot be two equally definitive exclusive claims to a single water body. As such, the tribunal was correct to judge that Beijing’s claim exceeded the geographic and substantive limits of its entitlements under the Convention.

ICAS Academic Engagement

Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta speaks at the International Forum on One Korea 2022

August 13-15, 2022 (Seoul, UTC+9)
Hybrid (Seoul, South Korea & Zoom)

ICAS senior fellow Sourabh Gupta participated in the Economy session of the International Forum on One Korea 2022 on August 13, 2022. He spoke on the relevance of the lessons of German unification to a free and unified Korea and, in particular, touched on the key economic planning policy errors committed at the time of German reunification.

ICAS In the News

On Monday, August 8, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by TRT World on the increased U.S.-China and Taiwan Strait tensions in the aftermath of Speaker Pelosi’s visit.

  • “[China] wants to keep the sea at some level of boil and keep the tensions at an elevated level…to send a political signal, militarily, that the Taiwan issue is a dangerous issue to play around with.”
  • “I’m not sure if [Washington] was really surprised [by China’s response]…but they cannot be seen to concede to this sort of [escalation of] tension from the Chinese side simply because it can make matters very unstable in that part of the world.”

On Tuesday, August 9, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by NPR on the signing of the CHIPS and Science Act.

  • “I wouldn’t characterize it as too little, too late. It is sufficient. There is a lot of money, and a lot of it is frontloaded – literally $19 billion frontloaded in this next 12 months to support chip manufacturing in the U.S.”
  • “We don’t need to have all chips or a very significant number of chips made in the U.S. We just need a certain amount of chips which will not hold the U.S. in a situation of blackmail or in a situation of peril if there are – if there is a war in East Asia or if there are others – just general supply chain snafus.”
  • “It absolutely does [shore up the U.S.’s position in the semiconductor chip manufacturing area], but it doesn’t necessarily curb China’s influence. It forces China to be able to come up with greater indigenous innovation to catch up with the U.S. in terms of – and its East Asian peers – in terms of chip manufacturing.”

On Monday, August 8, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was quoted by China Daily on the aftermath of Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit.

  • “Speaker Pelosi’s visit has put U.S.-China relations in an extremely dangerous state…[I]n the longer term, the strategy of strategic ambiguity will be hollowed out completely, with the latter perhaps even formally abandoned.”
  • “As part of its one-China policy, the United States pledged to limit its relationship with the island to unofficial ties. The visit of congressmen and women in their official capacity violates the one-China policy. And an official visit by the third-highest ranking member of the US government violates the one-China policy in spades.”

On Sunday, August 7, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was quoted by the South China Morning Post on China’s response to Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan.

  • “The strongest card that China has on the Taiwan question is the sentiment of its Asian peers. Nobody in Asia wants to see a non-peaceful solution to the Taiwan question, including one implemented by Beijing.”
  • “Having made its bitter denunciations, China’s wisest approach going forward would be to send emissaries to every major and minor Asian capital and restate its one-China principle and the US violation of the spirit of its own one-China Policy. But I think Chinese diplomacy is too arrogant to choose this course of action.”
Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta speaking on TRT World on August 8, 2022.