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December 4, 2024

ICAS Bulletin (online ISSN 2836-3418, print ISSN 2836-340X) is published every other week throughout the year at 1919 M St NW, Suite 310, Washington, DC 20036.
The online version of ICAS Bulletin can be found at chinaus-icas.org/bulletins/.

- What's Going On? -

Navigating U.S.-China Dynamics Amid Global Leaders’ Movements

U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with President Joao Lourenco of Angola during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House on November 30, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

– President Joe Biden visited Angola—marking the first time a U.S. president has visited the country—to promote the U.S.-backed Lobito Corridor, a railway project announced in September 2023 aimed at countering China’s dominance in Africa and fostering economic diversification. Despite skepticism from locals more familiar with China’s visible investments, the initiative would lead to a shift toward private funding and reduced debt for Angola.
– President Biden’s $5 billion Lobito Corridor project in Angola is regarded as a core force in countering China’s influence by securing critical minerals and boosting economic growth. Some now worry  over the future of U.S. commitments to such infrastructure efforts given Donald Trump’s reelection.
– Apple CEO Tim Cook and global business leaders met with China’s Premier Li Qiang to discuss trade and supply chain stability amid Trump’s tariff threats. Cook highlighted China’s importance to Apple, while Li reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to economic growth and opposing decoupling.
– The Pentagon said that Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun refused to meet U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at an ASEAN summit in Laos, citing U.S. actions on Taiwan, and Trump’s re-election raises uncertainties in future U.S.-China military relations.
– As President Biden concludes his tenure, world leaders appear to be cautiously navigating diplomacy with China at the G20 Summit, aiming for global stability amid U.S.-China tensions.

Rising U.S.-China Strains Over Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific

Hawaii Governor Josh Green (center) welcomes Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te (left) to the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency during his visit in Honolulu, Hawaii, on November 30, 2024. (Photo by Ronen Zilberman/AFP via Getty Images)

– China criticized the U.S. for approving both a $385 million arms sale to Taiwan and Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s visits to Hawaii and Guam, which Lai conducted as a stopover visit for three nights on the way to islands in the South Pacific. China urged the U.S. to exercise “utmost caution” regarding Taiwan after President Lai Ching-te’s visit. Beijing condemned the visit as provocative, warning of potential military drills, while reaffirming its opposition to any support for Taiwan independence.
– President-elect Donald Trump’s appointment of ‘China hawks’ and Taiwan supporters like Sen. Marco Rubio to key roles indicates to some observers continued strong ties with Taiwan in his second administration, keeping tensions in the Indo-Pacific high.
– A U.S. Navy reconnaissance plane flying over the Taiwan Strait on November 26 was tracked by Chinese naval and air forces, escalating tensions over Taiwan. While China condemned the flight as a threat to regional stability, the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, asserting its operations comply with international law.
– House lawmakers were briefed on potential war scenarios involving China over Taiwan, highlighting Beijing’s military advancements and the United States’ need for immediate preparedness. A think tank study involving 25 rounds of war games suggests that a U.S.-Taiwan-Japan alliance could repel an invasion, but at a high cost, underscoring the urgency of ramping up munitions and deepening regional alliances.

Existing and Potential Tariff Turmoil and Trade Shifts Shape U.S.-China Relations

(Source: Getty Images, Royalty-Free)

– China announced that tariff exemptions on specific U.S. imports, including rare earth metal ore, medical disinfectant, and nickel-cadmium batteries, will be extended until February 28, 2025. The exemptions are part of China’s countermeasures to the U.S. Section 301 actions, according to the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.
– China denounced President-elect Trump’s plan to impose tariffs up to 200% on Chinese goods over fentanyl trafficking, calling the move unproductive and against WTO rules. Analysts warn of a renewed trade war as Beijing signals possible future retaliation.
– Alcohol-maker Remy Cointreau expects steep sales declines and weaker profitability due to excess inventory and trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs and Chinese duties on EU brandy imports. Signs of U.S. market stabilization are emerging, but recovery is slow, reports say.
– President-elect Donald Trump vowed to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% additional tariff on Chinese goods to address drug trafficking and border security. Economists warn the tariffs could spark trade wars and lead to higher consumer prices, while analysts see the moves as an opening for renegotiation of trade agreements.

Export Controls Tighten on Advanced Technologies and Minerals

(Source: Getty Images, Royalty-Free)

On December 3, China announced bans on exports of gallium, germanium, and other key materials to the U.S., citing national security concerns and in response to U.S. semiconductor export restrictions. The move targets materials vital for chips, solar panels, and military technology.
– The U.S. imposed broad export restrictions to block China’s access to advanced AI and military technologies, blacklisting 140 entities and closing loopholes in foreign production rules. The measures aim to prevent China’s use of U.S.-linked technology for military modernization and human rights abuses.
– The U.S. announced tighter controls on high-bandwidth memory chips and chipmaking equipment, targeting Chinese companies linked to AI and military applications. Exemptions for allies like Japan and the Netherlands aim to balance security concerns with global cooperation.
– In its third ‘crackdown’ on China’s chip industry, the U.S. blacklisted major firms and tightened controls on advanced technologies. The move reportedly seeks to disrupt China’s chipmaking ambitions while ensuring allied nations adopt similar restrictions.
– The Biden administration is considering additional restrictions on semiconductor equipment and AI memory chips for China, targeting Huawei suppliers and Chinese toolmakers. The measures aim to curb China’s technology ambitions while balancing concerns from allies and American chipmakers about market disruptions.

U.S.-China Relations Amid Human Rights and Political Tensions

Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai, founder and owner of Apple Daily newspaper, leaves the high court after being bailed on December 23, 2020 in Hong Kong, China. (Photo by Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)

The Biden administration successfully negotiated a prisoner swap with China, securing the release of Americans Mark Swidan, Kai Li, and John Leung in exchange for three Chinese nationals held in U.S. custody. The deal, a diplomatic win for Biden, follows months of negotiations and marks the release of over 70 Americans detained abroad during his presidency.
The Biden administration added 29 Chinese companies to its Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act ban list, blocking imports tied to forced labor in Xinjiang. The expansion brings the total to over 100 companies targeted since the law’s 2022 enforcement, affecting goods like cotton, tomatoes, and metals.
– Donald Trump’s Commerce Secretary pick, Howard Lutnick, is facing scrutiny for financial ties to China through BGC Group and Cantor Fitzgerald. Critics question whether these connections could compromise his ability to enforce tough trade policies.
– Pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai testified in his national security trial, denying allegations of colluding with foreign forces, including seeking U.S. sanctions on China. Lai, a former media tycoon, faces charges under Hong Kong’s national security law, which critics view as a crackdown on dissent.

- What Are We Reading? -

- What's Happening Around Town? -

Past Events

Upcoming Events

- What ICAS Is Up To -

ICAS 2024 Annual Conference Announcement

ICAS 2024 Annual Conference Trump 2.0: Will U.S.-China Relations Prosper, Suffer or Muddle Through?

ICAS is excited to hold its 2024 Annual Conference in-person at the Georgetown Marriott Hotel in Washington, D.C. next Thursday, December 12, 2024!

Online registration is now available for those unable to attend in-person!

Featuring a keynote by Minister Qiu Wenxing (Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United States), a luncheon speech by Stephen Orlins (National Committee on U.S.-China Relations), and four expert panels, this year’s conference will assess the upcoming challenges and opportunities in U.S.-China relations amidst Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office. A buffet lunch will be provided to registered guests.

ICAS 2024 Annual Conference Main Poster
President Joe Biden attends the closing session of the G20 Summit, Tuesday, November 19, 2024, at the Museum of Modern Art in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

TnT Commentary

China’s Role in the G20 and Beyond
By Sourabh Gupta
November 20, 2024

The following interview was originally conducted and released by Global Times on November 20, 2024.

Global Times (GT) Editor’s Note:
The leaders of the G20 met in Rio de Janeiro on Monday and Tuesday to address major global challenges and crises and promote strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. Why is the G20 embracing a “Global South moment”? In light of the current challenges facing globalization, what role is China playing within the G20? Global Times (GT) reporter Qian Jiayin interviewed Sourabh Gupta (Gupta), a senior fellow at the Washington-based Institute for China-America Studies, to discuss these issues.

MAP Commentary

How the West can navigate Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic
By Nong Hong
November 26, 2024

The China-Russia partnership has reached unprecedented levels, propelled by mutual strategic interests in Arctic governance and a shared objective of countering Western influence. This partnership is reflected in recent joint military activities, enhanced maritime cooperation and increasingly integrated Arctic policies.

Two high-profile military exercises – “Northern/Interaction-2024” and “Ocean-2024” – highlight the depth of China-Russian military cooperation. The Northern/Interaction-2024 exercise emphasised anti-submarine warfare and aerial defence. The drills tested advanced interoperability between the two nations’ naval forces, underscoring their preparedness for joint operations in sensitive regions…

South China Morning Post, Craig Stephens (Use Permission Granted)

ICAS In the News

On Thursday, November 19, 2024, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by CGTN America’s The Heat on the Rio G20 Summit priorities.

  • “Places like the UN Security Council where high politics takes place that process is going to be very very difficult but the G20 is very well placed to push issues like international financial architecture reform and international governance reform in the economic arena.”
  • “…organizations and frameworks like the BRICS to deepen and thicken the sort of pragmatic cooperation that they can do whether it’s the contingent reserve arrangement whether it’s the new development bank whether it’s trying to chart out new payment infrastructure among these countries and just thicken these web of activities and this will create and enlarge the global heft…”

On Thursday, November 19, 2024, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by South China Morning Post on the recently concluded G20 Leaders Summit in Rio.

  • “Donald Trump doesn’t give a whit about global anti-poverty, inequality, digital public infrastructures or green transition goals.”

On Friday, November 20, 2024, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by South China Morning Post on the recently concluded G20 Leaders Summit in Rio.

  • “To what extent there is follow-through on these priorities is debatable,…It’s the same old blah blah blah in the conference halls.”

On Friday, November 20, 2024, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by Global Times on China’s role with the G20.

  • “China should continue to seize this co-leadership opportunity for global collaboration with willing stakeholders, no matter how adverse the climate for global cooperation might turn out in the future. By sheer size and capabilities, China is in a position to reframe the terms of the global debate and facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation.”

On Friday, November 27, 2024, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by South China Morning Post on the release of ‘wrongfully detained’ Americans from China.

  • “This is about easing tensions in advance of Trump’s arrival and clearing some of the underbrush.”
  • “The release is also tied in a broader context to Xi Jinping’s promise to improve people-to-people exchanges,…Xi is showing that he is following through on the consensus and that China, for its part at least, remains committed to productive, stable and forward-looking ties.”
Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta on CGTN America on November 19, 2024.