January 15, 2025

ICAS Bulletin (online ISSN 2836-3418, print ISSN 2836-340X) is published every other week throughout the year at 1919 M St NW, Suite 310, Washington, DC 20036.
The online version of ICAS Bulletin can be found at chinaus-icas.org/bulletins/.

- What's Going On? -

The U.S.-China Sanctions Game Heats Up

President Biden’s Foreign Policy Address at the U.S. Department of State. (Source: State Department via Flickr)

– On January 6, the U.S. Department of Defense expanded its list of “Chinese military companies,” targeting firms like Tencent and CATL to highlight their alleged ties to China’s military-tech fusion strategy.
– On January 3, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned Integrity Technology Group for allegedly aiding the Chinese hacking group Flax Typhoon in cyberattacks on U.S. communications and global surveillance.
– The Biden administration is considering new rules to ban Chinese drones in the U.S. due to national security risks, such as concerns over cyberespionage and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities.
– On January 2, China announced punitive trade measures against 28 U.S. companies, including Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, for their arms sales to Taiwan.

China’s Military Reformation and the Intensified Arms Race in the Asia-Pacific

The USS Bulkeley returns to a naval station. (Source: Marlin Dominguez for the U.S. Department of Defense, Public Domain)

– Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and Taiwan are expanding their amphibious capabilities to counter China’s growing military presence.
– Experts suggest that China’s first sixth-generation stealth fighter jet may have advanced stealth capabilities at hypersonic speeds, signaling that the PLA has surpassed global advanced standards.
– The Asia-Pacific arms race is intensifying as countries like Japan and the Philippines significantly increase defense budgets to counter China’s growing military capabilities.
– On December 28, China launched its next-generation Type 076 amphibious assault ship, which features cutting-edge electromagnetic catapult technology. The launch marks a major step in its naval expansion to rival the United States.

Market Turbulence Rises as Trade Relations Soured

TikTok users protesting outside the U.S. Supreme Court on January 10, 2025. (Source: Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)

– On January 10, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on the constitutionality of a federal law banning TikTok, with justices appearing skeptical of TikTok’s case.
– The Pentagon’s blacklist has added Tencent and CATL and caused stock drops, while China condemned the U.S. move as “unjust” and vowed to defend its companies’ rights.
– On January 3, the Justice Department urged the Supreme Court to reject President-elect Donald Trump’s request to delay a law that requires TikTok to be sold or banned by January 19, while the President-elect remains publicly opposed to banning the platform.
– The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in a high-stakes case regarding TikTok’s future in the U.S., while TikTok and its users argue the law violates First Amendment rights and would unjustly censor a popular social platform.
– American companies have largely muted their defense of trade ties with China, citing increased economic challenges, domestic competition, and restrictive policies in both countries.
– On December 27, China extended tariffs, sanctioning seven American firms over their increasing arms sales to Taiwan, and threatening to halt purchases of U.S. semiconductors.
– On December 23, the Biden administration launched a trade investigation into China’s production of legacy semiconductors, citing concerns over unfair subsidies and national security risks.

Tensions Mount Across the Taiwan Strait Following the Delivery of U.S. Arms

Two KH-6 Fast Attack Missile Boats sail in formation during a combat readiness exercise at the Zuoying Naval Base in Kaohsiung on January 9, 2025. (Source: I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images)

– Taiwan is investigating whether a Chinese-linked vessel damaged its undersea internet cable on January 3 and vows to pursue independent satellite resilience in potential crises.
-On January 7, Taiwan launched military drills to showcase its upgraded U.S.-supplied defense systems to bolster readiness against potential conflicts.
-On January 1, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, in his New Year’s address, vowed to bolster Taiwan’s defenses against advancing PRC’s capabilities, claiming the island’s role as a global “line of defense for democracy.”
– On December 22, China’s navy and coast guard conducted joint operations in December, which resembled a naval blockade in the Miyako Strait and near the Diaoyu/ Senkaku Islands, responding to the US arms sale of Abrams tanks to Taiwan.
– On December 16, Taiwan received its first batch of 38 advanced U.S.-made Abrams M1A2 tanks, demonstrating Taiwan’s efforts to modernize its defenses with U.S. arms.

China Prepares for Uncertainties Under Trump, but Biden’s Legacy Persists

U.S. President Joe Biden (L) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, November 16, 2024. (Source: LEAH MILLIS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

– On January 7, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his hardline stance on China. He also cited China’s presence in the Panama Canal and Greenland and refused to rule out military or economic actions to reclaim these strategic territories.
– On January 7, China has confirmed that President Xi Jinping has been communicating with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, with Chinese officials emphasizing the importance of these discussions.
– On January 7, a virtual discussion between Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and U.S. officials addressed Beijing’s concerns over recent 301 trade investigations, highlighting tensions as Trump prepares to take a firm stance on tariffs.
– Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen raised “serious concerns” with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng about state-sponsored cyberattacks, including an alleged breach of Treasury Department computers on December 30, highlighting strained U.S.-China ties ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
– On January 6, during a visit to South Korea, Secretary of State Antony Blinken navigated tensions as North Korea tested another ballistic missile and South Korea grappled with political turmoil, highlighting U.S. efforts to maintain stability and alliances in the region.

- What Are We Reading? -

- What's Happening Around Town? -

- What ICAS Is Up To -

BCCC Quarterly Release

The 2024 Q4 issue of the ICAS Blue Carbon & Climate Change Program Quarterly has been released!

Released the first week of every new quarter, the BCCC Quarterly is a magazine-style newsletter that records the most important trends and developments regarding blue carbon and climate change policies and regulations in China, the U.S., and other regions, as well as international regimes such as the United Nations. It also includes two special sections — the ‘Theme of the Quarter’ and the ‘Blue Carbon Country Profile’ —  that aim to bring a fresh element to each issue.

This quarter’s Theme is on “Mixed Results in Climate Cooperation” and the Country Profile is on “Saudi Arabia,” both researched and written by Research Assistant Zhangchen Wang.

MAP Commentary

Trump’s Greenland gambit spotlights geopolitical tussle over the Arctic
By Nong Hong
January 13, 2025

In August 2019, then US president Donald Trump made headlines with his surprising proposal to buy Greenland from Denmark. While the idea was met with scepticism and humour, it also reignited a historical debate and shed light on Greenland’s growing geopolitical significance.

As Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, his renewed interest in Greenland – and its implications for US foreign policy and Arctic governance – merits deeper examination. The idea is not new…

Image Credit: South China Morning Post, Stephen Case (Use Permission Granted)

This commentary was originally released by South China Morning Post on January 13, 2025.

BCCC Commentary

The Growing Wave of Climate Change Litigation: Trends and Impacts
By Nong Hong
January 10, 2025

Climate change litigation has emerged as a powerful tool in the global fight against the climate crisis. With its ability to hold states, corporations, and other stakeholders accountable, climate litigation is becoming a cornerstone of climate governance. Recent cases brought before international and regional legal institutions, such as the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), underscore the transformative potential of legal actions in addressing climate-related challenges. The trends and impacts of climate litigation deserve careful examination, including how it reshapes legal principles, drives accountability, and influences policy…

The court rise during a hearing at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as part of the proceedings aiming to set a legal framework on how countries should tackle climate change, in The Hague on December 4, 2024. (Photo by Robin van Lonkhuijsen / ANP / AFP)

BCCC Commentary

Why Multilateral Development Banks Hold the Future of Climate Finance
By Zhangchen Wang
January 6, 2025

Climate finance refers to financial resources that are used to address the challenges posed by climate change. Climate financing supports three main objectives: mitigation, adaptation, and resilience-building. Mitigation focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions through efforts like developing renewable energy projects and enhancing energy efficiency. Adaptation brings about initiatives such as constructing disaster-resilient infrastructure and implementing agricultural practices that help communities adjust to the effects of climate change. Resilience-building enhances the capacity of systems and societies to withstand and recover from climate-related shocks to ensure long-term sustainability in the face of climate risks.

Generally speaking, climate finance is delivered through several key channels: multilateral and bilateral climate funds and aid, multilateral development banks (MDBs), and private sector investments…

(Source: Getty Images, Royalty-Free)

ICAS In the News

On Monday, January 13, 2025, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on the potential TikTok ban on CGTN America’s Global Business.

  • “The primary constitutional challenge…is the free speech issue…We’ll have to balance [that with] national security…”

On Friday, January 10, 2025, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was quoted by South China Morning Post on the prospects for China-Canada relations in the Donald Trump and post-Justin Trudeau era.

  • “It will remain grounded and fail to achieve take-off velocity in 2025 or during the rest of this decade. Whoever turns out to be Trudeau’s successor, he or she will be no Anthony Albanese.”

On Wednesday, January 1, 2025, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by CGTN on the President Xi’s New Year Address.

  • “China has proved its capability to cope with these (economic) challenges. It’s a long process, and I think that he is going to deal with them and creating what he called new growth drivers.”

On Thursday, December 26, 2024, the ICAS 2024 Annual Conference and Keynote address by Minister Qiu Wenxing were discussed on Pekingology.

On Wednesday, December 25, 2024, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was interviewed by CGTN on the role of tariffs on U.S.-China relations.

  • “It’s in the people to people area and in the law enforcement area that the greatest amount of good has been done.”

On Wednesday, December 25, 2024, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta was quoted by China Daily on the expected impact of higher tariffs in U.S.-China trade ties.

  • “He will use a big tariff stick as a hammer to have leverage against China for whatever reasons.”
  • “There is a lot of opportunity for China and the EU actually to deepen their relationship, even though it is complicated.”

On Tuesday, December 17, 2024, the Keynote address by Minister Qiu Wenxing at the ICAS 2024 Annual Conference was summarized by the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United States of America.

Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta on CGTN America's Global Business on January 13, 2025.
Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta on CGTN America's China24 on December 25, 2024.