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November 23, 2022

ICAS Bulletin (online ISSN 2836-3418, print ISSN 2836-340X) is published every other week throughout the year at 1919 M St NW, Suite 310, Washington, DC 20036.
The online version of ICAS Bulletin can be found at chinaus-icas.org/bulletins/.

- What's Going On? -

Rebuilding Secure U.S.-China Lines of Communication

US President Joe Biden (L) and China's President Xi Jinping (R) meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on November 14, 2022. (Source: Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

– On November 14, on the sidelines of the G20 gathering in Bali, President Biden and President Xi met in person for the first time in five years. They exchanged goodwill gestures, called for calming tensions, resuming talks on climate change, economic stability, and debt relief. Following the meeting, President Biden released a statement stating that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to China in hopes to further reduce tensions.
– U.S. President Biden has vowed that there will be no “new Cold War” with China, following a conciliatory meeting with Chinese President Xi, coming as the pair seek to address global competition and lower tensions.
– Despite their goals of easing tensions, President Biden and President Xi have still offered competing stances on influence in Asia, how to address poverty, and the war in Ukraine; furthering bilateral global competition.
– The U.S. and Chinese heads of defense are looking to meet for the first time since Beijing suspended talks with Washington in Cambodia, indicative of seemingly cooling tensions between the U.S. and China.
– On November 16, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attempted to prevent economic conflict with Beijing as she met with China’s Central Bank Governor Yi Gang, resuming economic official meetings for the first time since Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Governor Yi also discussed global engagements with Secretary Yellen, agreeing to revive normal communications channels and to warn Russia against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
– President Xi Jinping has agreed to resume climate change talks with the United States, three months after suspending climate contracts in response to House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
– On November 15, Xie Zhenhua, climate envoy for China, met U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry in Egypt at COP27, the United Nations’ annual climate negotiations, where both governments stated that responsibility for climate is not a bilateral issue, and that both sides must work together. Xie encouraged the U.S. to continue bilateral cooperation on climate, emphasizing that the door is always open on the Chinese side for a joint effort to promote COP27 agenda items.

Meanwhile, U.S.-China Observations, Competition & Accusations Remain

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Christopher Wray speaking before the House Homeland Security Committee on November 15, 2022 in Washington, DC testifying about the current threat level against the United States. (Source: Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

– The U.S. Ambassador to Japan has issued a statement that global caution is needed with China and chips, emphasizing the damage that the “wolf warrior” title has done to China.
– During a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing, in response to a U.S. Senator’s question about the existence of Chinese Communist Party police stations existing in the U.S., FBI Director Christopher Wray said that he is “aware of the existence of these stations” and is “very concerned.” Wray expounded, noting that the existence of such stations “violate sovereignty and circumvent standard judicial and law enforcement cooperation processes.”
– U.S. Vice President Harris said she is to visit a Philippine island while in the area as a “message to the region that the United States is a member of the Indo-Pacific,” in-response to the growing Chinese regional tensions.
– Chinese intelligence officer Yanjun Xu was convicted by a federal jury on grounds of conspiracy to commit economic espionage, trade secret theft. U.S. officials say the case is an example of China’s relentless intelligence operations against American companies.
– China looks to send the outgoing defense minister Wei Fenghe to represent China in the first talks with the U.S. military since Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, looking to address U.S. sanctions against Wei’s successor.
– U.S. intelligence has begun an effort to stop spies and hackers from China from accessing American academic research on emerging technologies, developing new counterintelligence guidelines with academic institutions and federal agencies.
– U.S. President Biden affirms that the U.S.-ASEAN pact is a critical step towards tackling “the biggest issues of our time” as the U.S. looks to equalize its presence with China in ASEAN relations.
– Senior U.S. officials said China is uncomfortable with Russia’s rhetoric and invasion of Ukraine, as preparation for a bilateral discussion looking to aim down global tensions between Washington and Beijing.
– More than 1,000 shipments of solar energy components worth hundreds of millions of dollars have been stagnant at U.S. ports under a new law banning imports from China’s Xinjiang region over concerns of “slave labor.”

Auditing & Financial Headbutting Continues

View on Macao Cotai Strip with The Venetian and The Eiffel tower of the Parisian hotel in the distance, Macau. (Source: Getty Images, Royalty-Free)

– U.S. regulators have gained “good access” in their review of auditing work done on New York-listed Chinese firms during a seven-week inspection, moving forward to resolving a long-standing bilateral dispute in economic relations.
– Despite hopes of improved relations following the G20 meeting in Bali, the U.S. Congress still looks to suspend normal trade relations if Beijing does not comply with the World Trade Organization’s market access agreement.
– U.S. auditors continue to investigate U.S.-listed casino businesses in Macau, China, hoping to gain more transparency with the U.S.-listed casinos in Macau.
– Chinese state media has reaffirmed that the Chinese Yuan exchange rate long-term strengthening is here to stay despite the Yuan losing 10.7% against the U.S. Dollar and being set to have its largest annual decline since 1994.
– The U.S. State Department warned European allies any conflicts over Taiwan will trigger a major global economic shock, looking to set up contingency planning amid rising concern about Chinese military action in the Indo-Pacific
– U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen called for stabilizing bilateral relations for economic and global security. Attempting to explain U.S. trade controls to Chinese counterparts at the G20 meeting, she said “it’s not an attempt to completely paralyze China’s economy and stop its development.”

Insecurities Regarding Chips & Social Technologies Persist

(Source: Nordskov Media, Public Domain via Flickr)

– A state-backed Chinese semiconductor industry conference has called for an “open” and “inclusive” system, coming as chip companies are facing pressure to adhere to the United States bid to isolate China from cross-border supply chains.
– U.S. chipmaker Nvidia reported a 17% year-over-year quarterly revenue decline, citing Washington’s export curbs and Beijing’s zero-COVID policies.
– China has unveiled a new satellite-hunting radar to blunt military advantages provided by satellite intelligence, raising proliferation concerns in Washington and Western allies; citing worry that technology can be exported to U.S. adversaries.
– China’s largest chipmaker, SMIC, has missed their earnings estimate citing U.S. export controls and sanctions from Washington.
– Senator Marco Rubio and Representative Mike Gallagher raised concern in the U.S. Congress over widespread Chinese-owned technology app TikTok calling for a total-ban citing it as a, “major threat to U.S. national security” echoing concerns from FBI Director Christopher Wray who stated that operations of the Chinese-owned TikTok raise national security concerns, citing risk to influence users or control U.S. devices.
– U.S. chipmaker Nvidia offered a new advanced chip in China that meets recent export control rules from Washington, hoping to curb the export restrictions that could cost millions in revenue.

Eyes of Security Focused on East Asia

A view of East Asia at night from space. (Source: Getty Images, Royalty-Free)

– U.S. security officials did not disclose information about a U.S. warship moving through the Taiwan Strait on November 5, likely looking to avoid provocations with China ahead of the G20 Summit in Bali.
– U.S. General Mark Milley has pledged to support Taiwan, citing the Taiwan Relations Act and urged Beijing to learn from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He later said that China’s military is not capable of invading Taiwan for some time and President Xi Jinping would probably conclude that attacking too soon would be “a disaster.”
– U.S. President Biden raised objections towards China’s actions towards Taiwan looking to further U.S. security interests in the region, and has repeatedly indicated the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily.
– U.S. President Joe Biden looks to address North Korean missile provocations with China’s Xi Jinping in an effort to increase “peace and stability across the entire region.”

- What Are We Reading? -

- What's Happening Around Town? -

Past Events

November 18 hosted by Wilson Center

November 17 hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies

November 17 hosted by Foreign Policy

November 15 hosted by U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

Upcoming Events

November 23 hosted by Peterson Institute for International Economics

November 29 hosted by Wilson Center

December 5 hosted by Center for Strategic & International Studies



- What ICAS Is Up To -

ICAS Trade ‘n Technology Program Event

Of ‘Guardrails’ and ‘Floors’: Biden-Xi Meeting and Outlook for U.S.-China Relations and the Taiwan Question

November 30, 2022
9:00am – 10:20 am EDT

Twenty-two months after being sworn into office, and after having declared China to be the “most consequential geopolitical challenge,” President Biden held his first in-person leaders meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali, Indonesia. Earlier in mid-October and early-November, President Xi was confirmed to a norm-bending third term in office while President Biden emerged more-or-less politically unscathed from a bruising mid-term election.

At a time when U.S.-China relations continue to tread water, what are the key takeaways of the 20th Party Congress and the Midterm Elections for bilateral ties in 2023? In Bali, did Presidents Biden and Xi manage to set a ‘floor’ beneath their relationship and stabilize ties? Did they achieve the 3Rs — re–establish a baseline of communications; restart dialogue channels; reassure the other of their strategic intentions? How does the centralization of power in President Xi impact the politics of cross-strait relations as well as the timeline of a potential Taiwan Strait conflict? Will the slim but emboldened Republican majority in the House have an impact on the U.S.’ Taiwan policy in 2023-24? To listen to these and other answers to pressing U.S.-China questions, tune in to the event on November 30.

ICAS Academic Engagement

Executive Nong Hong speaks at the 7th International Conference on the Law of the Sea

November 15-17, 2022
Seoul, Republic of Korea & Virtual

From November 15-17, ICAS Executive Director Dr. Nong Hong participated in the Seventh International Conference on the Law of the Sea, with a theme of “Law of the Sea for the Next Generation: Effectiveness of UNCLOS Revisited.” While broadcasted online, a majority of the conference was held out of Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Dr. Hong presented in Panel 5: Voices of the Next Generation, speaking on the topic of “China’s Chance to Revisit the Role of UNCLOS in Ocean Governance and Dispute Settlement in the South China Sea.”

ICAS Commentary

Tech blockade just counterproductive

By Sourabh Gupta
November 16, 2022

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which concluded on Oct 22, officially confirmed China’s shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, which is a sensible and reassuring strategic policy choice.

Despite the China-US trade war, Washington’s technology crackdown on China, the COVID-19 pandemic and China’s somewhat tense relations with the West to some degrees, China has been focusing on high-quality development. This is to be welcomed. The longer China stays focused on high-quality development, and more egalitarian and sustainable growth, the faster it will become an advanced nation, even though the next 30 years are likely to be very difficult, both geopolitically and economically, for China.

China’s growth over the past decades has been beneficial for the country as well as Asia and the world. China is the world’s largest manufacturer, but still much of what it manufactures gets consumed in the West, including in the European Union and the United States. The next stage is for China to become a significant global consumer, which will provide ballast and stability for the international economic architecture as well as the developed and developing worlds.

ICAS In the News

A Photo of Senior Advisor Denis Simon in S&T Daily on November 17, 2022
Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta Speaking on CGTN's The Heat on November 16, 2022
Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta Speaking on APEC 2022 Summit on CGTN America on November 20, 2022

On Sunday, November 20, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the APEC 2022 Summit on CGTN America.

  • “The issues have been fairly common, and its been common because they are facing global challenges, all the parties are facing challenges at the regional level which are also global, and we see that in the energy crisis, food insecurity, costs by the war, were trying to climb out of COVID-19 but there are still restrictions and the horizon’s not clear. With inflation in the western countries really shooting through and interest rates going up we might be seeing not just a regional but a global recession next year, so all parties know this is a really difficult environment a multidimensional crisis frankly, and that we should try our best to keep avenues open, avenues for communication open, avenues for business and commercial exchange open, and I think that’s where the focus has been.”
  • “APEC remains just as critical and just as important, APEC was the author, the inventor of the term ‘open-regionalism’ in the late 1980s  which has been the foundational framework of issue wide liberalization it has anchored in the multilateral global roots based system. ARCEP has been very helpful because ARCEP is based on that very same theme of progressive, incremental but progressive, liberalization and so it has not destructed from APEC it has complimented APEC but APEC is the only trading venue in Asia where all the countries are represented.” 

 

On Thursday, November 17, 2022, Senior Advisor Denis Simon explained in S&T Daily how U,S,-China relations needs dialogue and understanding.

  • “China has benefited tremendously from its global engagement.”
  • “Chinese leaders showed a willingness to engage in fundamental changes in order to get China on a new path of more rapid modernization.”
  • “Understand the true and accurate picture on both sides of the ocean.”
  • “There has never been a trip to China where I have not learned something new,”

 

On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the G20 leaders meeting in Bali on CGTN’s The Heat.

  • “It was always on the cards that the U.S. and China could stabilize their relationship given the warm and personal relations that President Xi and President Biden have, but there are also loads of issues within the relationship which have just made it much more complicated and at times sent it into a spiral. Both parties showed that they are responsible enough to be able to manage their differences, and hopefully cooperate in finding solutions.”
  • “We’ve had this word, ‘like-minded nations’ creeping into our vocabulary too much, and you see a lot of that in the national security strategy and the communications taking place.”

 

On Wednesday, November 16, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta quoted by China Daily on the Biden-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G20.

  • “The problem, after all, is not a lack of positively expressed intentions…but the inability or unwillingness to translate these intentions into actual policy at the U.S. end, So we will have to wait and see how the ‘pudding’ tastes this time around.”

 

On Tuesday, November 15, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the Biden-Xi meeting before the G20 on CGTN America.

  • “Given the state of the U.S.-China relations nothing can be taken for granted, and it is highly welcomed that the meeting went well, and that there were deliverables coming out of the meeting including on climate change; and including restarting the bilateral dialogue process in certain instances.”
  • “…the meeting obviously did go well, but we have seen good intentions expressed previously in many of the virtual meetings placed over the last two years but that has not been translated into policy…”
  • “That having been said…this meeting hit the baselines which needed to be hit, which is reestablishing in-person high level communications, restarting dialogue mechanisms, and at least attempting to provide reassurance to each other. From that standpoint, I think that the meeting was a success. We’ll have to see if going forward they can really translate this into action and I get a sense from the U.S. side that they do want to draw a line and they do want to have a more cooperative standpoint going forward over the next year or two, at least the administration that is.”

 

On Thursday, November 10, 2022, Research Associate Yilun Zhang was interviewed by PressTV on the current state of U.S.-China bilateral relations.

  • “The rapidly evolving dynamics around the world also presents a pressing need for the two countries to restore and reinforce their communication channel.”
  • “Any attempt [by the Biden administration] to soften tensions with China will be criticized [by Washington policymakers] as being soft to China…“ 

 

On Thursday, November 10, 2022, ​​Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta‘s event video remarks were highlighted by China Daily.

  • “China has interlocked itself within regional value chains. And it’s very tightly bound from a trade and investment perspective with markets, both in Asia and the Western world,”
  • “I think China can become a first-class advanced nation. That will take time still, but I think China has succeeded, and there’s no reason to believe that China will not succeed, even though the next 30 years will be very difficult, both geopolitically, even pursuing high-quality development,”
  • “It’s become very, very clear over the past two to three years that the U.S. strategy, economic strategy with regard to China, is no longer to create a reciprocal, beneficial exchange, as much as to constrain China’s rise. In fact, at some levels to contain China’s development and rise.”

 

On Sunday, November 20, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the APEC 2022 Summit on CGTN America.

  • “The issues have been fairly common, and its been common because they are facing global challenges, all the parties are facing challenges at the regional level which are also global, and we see that in the energy crisis, food insecurity, costs by the war, were trying to climb out of COVID-19 but there are still restrictions and the horizon’s not clear. With inflation in the western countries really shooting through and interest rates going up we might be seeing not just a regional but a global recession next year, so all parties know this is a really difficult environment a multidimensional crisis frankly, and that we should try our best to keep avenues open, avenues for communication open, avenues for business and commercial exchange open, and I think that’s where the focus has been.”
  • “APEC remains just as critical and just as important, APEC was the author, the inventor of the term ‘open-regionalism’ in the late 1980s  which has been the foundational framework of issue wide liberalization it has anchored in the multilateral global roots based system. ARCEP has been very helpful because ARCEP is based on that very same theme of progressive, incremental but progressive, liberalization and so it has not destructed from APEC it has complimented APEC but APEC is the only trading venue in Asia where all the countries are represented.” 

 

On Thursday, November 17, 2022, Senior Advisor Denis Simon explained in S&T Daily how U,S,-China relations needs dialogue and understanding.

  • “China has benefited tremendously from its global engagement.”
  • “Chinese leaders showed a willingness to engage in fundamental changes in order to get China on a new path of more rapid modernization.”
  • “Understand the true and accurate picture on both sides of the ocean.”
  • “There has never been a trip to China where I have not learned something new,”

 

On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the G20 leaders meeting in Bali on CGTN’s The Heat.

  • “It was always on the cards that the U.S. and China could stabilize their relationship given the warm and personal relations that President Xi and President Biden have, but there are also loads of issues within the relationship which have just made it much more complicated and at times sent it into a spiral. Both parties showed that they are responsible enough to be able to manage their differences, and hopefully cooperate in finding solutions.”
  • “We’ve had this word, ‘like-minded nations’ creeping into our vocabulary too much, and you see a lot of that in the national security strategy and the communications taking place.”

 

On Wednesday, November 16, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta quoted by China Daily on the Biden-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G20.

  • “The problem, after all, is not a lack of positively expressed intentions…but the inability or unwillingness to translate these intentions into actual policy at the U.S. end, So we will have to wait and see how the ‘pudding’ tastes this time around.”

 

On Tuesday, November 15, 2022, Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta discussed the Biden-Xi meeting before the G20 on CGTN America.

  • “Given the state of the U.S.-China relations nothing can be taken for granted, and it is highly welcomed that the meeting went well, and that there were deliverables coming out of the meeting including on climate change; and including restarting the bilateral dialogue process in certain instances.”
  • “…the meeting obviously did go well, but we have seen good intentions expressed previously in many of the virtual meetings placed over the last two years but that has not been translated into policy…”
  • “That having been said…this meeting hit the baselines which needed to be hit, which is reestablishing in-person high level communications, restarting dialogue mechanisms, and at least attempting to provide reassurance to each other. From that standpoint, I think that the meeting was a success. We’ll have to see if going forward they can really translate this into action and I get a sense from the U.S. side that they do want to draw a line and they do want to have a more cooperative standpoint going forward over the next year or two, at least the administration that is.”

 

On Thursday, November 10, 2022, Research Associate Yilun Zhang was interviewed by PressTV on the current state of U.S.-China bilateral relations.

  • “The rapidly evolving dynamics around the world also presents a pressing need for the two countries to restore and reinforce their communication channel.”
  • “Any attempt [by the Biden administration] to soften tensions with China will be criticized [by Washington policymakers] as being soft to China…“ 

 

On Thursday, November 10, 2022, ​​Senior Fellow Sourabh Gupta‘s event video remarks were highlighted by China Daily.

  • “China has interlocked itself within regional value chains. And it’s very tightly bound from a trade and investment perspective with markets, both in Asia and the Western world,”
  • “I think China can become a first-class advanced nation. That will take time still, but I think China has succeeded, and there’s no reason to believe that China will not succeed, even though the next 30 years will be very difficult, both geopolitically, even pursuing high-quality development,”
  • “It’s become very, very clear over the past two to three years that the U.S. strategy, economic strategy with regard to China, is no longer to create a reciprocal, beneficial exchange, as much as to constrain China’s rise. In fact, at some levels to contain China’s development and rise.”

ICAS Special Announcement

The State of Chinese Americans Survey - Your Input Is Needed!

The ICAS Team is excited to share with our Bulletin readers a project that ICAS has been invited to partner on. Columbia University and Committee of 100 have developed a nationwide survey focused on Chinese Americans, to gather information that will shed light on the status and needs of today’s Chinese American population.

Anyone who identifies as Chinese (regardless of birthplace or citizenship), is 18 years or older, and currently lives in the U.S. can participate. Survey links are also welcome to be shared with anyone who may be interested in taking it.

This is the first survey of its kind that is designed to focus specifically on Chinese Americans, and the survey findings will be used to inform policymakers and the public on policies and programs that can better serve the needs of Chinese American communities across the country.

Your participation, which is completely voluntary, is the most important part of this project, and you are encouraged to take this survey HERE today and make your voice heard!

Note: The survey is available in English, traditional Chinese, and simplified Chinese.

The ICAS Team