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By The ICAS Team
By Lee Jeong-ho
South China Morning Post, March 1
“North Korea has staged a surprise late-night press conference to deny US President Donald Trump’s claims about why his two-day summit in Hanoi with Kim Jong-un ended on Thursday in dramatic fashion without agreement.”
Trump’s Talks With Kim Jong-un Collapse Over North Korean Sanctions
By Edward Wong
The New York Times, February 28
“The United States and North Korea offered conflicting accounts and traded blame on Thursday after a second summit meeting between President Trump and the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, ended abruptly without any agreement on nuclear disarmament or easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.”
The US government just made clear it’s going after more types of Chinese tech than we thought
By Kate Fazzini
CNBC, February 25
“The brewing technology battle between the U.S. and China isn’t just about 5G telecom equipment Chinese companies want to bring to the U.S. It’s already starting to bleed into other tech categories, as shown in a new letter posted Monday from 11 senators and top officials from the departments of Energy and Homeland Security that called for a ban of Huawei-made solar technology.”
“The letter sets the U.S. up to not only block smartphones and telecom equipment from Chinese companies such as Huawei, but nearly all tech it sees as a potential security threat.”
“The authors of the letter, including DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and Energy Secretary Rick Perry, say Huawei’s “smart” solar grid products, which include control systems called “inverters” that are capable of connecting to the wider electrical grid, present a danger to “critical U.S. electrical systems and infrastructure.””
U.S. Navy ships pass through strategic Taiwan Strait, riling China
By Idrees Ali
Reuters, February 25
“The United States sent two Navy ships through the Taiwan Strait on Monday as the U.S. military increased the frequency of movement through the strategic waterway despite opposition from China.”
Trump to Delay Tariff Increases on Chinese Imports
By Bob Davis and Lingling Wei
The Washington Street Journal, February 24
“President Trump said Sunday he would delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect at the end of this week, citing “substantial progress” on issues including intellectual property and technology transfer after a weekend of talks.”
First Tesla Model 3s Zoom Into China, Outracing Tariff Threat
By Trefor Moss
The Wall Street Journal, February 22
“China’s first Tesla Model 3 owners took express delivery of their new cars Friday, after the electric-car maker rushed a boatload of vehicles across the Pacific to beat a looming tariff deadline.”
At Trump-Kim Summit, Host Vietnam Blazes Trail for North Korea
By Niharika Mandhana
The Wall Street Journal, February 22
“When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets President Trump in Hanoi next week, the venue itself will carry a message for the dictator: If you cooperate with the U.S., you could command an economic transformation like Vietnam’s.”
Chinese-British relations ‘complicated’ by South China Sea military plans
By Laura Zhou
South China Morning Post, February 21
“UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond said China-UK relations had been damaged by Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson’s threat to deploy the Queen Elizabeth warship, along with two squadrons of F-35B Lightning II joint strike fighters, to the disputed waters.”
Kim Jong-un’s ‘Butler’ Visits Vietnam to Prepare for Trump Meeting
By Choe Sang-Hun
The New York Times, February 18
“A senior North Korean official known as Kim Jong-un’s “butler” has begun scouting hotels, factory sites and resorts in Vietnam ahead of the North Korean leader’s highly anticipated summit meeting with President Trump in Hanoi next week. The official, Kim Chang-son, who serves as Mr. Kim’s de facto chief of staff, arrived in Hanoi on Saturday to discuss logistics with his White House counterpart, Daniel Walsh.”
China and U.S. to Continue Trade Talks Next Week
By Keith Bradsher and Alan Rappeport
The New York Times, February 15
“United States officials said on Friday that they had made “progress” during a week of trade talks with their Chinese counterparts, but big sticking points remain and the two sides plan to continue negotiations next week in Washington to try to end the trade war.”
China Seeks to Woo U.S. With Promise of Big Chip Purchases
Lingling Wei
The Wall Street Journal, February 14
“During the negotiations this week that were in their fourth day Thursday, U.S. and Chinese officials have remained deadlocked on a number of issues underlying the current trade dispute, according to people with knowledge of the matter. These include Washington’s complaints that China pressures American firms to share technology and uses industrial policies to favor domestic companies at the expense of U.S. competitors.”
US demands level playing field in China, but can Beijing rein in state subsidies to end trade war?
By Orange Wang
South China Morning Post, February 28
“US President Donald Trump has delayed the application of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, citing “substantial progress” in addressing the US demands for structural reform in the Chinese economy. This is the fourth article in a five-part series looking into these demands, which are the conditions for ending the trade war.”
What China’s Middle Class Says About Trump, Trade and Tomorrow
By Karen Leigh, Xiaoqing Pi and April Ma
Bloomberg, February 27
“As China’s slowdown hits home, the millions of middle class families created during the nation’s boom gathered for Lunar New Year reunions, to celebrate their good fortune and ponder the economic storm clouds gathering over the country.”
Trump is headed for a bad trade deal that China won’t honor
By Josh Rogin
Washington Post, February 27
“Trump’s debate with chief trade negotiator Lighthizer in the Oval Office in front of a Chinese delegation over the naming of a trade deal with China, a ‘memorandum of understanding’ is not just an embarrassment but also a signal over the effectiveness of such an agreement.”
We have reached the end game in the trade war
By Stuart Eizenstat, Anne Pence and Christopher Adams
The Hill, February 27
“The credibility of both leaders is also on the line. While the stakes are very high, trust is low. For China to take the risk of liberalizing during such a major economic transition, the U.S. should give China some certainty on tariff relief if China is implementing the agreement in good faith.”
“It remains to be seen whether President Trump can reach a deal with President Xi that is “better than any deal that anybody ever dreamed possible.” Failure to reach a deal seems unlikely, given what is at stake for both leaders.”
“An effective agreement with China to ensure respect for fair trade and investment and international rules and agreements might better and sooner have been reached with the cooperation of like-minded allies, like the EU, Japan and Canada. This was foreclosed by the administration’s unilateral tariffs on national security grounds against their products.”
“But it is good news that a U.S.-China agreement may soon be reached; a credible agreement that both see as a “win” would reduce both economic and geopolitical risk and uncertainty and give the global economy some breathing room.”
China’s Rise in the Middle East: Beyond Economics
By Nicholas Lyall
The Diplomat, February 25
“US President Donald Trump has delayed the application of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, citing “substantial progress” in addressing the US demands for structural reform in the Chinese economy. This is the fourth article in a five-part series looking into these demands, which are the conditions for ending the trade war.”
China seeks new islands to conquer
By James Stavridis
Japan Times, February 22
“A U.S. Defense Department report warns that China’s military buildup is reaching the point where it can attempt to “impose its will on the region and beyond.” Visiting recently with senior officials from two U.S. allies in the region, Japan and Singapore, gave me a visceral feeling of how things look on the ground (and at sea). “We are deeply concerned about the U.S. long-term commitment in the region, starting with troops in South Korea — especially in the face of China and their determined military expansion,” a senior Japanese official told me.”
“The constant refrain was simple: The West is becoming a less reliable partner. These allies are dismayed by a U.S. administration that has repeatedly criticized its closest partners and accused them of freeloading on defense. They are also worried about weakness and distraction of a Europe facing Brexit. This is compounded as they watch China increase pressure on Taiwan to accept a “one nation, two systems” deal a la Hong Kong and militarize the South China Sea by constructing artificial islands.”
Trump, Xi Face Pressure at Home Over Trade
By Lingling Wei and Bob Davis
The Wall Street Journal, February 20
“Despite their sharp differences in style, background and policies, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump share a common problem: growing concerns on the home front that they are going to cave in to the other side.”
By Peter Gries and Tao Wang
Foreign Affairs, February 15
“Wishful Thinking in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington Could Spell War in 2019.”
China and Global 5G: Getting the Questions Right
Event hosted by the Wilson Center, March 4, 2019
The Present and the Future: Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region
Event hosted by the Washington International Trade Association, March 5, 2019
Soft Power, Influence, and Strategic Competition in Southeast Asia
Event hosted by the Asia Society, March 6, 2019
SAIS China Forum: China’s Crisis of Success
Event hosted by SAIS, March 6, 2019
How should US and Japan respond to a possible China-Taiwan conflict?
Event hosted by U.S.-Japan Research Institute, March 8, 2019
China’s 21st Century Rise in Historical Perspective
Event hosted by CSIS, March 12, 2019
Edgerton Series: A Conversation with Ambassador John Negroponte
Event hosted by the Pacific Council, February 13, 2019
The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?
Event hosted by Johns Hopkins SAIS, February 20, 2019
By The ICAS Team
On February 26th, ICAS unveiled its new blog available on our website at www.chinaus-icas.org/blog. Through this platform, we will keep our supporters up to date on our latest analyses of everything US-China relations and also delve into topics not normally included in our bulletins, issue primers, or reports. Blog posts will be written by ICAS interns, associates, and fellows and utilize multimedia such as photos, videos, audio recordings, Tweets, and more. Here are some samples of recent blog posts:
Trump touts economic success, but is that what North Korea wants? – March 1, 2019
Taking place at a highly symbolic location, Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, the second Trump-Kim Summit intended to use Vietnam’s free-market victory as a model for North Korea, which might develop similarly through reform and openness. However, seen from the perspective of the Kim regime, Vietnam’s success in forcing an American withdrawal and reunifying a divided nation under a communist government offers more inspiration to North Korea than its later economic success….
China’s Stake in the Trump-Kim Summit – February 27, 2019
As North Korea’s single largest trading partner and main ally in the region, China has a large stake in the Trump-Kim summit taking place in Hanoi.
North Korea’s pursuance of nuclear weapons has provoked fear in the region causing Japan and South Korea to develop ballistic missile defenses in response, much to China’s displeasure. China is also concerned with the security of North Korea’s nuclear weapons due to its greatest fear: collapse of the Kim regime. If the Kim regime collapses, North Korea’s nuclear weapons would be at risk of leakage or sale to non-state actors.
Stability on the Korean peninsula is a key objective for China, as it shares a 1,420 kilometer border with North Korea spanning Liaoning and Jilin provinces along the Yalu River. The majority of North Korean defectors escape the country through this border with China, then continue onward to countries in Southeast Asia where they cannot be repatriated to the North before seeking asylum with South Korea. If there was a collapse in the Kim regime, countless millions would likely make a rush to the DPRK-China border to escape the country…
Trump-Kim Vietnam Summit: An End to the Korean War? – February 26, 2019
President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un both arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam to meet for the second time since their historic summit in Singapore last year.
Last year’s summit, being the first-ever meeting between leaders of the United States and North Korea, represented a historic breakthrough in long-frozen relations between the two countries. After one-on-one talks, expanded discussions with their aides and a “working lunch,” the two world leaders signed a statement promising security guarantees for North Korea, better relationship between the two nations, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and recovery of soldiers’ remains. However, their first summit ended with vague commitments and no firm deals regarding the North Korea’s nuclear disarmament and triggered a months-long stalemate in negotiations….
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