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By Mark J. Valencia
Why was the PLA at the China-US talks in Alaska?
By Minnie Chan
South China Morning Post, March 23 [Paywall]
Members of the Chinese military were on hand at the high-level talks in Alaska last week, playing a supporting advisory role as Beijing and Washington reached consensus on various security issues. A Chinese military source said this presence indicated that Beijing was eager to develop the talks into a strategic dialogue and prevent accidental military conflicts.
US Concludes ‘Tough’ Talks With China in Alaska
VOA News, March 20
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States shared “significant concerns” with China during the first face-to-face meeting between the two countries under the Biden administration, concluding two days of contentious talks. Blinken said the U.S. diplomats “knew going in that there are a number of areas where we are fundamentally at odds, including China’s actions in Xinjiang, with regard to Hong Kong, Tibet, increasingly Taiwan, as well as actions that it’s taking in cyberspace.”
He told reporters at the conclusion of the talks Friday in Anchorage, Alaska, “We wanted to share with them the significant concerns that we have about a number of the actions that China has taken and the behavior it’s exhibiting, concerns shared by our allies and partners.”
Alaska summit: for China and the US, a narrow road through deep divisions
By Catherine Wong and Mark Magnier
South China Morning Post, March 20 [Paywall]
The first high-level talks between China and the United States since US President Joe Biden took office began with acrimony and ended with a consensus that observers say opens up a narrow path to cooperation between the two powers. In a statement released after the meeting, Beijing said the two countries would set up a joint working group on climate change. According to Beijing, the two countries also discussed arrangements for diplomats and consular staff from both countries to have coronavirus vaccines. Travel and visa policies were also on the table. Top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi called the talks “direct, frank and constructive”.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the talks “a very candid conversation on an expansive agenda” that included economics, trade, and technology, but noted China’s “defensive response” on issues where the two countries were “fundamentally at odds”, including Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Tibet, Taiwan and cyberspace.
[Secretary Antony J. Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Director Yang And State Councilor Wang At the Top of Their Meeting, Official Remarks in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S. Department of State, March 18]
The US and China: Meeting each other halfway
By Zhiqun Zhu
The Hill, March 27
“The frozen relationship between the United States and China began to thaw after President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping spoke on the phone on the eve of the Chinese New Year. Though the two leaders did not address specific issues in the relationship, the timing of the call was interpreted as a friendly gesture to the Chinese, which helped restore confidence between the governments. In diplomacy, such niceties matter.”
“That this meeting took place in Alaska, roughly equal distance from Beijing and Washington, provides the answer to the question of how the two powers can move forward: meeting each other halfway. Instead of smearing each other to deflect their own problems, the United States and China should, while acknowledging their imperfections at home, learn to appreciate the fact that both have played positive roles, in different ways. They’ve often worked together in concert, to promote common interests of the international community, and they should continue to do so.”
Why the U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry Has Intensified
By Paul Heer
The National Interest, March 22
“The outcome of the U.S.-China meeting in Anchorage on March 18–19, which amounted to little more than a mutual airing of grievances and staking out of battle lines, could easily have been predicted based on the way both sides framed the meeting in advance. On the day before, China’s official news service published a commentary saying the ‘arrival of the long-awaited official dialogue’ was an opportunity for Beijing and Washington to ‘build strategic trust, avoid strategic miscalculation, and manage differences.’”
The U.S. and China Finally Get Real With Each Other
By Thomas Wright
The Atlantic, March 21
“Thursday night’s very public dustup between United States and Chinese officials in Anchorage, Alaska, during the Biden administration’s first official meeting with China, may have seemed like a debacle, but the exchange was actually a necessary step to a more stable relationship between the two countries.”
“The truth is that the United States does pose a threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s interests (although not necessarily those of the Chinese people), while the CCP surely poses a threat to liberal democracy and U.S. interests. Ultimately, Washington and Beijing will have to acknowledge this to each other. That will be difficult for the Biden administration, which is accustomed to assuming that American interests are not a threat to any other government, but broadly benefit all major world powers. It will be even harder for Beijing, which goes to great lengths to conceal its revisionism behind a shield of insincere platitudes.”
“Such an acknowledgment will allow a truly frank strategic conversation to occur about how these two countries’ systems will relate to each other as they compete. These systems are incompatible in many respects, but they are also intertwined in a myriad of ways. The goals of U.S.-China diplomacy should initially be modest, to avoid unintentional provocations and to facilitate transactional cooperation on shared interests. Eventually, if China’s behavior and the geopolitical conditions are favorable, the two sides could explore broader cooperation and even the possibility of a détente—a general thawing of tensions—but that is a long way off.”
China’s Warning to Biden
By The Editorial Board
The Wall Street Journal, March 21 [Paywall]
“That was some tongue lashing a senior Chinese official delivered last week in Anchorage to top Biden Administration officials in their first meeting. This is the new reality in U.S.-China relations, as adversaries look to see if they can exploit President Biden as they did Barack Obama.”
US-China relations: Alaska meeting offers hope of the beginning of a thaw
By David Dodwell
South China Morning Post, March 12 [Paywall]
“I confess the meeting is a surprise, albeit an encouraging one. I have no idea who suggested it, but it was a smart offer. Concrete results cannot be expected, but that does not matter.”
U.S., 13 Countries Concerned WHO COVID-19 Origin Study was Delayed, Lacked Access -Statement
Reuters, March 30
The United States and 13 other countries expressed concerns on Tuesday that the World Health Organization (WHO) report on the origins of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was delayed and lacked access to complete data, according to a joint statement released on the website of the U.S. State Department. The statement followed WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’s assertion that data was withheld from its investigators who traveled to China to research the origins of the pandemic. [Joint Statement]
Beijing courts Southeast Asian nations in bid to counter South China Sea backlash
By Maria Siow and William Zheng
South China Morning Post, March 30 [Paywall]
Following President Xi Jinping’s four-day trip to Fujian, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be meeting with his counterparts later this week in China: Singapore’s Vivian Balakrishnan, Indonesia’s Retro Marsudi, the Philippines’ Teddy Locsin, and Malaysia’s Hishammuddin Hussein. The visits come as Washington has been joined by Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines in speaking out again over China’s actions in the South China Sea.
New Trade Representative Says U.S. Isn’t Ready to Lift China Tariffs
By Bob Davis and Yuka Hayashi
The Wall Street Journal, March 28 [Paywall]
The U.S. isn’t ready to lift tariffs on Chinese imports in the near future, but might be open to trade negotiations with Beijing, according to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. Ms. Tai said she recognized that the tariffs can exact a toll on U.S. businesses and consumers, though proponents have said they also help shield companies from subsidized foreign competition.
United States Condemns China’s Sanctions in Dispute over Uighurs
Reuters, March 27
The United States on Saturday condemned China’s sanctions against two American religious-rights officials and a Canadian lawmaker in a dispute over Beijing’s treatment of Uighur Muslims and other minorities. Beijing’s sanctions followed those imposed by the United States, European Union, Britain and Canada earlier this week for what they say are violations of the rights of Uighur Muslims and other Turkic minorities in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang. [Condemnation by the U.S. State Department] [Announcement of Sanctions by the U.S. Treasury Department]
Chinese Ship Deployment Roils South China Sea
By Julie McCarthy
NPR, March 26
This week, Chinese vessels were moored in the waters around Whitsun Reef–a reef claimed by both China and the Philippines–in the South China Sea, provoking international alarm and pushing Manila to formally protest in what it called a violation of “its sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction.” The U.S. and its allies supported the Philippines statement and the call for Beijing to immediately withdraw what appears to be a “flotilla of fishing vessels.”
Biden pledges to prevent China from becoming the world’s ‘leading’ country
By Robert Delaney
South China Morning Post, March 26 [Paywall]
In his first press conference as U.S. president, Joe Biden said “I see stiff competition with China,” explaining that “China has an overall goal, and I don’t criticize them for the goal…to become the leading country in the world, the wealthiest country in the world and the most powerful country…That’s not going to happen on my watch….” The president continued, pointing out specific fields of competition like semiconductors that could prove vital to determining the overall outcome of the competition.
U.S., EU to cooperate on China dialogue, Russia challenge: statement
By Reuters Staff
Reuters, March 24
In a joint statement after meeting in Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the EU high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, “acknowledged a shared understanding that relations with China are multifaceted, comprising elements of cooperation, competition, and systemic rivalry.” Other issues were also addressed and discussed.
[Joint Statement] [Speech by Secretary of State Antony Blinken]
Russia’s top diplomat starts China visit with call to reduce U.S. dollar use
By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber and Andrew Osborn
Reuters, March 22
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that Moscow and Beijing should “reduce sanctions risks by bolstering our technological independence, by switching to payments in our national currencies and global currencies that serve as an alternative to the dollar.” The statement was made in an interview with Chinese media before Lavrov’s two-day visit to China to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart.
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo Statement on Actions Taken Under ICTS Supply Chain Executive Order
By Gina M. Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce
U.S. Department of Commerce, March 17
Today, the Department of Commerce served subpoenas on multiple Chinese companies that provide information and communications technology and services (ICTS) in the United States. … The Administration is firmly committed to taking a whole-of-government approach to ensure that untrusted companies cannot misappropriate and misuse data and ensuring that U.S. technology does not support China’s or other actors’ malign activities.
US Designates Huawei, Four Other Chinese Tech Firms National Security Threats
DW, March 13
The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on Friday designated five Chinese tech firms as posing an “unacceptable risk” to national security. The companies include Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, along with ZTE, Hytera Communications, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology and Dahua Technology. [FCC Press Release]
China semiconductor trade association establishes work group with U.S. counterpart
By Reuters Staff
Reuters, March 11
The Chinese Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA) announced on its website that it will establish a working group with Washington-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The working group will meet twice a year, though the date of the first meeting and 20 chip companies–10 American and 10 Chinese–involved are not yet specified.
Russia and China unveil plans for joint lunar space station as Moscow drifts away from NASA
By Matthew Bodner
NBCNews, March 11
Russian space agency Roscosmos signed a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese National Space Administration (CNSA) to jointly build what they call the International Scientific Lunar Station. Roscomos has been previously invited by NASA, its U.S. counterpart, to join the U.S.-led lunar project known as Artemis. In a statement, Roscosmos explained that the project with the CNSA will “promote cooperation…with open access to all interested nations and international partners.”
US to build anti-China missile network along first island chain
By Ryo Nakamura
Nikkei Asia, March 5 [Paywall]
In an attempt at deterrence against Chinese forces in the East and South China Seas, the U.S. will reportedly establish a “network of precision-strike missiles” along the first island chain in the region. This activity is part of the $27.4 billion in spending that is currently being considered for efforts in the Indo-Pacific theater over the next six years.
U.S. calls German warship’s plan to sail South China Sea support for rules-based order
By Reuters Staff
Reuters, March 3
The United States on Wednesday hailed plans by NATO ally Germany to sail a warship across the contested South China Sea, calling it welcome support for a “rules-based international order” in the region, something Washington says is threatened by China. A spokesman for the foreign ministry in China said countries enjoyed freedom of navigation and overflight in the waterway under international law, but added: “they cannot take it as an excuse to undermine the sovereignty and security of littoral countries.”
There Will Not Be a New Cold War
By Thomas J. Christensen
Foreign Affairs, March 24
“For the past few decades, Chinese scholars, pundits, and diplomats have often falsely accused the United States of adopting a “cold war mentality” toward China. They usually level these accusations when Washington enhances the U.S. military’s position in Asia or bolsters the military capabilities of its allies and partners in East Asia.”
“It is true that in the post–Cold War era, the United States and its allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific have been engaged in a strategic competition in the military sphere with China, which has been modernizing its forces and increasing their power projection capabilities.”
U.S.-Chinese Rivalry Is a Battle Over Values: Great-Power Competition Can’t Be Won on Interests Alone
By Hal Brands and Zack Cooper
Foreign Affairs, March 16
“On the campaign trail, U.S. President Joe Biden pledged to put values at the heart of his administration’s China policy. Since entering office, he has called on the world’s democracies to gird for a new era of strategic competition with China in which they “work together to secure the peace and defend our shared values and advance our prosperity across the Pacific.” Biden’s interim National Security Strategic Guidance labels democracy “our most fundamental advantage” and insists “our model isn’t a relic of history…”
Opinion: Our four nations are committed to a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region
By Joe Biden, Narendra Modi, Scott Morrison and Yoshihide Suga
The Washington Post, March 13
“In December 2004, the continental shelf off the coast of Indonesia shifted two meters, creating one of the largest tidal waves in modern history and a nearly unprecedented humanitarian crisis around the Indian Ocean. With millions displaced and hundreds of thousands killed, the Indo-Pacific region sounded a clarion call for help. Together, our four countries answered it.”
[Quad Leaders’ Joint Statement: “The Spirit of the Quad”]
China and Russia’s proposed lunar research station is an ominous sign for the West
By Henry Olsen
The Washington Post, March 12
“The recent announcement that China and Russia intend to cooperate to build a lunar research station is ominous. While the immediate effects are minimal, it is yet another sign that Moscow and Beijing are drawing closer into a de facto alliance against the West.”
Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget
By Bonnie Glaser, Matthew Funaiole, Bonnie Chan and Brian Hart
Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 5
“The annual meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) began on Friday, March 5, in Beijing. Like previous years, the first day of the new NPC session was highlighted by the widely anticipated announcement of China’s 2021 defense budget, which was set at 1.36 trillion yuan, a 6.8 percent increase from the 1.27 trillion yuan budget set last year. The new budget amounts to $209.16 billion based on the current exchange rate. Monitoring China’s defense budget provides critical insights into the ongoing modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).”
A Framework for U.S.-China Engagement
By Stephanie Segal
Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 4
“Charting a course for U.S.-China relations, currently described as at their “lowest point” since normalization in 1979, is arguably the most pressing foreign policy challenge facing the Biden administration. The White House readout of a call last month between U.S. president Joe Biden and Chinese president Xi Jinping referenced “Beijing’s coercive and unfair economic practices, crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and increasingly assertive actions in the region, including toward Taiwan,” making clear that a change in administration has not relieved the most acute strains on the relationship. The readout also referenced, however, the “shared challenges of global health security, climate change, and preventing weapons proliferation,” signaling a departure from the all-or-nothing approach that characterized the waning days of the Trump administration. It is clear that progress on many of the biggest challenges facing the United States and the world will require constructive U.S.-China engagement, even as Washington confronts Beijing in a number of other areas.”
“Our framework explicitly recognizes the importance of actions by third countries in affecting outcomes. Perhaps most important, a framework can bring greater clarity and predictability to the U.S. approach to China, something that will be needed if U.S. companies, research institutions, and, critically, our allies and partners are to work in common cause with the U.S. government. Surely that is an important objective across all policy areas, and none more so than in the high-stakes arena of U.S.-China relations.”
Securing America’s Networks Against Chinese Security Threats
Event by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 30
Discussion on a Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity
Event by the Wilson Center, March 29
How China Loses: The Pushback Against Chinese Global Ambitions
Event by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, March 24
The U.S.–Japan Economic Relationship and Views of Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies
Event by Rand Corporation, March 24
Hearing: United States Standing in International Organizations
Hearing by the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, March 23
Building Back Diplomacy: The Biden Administration Strides into Asia
Event by the Wilson Center, March 22
China’s New Legislative Agenda: Unpacking China’s “Two Meetings”
Event by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 22
Hearing: America’s Way Forward in the Indo-Pacific
Hearing by the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, March 19
Hearing: U.S. Investment in China’s Capital Markets and Military-Industrial Complex
Hearing by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, March 19
Transatlantic Relations and the Indo-Pacific: Implications for Japan and Korea
Event by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 18
Climate Security Risks in the Arctic
Event by Wilson Center, March 12
When the Chips are Down: Navigating Strengths and Strategic Vulnerabilities in the Semiconductor Industry
Event by Wilson Center, March 10
Virtual Event: Lessons from the West Capella Incident: Successful Naval Presence in the South China Sea
Event by the Heritage Foundation, March 10
US and Singaporean Perspectives on Navigating Data Governance in the Asia Pacific
Event by Pacific Forum, March 10
The Digital War: How China’s Tech Power Shapes the Future of AI, Blockchain, and Cyberspace
Event by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, March 9
How Biden’s Climate Change Policy Impacts its Bilateral Relationships with China and Canada
Event by the Institute for China-America Studies and the China Institute and University of Alberta, March 4
Live Podcast: The economic costs of decoupling from China
Event by SupChina, April 1
Environmental protection in Antarctica: What should be the priorities for the new Biden Administration?
Event by the Wilson Center, April 5
Towards a Better China Strategy
Event by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 6
Book Event: The Great Exodus from China: Trauma, Memory, and Identity in Modern Taiwan
Event by the Wilson Center, April 16
NBR Summer Seminar 2021:Managing the China Challenge
Event by the National Bureau of Asian Research, June 21-August 13
By Mark J. Valencia
The much-anticipated meeting between top US and China foreign policy officials has come and gone with only the great gaps between the two to show for it. Despite growing US angst and opposition, China is proceeding apace toward its goal of regional and eventual world dominance.
As Graham Allison has prophesied “unless it crashes or cracks up,” China will be—as Lee Kuan Yew once put it– “the biggest player in the history of the world.” ‘Crashing’ or ‘cracking up’ seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. But there is another obstacle that could threaten its ambitions or at least the timing of reaching its goals. That potential obstacle is multinational opposition of the US-led West –and important countries in Asia. To achieve what it views as its rightful destiny sooner rather than later it needs regional stability –meaning a managed balance with the U.S. and its supporters. It has to avoid provoking a coordinated backlash that could combine resources and share the strategic task of containing or constraining it.
Such blowback regarding China’s policies and actions—particularly those in the South China and East China Seas– is rapidly producing an incipient loose coalition that could do just that—the Quad Plus. Indeed, some of Asia is welcoming –and even facilitating a continued U.S. military presence and Taiwan is even trying to insert itself into the equation.
The choice for China is not about right or wrong or changing goals. It is about where and when to exercise restraint. The lack of it -or its preciseness- is providing an opening for its US-led competitors to mobilize a coalition against it. Indeed the US strategy of painting China as a threat to its neighbours and ‘the’ international order is gaining ground. The Quad and its activities are obviously aimed at containing China’s rise. One of its core tenets is “_ _ to prioritize the role of international law – – as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and facilitate collaboration, including in maritime security, to meet challenges to the rules-based maritime order in the East and South China Sea.”
China’s actions in those seas including its new law authorizing its coast guard to use force to defend its “sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction” have nudged Indonesia and Vietnam towards the US camp. Even the Philippines– which had been deftly won over in the soft power contest– is now having second thoughts about downgrading its alliance with the U.S. There is growing support for the decision of the South China Sea International Arbitration Tribunal invalidating China’s historic claim and the potential of more legal action by Vietnam. European powers are even buying into the US strategy and its myth that China is a threat to commercial freedom of navigation.
Similarly, China’s actions and the new law have strengthened the US-Japan alliance and provided an excuse for their militarization of the East China Sea.
China is dealing with these challenges individually by exploiting fundamental differences in interests and values between Quad members; and using economics and its astute diplomacy to prevail over legalities. But dealing with them all together, combined all at once may be too much even for China. At the least these ‘thousand pin pricks’ will slow China’s march towards its goal.
China has declared that it does not seek confrontation with the U.S. or dominance of the region. It needs to demonstrate this –at least for the time being.
The struggle for now is diplomatic and economic – not military– although that possibility and the disaster it would cause for all concerned lurks in the background. China needs to change its approach to the region and the South China and East China Seas in particular. It needs to do what the U.S. does not – work ‘with the grain’. In particular, China needs to up its diplomacy and drop its in your face wolf warrior approach.
As Kevin Rudd says “an effective foreign policy means bringing countries with you rather than alienating them. It means respecting the region as important in its own right, and making Southeast Asia a core part of its diplomatic priorities”, not ignoring or trying to divide it. China should not take Southeast Asian nations for granted or push them to ‘choose’.
If China continues with its increasingly belligerent and militarist approach, it could well snatch defeat from the jaws of victory or at least make it much more difficult to achieve. If it plays its cards right, the only country that can prevent China from achieving its goals is China itself. Slow and steady—or in international relations terms– restraint and patience — will win the race.
Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst focused on Asia and currently Adjunct Senior Scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China. This piece was originally published on March 28, 2021 on Pearls and Irritations.
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