US-China trade war raises risk of financial market ‘flash crash’, say analysts
Karen Yeung
South China Morning Post, November 20

“Fraser Lundie, co-head of credit and senior credit portfolio manager at Hermes Investment Management said investors needed to be selective in the current environment, where sentiments were fragile… (more specifically,) related to retail, rural telecoms, hospitals and auto parts because of growing uncertainty over their business models in the next five to 10 years.”

The trade war is pushing business out of China, but not into America
Michelle Toh
CNN Business, November 16

“China was once the dumping ground for half the world’s rubbish. But with 1.4 billion citizens, they are now struggling to cope with their own. With vast leaky landfills and hazardous backyard recycling centres. Beijing wants to modernise how it takes out the trash.”

“Many firms are keeping much of their operations in China, which offers a giant domestic market and advantages that businesses struggle to find elsewhere. But those that are moving aren’t flocking to the United States. Instead, they’re looking to transfer work to other Asian countries.”

Pence: It’s up to China to avoid a cold war
Josh Rogin
The Washington Post, November 13

Vice President of the United States, Mike Pence, “told me in an interview that Trump is leaving the door open for a deal with Xi in Argentina, but only if Beijing is willing to make massive changes that the United States is demanding in its economic, military and political activities. The vice president said this is China’s best (if not last) chance to avoid a cold-war scenario with the United States.”

“In addition to trade, Pence said China must offer concessions on several issues, including but not limited to its rampant intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, restricted access to Chinese markets, respect for international rules and norms, efforts to limit freedom of navigation in international waters and Chinese Communist Party interference in the politics of Western countries.”

China’s building spree in poor nations: Does it really help the local economy?
Joanne Lu
NPR, November 13

“Over the past two decades, [China] has financed and built bridges, hospitals, roads, railways, airports and seaports — many billions of dollars’ worth and counting. ‘China has recently become a major financier of economic infrastructure,’ according to a new report from AidData, a development finance research lab based at the College of William & Mary. That sounds like a good thing. But there are skeptics.”

“Development specialists say these accounts are concerning, yet some leaders of recipient countries still voice their preference for working with China. Their argument is that China is a “one-stop shop,” not only financing projects but building them as well. Often, it’s cheaper and faster to work with China than with traditional donors, like the World Bank, and it comes with fewer strings attached, such as requirements to privatize the project once it’s built.”

“There is no doubt that many Chinese investments have had a positive impact, regardless of how short-lived,’ says Jacqueline Muna Musiitwa, an international lawyer based in East Africa. ‘That said, it is important to determine [definitively] if incomes are increasing, what money is being spent on and whether quality of life is improving. It is not enough to look at economic growth figures, because they do not adequately tell the story at the micro-level or change our daily engagement with poverty.”

What China talks about when it talks about stimulus
The Economist, November 13

“For China as a whole, the government’s decision in 2008 to rev up investment was also a dividing line. Growth rebounded, while it sputtered elsewhere. Before the crisis China had a 6% share of global GDP; today it is closer to 16%. Yet there was a big downside. The economy became much more reliant on debt…But the excesses from 2008 constrain it today. China knows it cannot afford another binge.”

The US and China are talking again, but ‘competition’ is set to continue
Ankit Panda
The Diplomat, November 12

“The United States and China, after a delay, have concluded their second annual diplomatic and security dialogue at a time of unusually high bilateral tensions along all fronts. Even beyond the ongoing trade war, the recent meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of Defence James Mattis, Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi, and State Councillor and Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe follows several notable events.”

The deal Trump should strike With Xi
Geoffrey Garrett
Foreign Affairs, November 12

“Chinese President Xi Jinping will go to the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires at the end of November with one thing on his mind: defusing the trade war with the United States. That means striking a deal, and U.S. President Donald Trump is in a strong bargaining position. The current tit-for-tat tariffs hurt China more than they do the United States. The Chinese economy is more dependent on the United States than the U.S. economy is on China. The prospects for the U.S. economy look very good; there are growing storm clouds above the Chinese economy.”

How to counter China’s influence in the South Pacific
Charles Edel
Foreign Affairs, November 13

“In the U.S. National Defense Strategy published in January 2018, Washington announced the return of great power competition, branded China a ‘strategic competitor,’ and called for a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific.’ Despite these rhetorical developments, however, there remain lingering questions surrounding the Trump administration’s episodic engagement with the region, its failure to coordinate with allies on major issues, and inadequate resourcing for initiatives outside the military realm.”

On thin ice: Why the United States needs to invest in the Arctic
Jackson Segal
Brown Political Review, November 11

“The United States should be further concerned about Russia’s military and China’s economic strength because the two appear to be cooperating in the region. Recent joint military exercises between the two countries and massive Chinese investment in Russian territory indicate a growing alliance between the two countries. Russia recently agreed to let Chinese ships pass through Arctic waters, provided that China pays for a discounted Russian icebreaker escort. Further cooperation between Russia and China could give them uncontestable control over the region. Unless the US changes course, an alliance between the only two global powers invested in the Arctic would give Russia and China the power to expand Russian borders, loosen environmental norms, and extract considerable amounts of oil and gas.”

The cooperative rivalry of US-China relations
Joseph Nye
Project Syndicate, November 7

“The liberal international order helped China sustain rapid economic growth and reduce poverty dramatically. But China also tilted the trade field to its advantage by subsidizing state-owned enterprises, engaging in commercial espionage, and requiring foreign firms to transfer their intellectual property to domestic “partners.” While most economists argue that Trump is mistaken to focus on the bilateral trade deficit, many support his complaints about China’s efforts to challenge America’s technological advantage.”

“There is another dimension, however, that makes this fourth phase a ‘cooperative rivalry’ rather than a Cold War. China and the US face transnational challenges that are impossible to resolve without the other. Climate change and rising sea levels obey the laws of physics, not politics. As borders become more porous to everything from illicit drugs to infectious diseases to terrorism, the largest economies will have to cooperate to cope with these threats.”

China faces strong headwinds to mend ties with US after ‘missed opportunities’
Wendy Wu
South China Morning Post, November 7

“‘We are now in a very difficult position. I don’t see either side trying to break the downward slide of bilateral relations,’ said Orville Schell, Arthur Ross director of the Centre on US-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York. ‘Over the last 10 to 15 years, China has missed extremely good opportunities to rebalance the relations without any catastrophic effects,’ the American academic said on the sidelines of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore.”

China’s trade war woes won’t go away after Democrats’ midterm gains
Steven Jiang, Ben Westcott
CNN, November 7

“The Democrats have retaken the US House of Representatives, dealing a major blow to President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda, but if anxious politicians in Beijing think that means a reprieve from the White House, they should think again. China is one of the few policy areas where there is some bipartisan consensus. The Democrats broadly agree that the US should take tougher action against the rising power across a range of fronts, from the military, to trade, intelligence and diplomacy.”

“Even if the House wanted to, the power to slap tariffs on China is essentially vested in the executive — that’s President Trump. If he needs support from Congress on China policy in the future, the Democrats have shown few signs they’ll stand in his way. All this is bad news for Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose government has been scrambling to appease an increasingly hostile US administration, after attempts at flattery and acts of friendship early in Trump’s term didn’t quite deliver.”