It has been nearly two months since U.S. President Trump announced a “phase-one” partial deal in the Oval Office with Chinese vice-premier Liu He. Yet negotiations to finalize the deal are still ongoing. Rhetoric changes fast. At a press conference in London with NATO Secretary General on December 3, President Trump suggested that the U.S. and China may not come to an agreement on trade until 2020. “In some ways I think it’s better to wait for after the election, if you want to know the truth,” he said. However, a day later, the president said that discussions with China are going very well. The stock market revealed high expectations for a partial truce in the U.S.-China trade war as it slid down and climbed back up in response to both comments. As both economies have been experiencing low growth rates since the beginning of the trade war, signing a “phase-one” partial deal will be a huge relief and a welcome ‘Christmas present’ for investors.

Will Signing the “Phase-One” Partial Deal Ease the Tensions Between U.S. and China?

Not necessarily. President Trump’s indication of forthcoming Section 301 tariffs on imports from China on March 22, 2018, marked the beginning of a dramatic and bitter trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. Over the next 20 months, the trade war has become the highlight of U.S.-China relations, characterized by back-and-forth negotiations and endless tit-à-tat tariffs. Signing the “phase-one” partial deal before the end of this year, or, to be more specific, before December 15, would not only relieve concerns over the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese products, but could also lead to a grand finale for the two-year-long ‘Song of Ice and Fire’ trade dispute in U.S.-China relations.

A partial deal, however, will not comprehensively resolve disagreements between China and the U.S. over trade. Recent reports show that it will only touch on superficial issues such as Chinese agricultural purchases from the U.S. and the rolling back of previous U.S. tariffs on China. Each of the conflicting issues within the U.S.-China trade dynamics would require further negotiations. These complicated issues include, but are not limited to, intellectual property rights protection, subsidies to state-owned entities, and the ever-lasting U.S.-China trade deficit. Therefore, trade negotiations will continue to be a major feature in U.S.-China relations in 2020 since it will remain as one of the Trump administration’s top priorities.

Although the approach might be different from that of the Trump administration, the Democratic party shares many of the major concerns regarding trade with China. The importance of addressing intellectual property theft and unfair practices is acknowledged by both parties. The three leading Democratic candidates all criticized China’s trade practices and vowed to address the issues, if elected. Therefore, regardless of the 2020 election outcome, disputes over trade will continue to be a significant topic in U.S.-China relations in the forthcoming years..

U.S.-China Relations is More Than Just the Trade War

Within the past 2 years, the trade war has captured many headlines when examining U.S.-China relations. However, it is not the only, and most, pressing issue that will continue to challenge the bilateral relationship. The notion of entering a new era of a renewed great power competition first emerged during the Obama Administration in 2015. The Trump administration conceptualized this notion, viewing China as a competitor who challenges American power, influence, and interests. Moreover, they also stated that Chinese actions are “eroding” American security and prosperity. Security dynamics in U.S.-China relations will continue to be a core issue as China further modernizes its military to safeguard its growing domestic and international interests. U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region and China’s interests in the South and East China sea regions would require both countries to cautiously manage regional and global stability.

The great power competition also consists of the two nations competing over the development of cutting-edge technology. Diplomatic and legal conflicts over Huawei is only a prologue of the growing competition over telecommunications and other leading technologies. The legal fight over the extradition of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou alone could last years. Regulations regarding the Chinese telecommunication tycoon will continue to be a hot topic in U.S.-China relations.

Looking forward, addressing issues such as intellectual property rights, security in Chinese technology, and U.S. tariffs will not suffice to alleviate friction between the “superpower” and “rising power.” Indeed, trade negotiations are important to US.-China relations, hence worth following; however, overly focusing on the topic would be counterproductive in improving US.-China relations. The perceived “genuine gold,” the Trade War, is merely the “glitters amongst the chicken feed”.

Managing future U.S.-China relations will require young professionals from all relevant industries (i.e. diplomacy, economy, law, finance, technology, security, etc.) to contribute to a systematic understanding on various matters. Cross-sector collaboration is not only essential for creating a deeper understanding of key issues between domestic professionals, but also for building mutual understanding between the two nations in a new era of great power competition.This new era should not be characterized as a competition that leads to “decoupling”, but rather a balance of power based on the inter-dependency of the two powers. Signing the “phase one” partial deal is neither the end, nor the beginning of the end. Rather, it is the end of the beginning of a new era in U.S.-China relations.

Yilun Zhang is a Research and Administrative Assistant at the Institute for China-America Studies

Asiana Cooper is a Research Assistant at the Institute for China-America Studies