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Special Commentary

The South China Sea Maritime Tracker: Introducing ICAS’ Newest Learning Tool

By Matt Geraci

June 21, 2019
Screenshot of the interactive ICAS South China Sea Maritime Issue Tracker

In the News

Trump to meet Xi at G20 amid raging trade war. He says the Chinese leader is a “terrific guy”
Ben Westcott, Steven Jiang, and Kevin Liptak
CNN, June 18

“US President Donald Trump has announced plans for an ‘extended’ meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 Summit in Japan next week, a significant development aimed at resolving the ongoing trade war between the two countries. Speaking at the White House Tuesday, Trump said US and Chinese negotiators would resume negotiations on Wednesday ahead of his planned talk with Xi at the sidelines of the summit of Osaka. On Twitter, Trump confirmed he had spoken with Xi by telephone earlier in the day… Trump said that he wanted a ‘good deal and a fair deal or we’re not going to have a deal at all,’ adding that Xi was a ‘terrific person.’ US stocks rose by about 1.4% afterward.”

Xi Jinping Will Make First Visit to North Korea Ahead of Meeting with Trump
Jane Perlez
The New York Times, June 17

“Xi Jinping plans to visit North Korea later this week, his first trip there as president and a surprise move shortly before President Trump and Mr. Xi are expected to meet at an economic summit.”

Huawei Expects $30 Billion Revenue Hit From U.S. Clampdown
Dan Strumpf
The Wall Street Journal, June 17

“The U.S. campaign against Huawei Technologies Co. is taking a toll, with the company’s founder forecasting a hit to revenue of about $30 billion over the next two years.”

US cities and states woo Chinese investment despite trade war
Alex Fang and Yifan Yu
Nikkei Asian Review, June 15

“City and state governments in the U.S. remain eager for Chinese investment even as strident rhetoric from Washington and trade war uncertainty kept many delegates from China away from recent trade events. Just 77 Chinese delegates attended the SelectUSA Investment Summit, an economic development conference held by the U.S. Department of Commerce, compared to 101 last year and 155 in 2017.”

Huawei asks Verizon to pay over $1 billion for over 230 patents: source
David Shepardson
Reuters, June 12

“Huawei Technologies Co Ltd has told Verizon Communications Inc that the U.S. carrier should pay licensing fees for more than 230 of the Chinese telecoms equipment maker’s patents and in aggregate is seeking more than $1 billion, a person briefed on the matter said on Wednesday.”

U.S. Stocks Edge Higher as China Plans New Stimulus
Avantika Chilkoti and Asjylyn Loder
The Wall Street Journal, June 11

“U.S. equity markets rose Tuesday, boosted by fresh stimulus measures out of China designed to support the world’s second-largest economy.”

Chinese Cash Is Suddenly Toxic in Silicon Valley, Following U.S. Pressure Campaign
Rolfe Winkler
The Wall Street Journal, June 11

“Since late last year, amid rising U.S.-China tensions, venture firms with China ties have been dialing back their U.S. investments, structuring deals in novel ways to avoid regulators or altogether shutting down. Some American venture firms are dumping their Chinese limited partners or walling them off with special structures.”

Trump says the US needs a “fair playing field” against China’s weaker currency as yuan hits lows of the year
Patti Domm
CNBC, June 10

“President Donald Trump said China has given itself a ‘tremendous competitive’ advantage by weakening its currency, and the playing field needs to be leveled. Trump said the ability of Chinese President Xi Jinping to directly impact monetary policy is an unfair advantage. Trump made the comments as the Chinese yuan traded near its low of the year against the U.S. dollar.”

“Trump said the U.S. decided not to call China a currency manipulator, but he added there are some who say China has offset its tariffs by letting the currency fall. Trump has repeatedly voiced his frustration with the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates last year, and now for not cutting them. However, many Fed watchers are not forecasting two rate cuts this year, possibly as soon as July.”

U.S. Bulk Up Coast Guard in Pacific to Counter China Fleet
Philip Heijmans and Glen Carey
Bloomberg, June 10

“Cutters to assist with fishing disputes, says vice admiral. Says return to disputed seas consistent with past deployments.”

U.S. Targets Efforts by China, Others to Recruit Government Scientists
Timothy Puko and Kate O’Keeffe
The Wall Street Journal, June 10

“Officials say Energy Department researchers are recruited by military-affiliated groups and lured with multimillion-dollar packages.”

Taiwan put on US defence department list of “countries” in latest move likely to goad China
Mark Magnier
South China Morning Post, June 7

“The Trump administration’s move to include Taiwan on a list of “countries” in a US Department of Defence report is the latest in a series of provocative moves that appear aimed at confronting China, and putting it on notice.”

New U.S. Arctic strategy omits climate change, takes aim at China, Russia
Andrew Freedman
Axios, June 7

“The new strategy makes mention of melting sea ice and increasing temperatures in the Arctic, but does not cite human-caused climate change as the driver of these trends. The strategy refers to the Arctic as a potential corridor of ‘expanded strategic competitions.’ It also warns of China’s extension of its Belt and Road Initiative to the region and pursuit of dual-use infrastructure to project power to the Far North.”

“While the new strategy suggests the U.S. will deploy more forces to the Arctic and seek to assert itself more in the region, there are limited opportunities to do so in the near-term due to a lack of Arctic-capable military assets. These range from America’s tiny number of icebreakers when compared to Russia, as well as the lack of serviceable military outposts in the region.”

Huawei to sell undersea cable unit to deflect US spy claims
Takashi Kawakami
Nikkei Asian Review, June 4

“Smaller Chinese group to buy venture that installed lines in Asia and Africa.”

U.S. Factory Activity Slowed in May
Harriet Torry
The Wall Street Journal, June 3

“ISM’s manufacturing index fell to lowest reading since October 2016.”

Chinese defense minister warns US not to interfere regional security dispute
Zack Budryik
The Hill, June 2

“China’s defense minister lambasted the U.S. this weekend for what he said was undue interference in regional disputes relating to Taiwan and the South China Sea. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe said Sunday at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s foremost defense summit, that China would “fight to the end” against meddling into its relationship with Taiwan, which China considers a Chinese territory.”

“‘If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese military has no choice but to fight at all costs,’ Wei said, according to Reuters. ‘The U.S. is indivisible, and so is China. China must be, and will be, reunified.’ Both nations, he added, understand that outright war ‘would bring disaster to both countries and the world.’ The U.S. does not have any formal ties to Taiwan but has sold it arms and aroused Chinese ire in May when U.S. and Taiwanese officials met for a security summit, the first of its kind in decades.”

Articles and Analysis

Xi Jinping’s Trade Conundrum
Christopher K. Johnson
Foreign Affairs, June 20

“Xi has two competing—and possibly contradictory—impulses when it comes to managing the trade dispute with Washington. On the one hand, he wants to show that China is no longer the weak and backward country that suffered a “century of humiliation” at the hands of Western and Japanese imperialists. Rather, it has become a strong, confident, and modern power. On the other hand, Xi is fully aware that China is struggling to manage its transition from an old, dirty, and industry-heavy economy to a twenty-first-century knowledge economy. Such a transition will inevitably cause substantial economic dislocations, which risk disrupting the country’s seemingly smooth and inexorable rise. But any prolonged setback runs the risk of increasing Chinese dependency on the United States at a time when Washington’s trade policies are particularly unfriendly.”


The U.S. Is Purging Chinese Cancer Researchers From Top Institutions

Peter Waldman
Bloomberg, June 13

“At a June 5 hearing, NIH officials told the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance that the agency has contacted 61 research institutions about suspected diversion of proprietary information by grant recipients and referred 16 cases, mainly involving undisclosed ties to foreign governments, for possible legal action. Ways of working that have long been encouraged by the NIH and many research institutions are now quasi-criminalized, with FBI agents reading private emails, stopping Chinese scientists at airports, and visiting people’s homes to ask about their loyalty.”

“From 1997 to 2009, 17% of defendants indicted under the U.S. Economic Espionage Act had Chinese names. From 2009 to 2015, that rate tripled, to 52%. As the number of cases soared, evidence of actual espionage lagged behind. One in five of the Chinese-named defendants was never found guilty of espionage or any other serious crime in the cases between 1997 and 2015 – almost twice the rate of wrongful accusations among non-Chinese defendants.”

The US and China’s Arctic Ambitions”
Mercy A. Kuo
The Diplomat, June 11

“China has a legitimate economic and political interest in the region, as do all other Arctic and non-Arctic countries. As long as China abides by international norms and rules, be it environmental regulations, labor laws, or trade rules, its economic interests and investments should be understood as opportunities, not threats.”

“Importance lies in the continued engagement with and binding China into the existing international fora and dialogues. In this regard, the United States’ brash statements directed at both China and Russia ahead of the Arctic Council ministerial meeting in Rovaniemi may prove to have been counterproductive. The best way to ensure continued peaceful cooperation in the region will lie in the strengthening of the Arctic Council, not the antagonization of select members or observers. This could weaken the collaborative nature of the Council and may push both China and Russia out of existing frameworks and networks.”

Amid Polarization, Bipartisanship Emerges on China, Big Tech”
Gerald F. Seib
The Wall Street Journal, June 10

“In a time of almost paralyzing partisanship and polarization, it’s easy to miss the fact that on two of the biggest issues in the national debate there is actual bipartisanship. The two big issues are trade with China and new regulation of big tech companies. On both subjects, the two parties are more together than apart, and the Trump administration and Congress are more in harmony than off-key.”

“That hardly means there is complete agreement, of course, but the disagreements tend more toward tactics and degree than basic approach. Perhaps that’s a sign that really big threats – and a Chinese government and tech giants both behaving badly strike many as real threats – still can unite people across the political spectrum.”

How the US government can counter China’s growing media influence
Sarah Cook and Annie Boyajian
The Hill, June 6

“Actions by American policymakers and media development donors will play a critical role in coming years to counter the potential negative impact of Beijing’s media influence campaigns. There are several steps that Congress, the Trump administration and other U.S. governmental bodies can take:”

“· Increase transparency – take action to enhance publicly available information about Chinese media influence activities in the UNited States.
· Sanction Chinese diplomats – the Department of State should sanction diplomats and security agents when they overstep their bounds and attempt to interfere with media reporting and operations by independent news outlets in the United States. U.S. officials should protest such incidents, conveying that such behavior may violate diplomatic protocols.
· Scrutinize censorship and surveillance – Congress should look closely at Tencent’s apparent censorship of Americans’ communications on WeChat.
· Support independent Chinese-language media – U.S. grant-making entities and other agencies should support media that offer an alternative to Chinese state media for Chinese Americans.”

The Real Origins of The U.S.-China Cold War
Charles Edel and Hal Brands
Foreign Policy, June 2

“There are several implications for U.S. policy toward China. First, there is little that the United States can realistically do to appease or reassure Chinese leaders. Unless Washington withdraws U.S. military forces to Hawaii and abandons its Pacific allies, and unless it ceases advocating on behalf of democratic values and human rights abroad, the Chinese leadership will remain convinced that America’s chief aim is to contain its rise and undermine its stability.”

“Second, if the United States remains unwilling to cede Beijing a sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific, it needs to shore up its regional defenses by reinforcing the regional security architecture as well as its own sovereign capabilities. Third, U.S. officials must understand that the competition is both geo-political and ideological. Finally, mounting an appropriate response to China can only happen with sustained popular support.”

“A ‘Bridge’ to China, and Her Family’s Business, in the Trump Cabinet”
Michael Forsythe, Eric Lipton, Keith Bradsher, and Sui-Lee Wee
The New York Times, June 2

“The email arrived in Washington before dawn. An official at the American Embassy in Beijing was urgently seeking advice from the State Department about an ‘ethics question.’”

“’I am writing you because Mission China is in the midst of preparing for a visit from Department of Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao,’ the official wrote in October 2017.”

“Ms. Chao’s office had made a series of unorthodox requests related to her first scheduled visit to China as a Trump cabinet member, according to people with knowledge of the email. Among them: asking federal officials to help coordinate travel arrangements for at least one family member and include relatives in meetings with government officials.”

“In China, the Chaos are no ordinary family. They run an American shipping company with deep ties to the economic and political elite in China, where most of the company’s business is centered. The trip was abruptly canceled by Ms. Chao after the ethics question was referred to officials in the State and Transportation Departments and, separately, after The New York Times and others made inquiries about her itinerary and companions.”

Past Events

China’s Belt and Road, Altering the Global Ecosystem
Event hosted by Duke in DC, June 19, 2019

Asia Policy Assembly 2019
Event hosted by The National Bureau of Asian Research, June 18-19, 2019

China’s payment system: Revolution, evolution, or passing fad?
Event hosted by Brookings, June 17, 2019

Collateral Damage? Research Collaboration in an Age of U.S.-China Competition
Event hosted by CSIS, June 4, 2019

China’s New Red Guard: The Return of Radicalism and the Rebirth of Mao Zedong
Event hosted by Wilson Center, June 3, 2019

Conflict scenarios with Russia and China
Event hosted by Brookings, June 3, 2019

Upcoming Events

Maritime Irregular Warfare: Preparing to Meet Hybrid Maritime Threats
Event hosted by Hudson Institute, June 26, 2019

China’s New Media Dilemma: The Profit in Online Dissent
Event hosted by National Endowment for Democracy, June 27, 2019

Commentary

The South China Sea Maritime Tracker: Introducing ICAS’ Newest Learning Tool

By Matt Geraci, Maritime Tracker Project Manager

Background

Maritime Asia encompasses two distinct sea areas – the East China Sea and the South China Sea. These seas have been characterized by long-standing territorial and maritime disputes that have largely remained unsettled for decades. Reasons for these tensions vary. They range from seeking to extract economic resources, such as fisheries and fossil fuels to maintaining a strong surveillance foothold over important trade and navigational pathways to securing and defending the integrity of one’s territorial claims. According to Gordon Houlden, Director of the China Institute of the University of Alberta, and Nong Hong, Executive Director of the Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS):

The status quo in the East Asia maritime domain is attributed to, in addition to geopolitical factors and competition for resources, the interpretive ambiguities embedded in [United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)] provisions about the rights and obligation of user states and coastal states respectively, and about competing claims over national jurisdiction among coastal states based on UNCLOS.

The Arctic Region too has witnessed increasing attention from within and outside the region, a patchwork of overlapping maritime rights claims, as waterways once inaccessible have become navigable during the summer months and accessible to resource exploitation.

As one of the foremost bridges between U.S. and Chinese institutions and scholars, particularly in the area of strategic studies, ICAS is well-situated to provide objective analysis and create learning tools for the public to better understand important maritime policy-related issues that concern the China-U.S. relationship as well as China’s ties with its Asian neighbors and the U.S.’s ties with Maritime Asia. In this regard, ICAS has produced its first of several upcoming maritime trackers, the South China Sea Maritime Tracker, for the sake of furthering this goal. The purpose of the Tracker is to provide an interactive and easy-to-understand visual reference of the multiple sovereignty and sovereign rights and jurisdiction-related disputes in the South China Sea, and thereby advance an objective and user-friendly appreciation of the complex dynamics at play. As such, the Tracker includes features such as a visual display of settled and disputed boundaries, territorial occupancies, internationally submitted sovereign rights and jurisdiction claims, areas of functional cooperation, and more. This commentary outlines in brief the research and development methodology, as well as the focus of study, that ICAS scholars utilized to produce its first maritime tracker.

Methodology

ICAS datasets on maritime boundaries, claims, and events are gathered from a variety of sources, including government publications, stakeholder submissions to the United Nations, and international media. For some events, such as the U.S.’ Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), locations must be approximated, as the exact locations are often not publicly available. In these situations, the maritime tracker team at ICAS relies on international multimedia reporting to verify approximate locations. ICAS ensures that it provides the source for each dataset utilized in order to enhance the transparency of this learning tool.
Although not every event makes the headlines in international media, the events taking place must be kept track of in order to better understand the complex relationships between stakeholders in the region. Clearly defined naming conventions and criteria must be laid out in order to create a clean and useful dataset. Although some specific criteria may differ between each unique tracker, ICAS has set general guidelines to follow when recording data for each event:

· The latitude and longitude of the event will be expressed in decimal degrees.
· The location of the event will be noted if the exact location is known or if it was approximated.
· The year, month, and day of the event will be provided.
· A shorthand title of an event will be used for simplification purposes.
· Each event will fall into a category and/or subcategory to better inform how the event is visually displayed.
· The names of stakeholders directly involved in the event will be included.
· If any, the names of important leaders involved in the event will be named.
· A brief background description of the event will be included.
· If publicly available, an image of the event will be included.
· The source where information on the event was found will be cited.

To convert datasets into useful and informative images and layers on an interactive map, ICAS is making use of a mapping and analytics platform called ArcGIS. This software utilizes a geographic information system (GIS), which is a framework used to analyze spatial location and organize multiple layers of visualizations on maps. GIS allows one to visualize and manipulate data in new ways to gain deeper insights in patterns and relationships that otherwise would have remained invisible. ArcGIS has an online, cloud-based platform called ArcGIS Online, which allows ICAS to update each tracker on a rolling basis. As these trackers involve highly nuanced and contain interconnected issues, the ICAS maritime tracker team welcomes comment and feedback.

The South China Sea Maritime Tracker

The South China Sea is one of the most hotly contested maritime regions in the world today. Six parties, China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam all have overlapping territorial and maritime claims in the region, with each claimant citing historical records, international treaties or differing interpretations of UNCLOS to substantiate or legitimize their claim. These disputes have led their navies, coastguards, and fishing fleets to becoming frequently embroiled in maritime claims-related encounters.

Non-claimant States also have an increasing economic, political, and strategic stake in the region, including ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, Australia, Japan, India, and South Korea. The South China Sea is one of the world’s most critical sea lines for shipping and global trade. The United States in particular is an active non-claimant State in the South China Sea through its Freedom of Navigation Operations. Non-claimant stakeholders have a common interest in mitigating geopolitical crises and maintaining navigational freedoms, including right of passage, in order to allow for trade to thrive in the region.

South China Sea claimants have worked together in the past, bilaterally and within larger groups, in attempts to resolve some of these disputes peacefully. Notwithstanding these efforts, each of the sovereignty disputes and a majority of the maritime rights-related disputes remain unresolved at this point of time. It is in this context that this Tracker, as part of the Institute for China-America Studies’ commitment to knowledge dissemination and mutual understanding, is intended as a handy tool for the public to better understand these disputes and stay on top of the latest developments in the South China Sea.

The South China Sea has periods of hot and cold activity. Although it is rare that any one event occurring elsewhere in the world would be the sole cause of an event occurring in the South China Sea, many of these incidents likely do not happen in a vacuum. However, one should be wary of jumping to conclusions of a definite cause and effect relationship between the timing of a South China Sea event, such as a FONOP, with another event in the world, such as developments in the current U.S.-China trade negotiations.

This first tracker focuses on several key areas:

· The actual submitted sovereign rights and jurisdiction claims as well as treaties by each claimant
· The occupation of each South China Sea land formation by claimant
· Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) conducted by the United States

Often times, maps depicting claims in the South China Sea are displayed in one of two ways: what the claims should look like, or what the claims actually look like. It is important to differentiate between the two, because what the claims should look like may not accurately reflect a stakeholder’s United Nations-submitted claim or furnish an objective basis to assess the underlying claimants’ rights and obligations. For instance, although the many claims submitted to UNCLOS from various South China Sea stakeholders indicate overlapping claims, at the level of domestic law, the claims are drawn far more extensively and differ markedly from their internationally submitted companion claim. Therefore, ICAS decided it would give precedence to the internationally submitted claims as well as the major territorial occupancies – given that they go to the heart of the charged sovereignty issue and are central to each bilateral or multilateral dispute.

Conclusion

The South China Sea Maritime Tracker is the first of a handful of upcoming maritime trackers that will be produced by the Institute for China-America Studies to track major events in Maritime Asia and beyond. These maps are intended to be updated on a rolling basis in order to stay relevant and informative. As one of the primary intentions of these trackers is to encourage discussion and analysis of complex maritime security issues that impact the U.S.-China relationship, ICAS welcomes constructive submissions, questions or comments.


Matt Geraci is the Research Associate & Program Officer at the Institute for China-America Studies.