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Featured Analysis:

“The Unknowable Fallout of China’s Trade War Nuclear Option”

By Andrew Ross Sorkin for the New York Times

October 16, 2018
Official seal of the U.S. Department of the Treasury

Featured Opinion

The Unknowable Fallout of China’s Trade War Nuclear Option
Andrew Ross Sorkin
The New York Times, October 9

“Even in the gloomiest of doomsday scenarios, there is one weapon that has long been considered unthinkable: the Chinese, the biggest holder of United States foreign debt with more than $1 trillion, publicly taking a step back from buying United States Treasuries — or worse, dumping what they own in the open market.”

In the News

Chinese ambassador to US says Beijing doesn’t know who to deal with
Ben Westcott, Steven Jiang
CNN, October 15

China posts record trade surplus with the US in September, Beijing says
Huileng Tan
CNBC, October 12

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: I won’t be ‘losing any sleep’ if China dumps US bonds in retaliation over trade
Berkeley Lovelace Jr.
CNBC, October 12

Chinese finance ministry official says ‘optimistic’ on trade war breakthrough
Chen Yawen
Reuters, October 10

Japan and Vietnam join hands over disputed South China Sea
South China Morning Post, October 8

China’s markets tumble after the central bank moves to spur the economy
Eustance Huang
CNBC, October 8

China-U.S. Tensions Flare in Testy Pompeo Visit to Beijing
Bloomberg, October 8

China says Pence’s allegations of meddling created ‘out of thin air’
Joshua Berlinger, Steven Jiang
CNN, October 5

US and China are at risk of a ’10- or 20-year’ economic cold war, former Fed governor Warsh says
Matthew J. Belvedere
CNBC, October 4

US, Russia, China, others to sign agreement preventing illegal fishing in Arctic
Steve Bittenbender
Seafood Resource, October 3

U.S. military comes to grips with over-reliance on Chinese imports
Phil Stewart, Mike Stone
Reuters, October 2

China’s biggest steel province gets tough on mills with ultra-low emissions targets in war on smog
South China Morning Post, October 2

American and Chinese Warships Narrowly Avoid High-Seas Collision
Steven Lee Myers
New York Times, October 2

IMF chief warns of economic slowdown on back of trade disputes
Richard Partington
The Guardian, October 1

Articles and Analysis

Trump Embraces Foreign Aid to Counter China’s Global Influence
Glenn Thrush
New York Times, October 14

“President Trump, seeking to counter China’s growing geopolitical influence, is embracing a major expansion of foreign aid that will bankroll infrastructure projects in Africa, Asia and the Americas — throwing his support behind an initiative he once sought to scuttle.”

China’s War On Waste
Al Jazeera, October 11

“China was once the dumping ground for half the world’s rubbish. But with 1.4 billion citizens, they are now struggling to cope with their own. With vast leaky landfills and hazardous backyard recycling centres. Beijing wants to modernise how it takes out the trash.”

“Chinese consumers are being told to sort their own rubbish for recycling. Proposals are in place to restrict single-use packaging and the government wants big city incinerators to burn most household waste by 2020.”

Under Trump, U.S. enters a new ‘Cold War’ with China
Ishaan Tharoor
Washington Post, October 11

“The Trump administration is throwing down the gauntlet in front of China. It has already launched the first major salvos of a trade war. It approved a $330 million arms sale to Taiwan last month. And now its top officials are taking part in a rhetorical offensive against Beijing that shows few signs of abating.”

Is China or Russia America’s Defining Rival?
Reihan Salam
The Atlantic, October 9

“Late last week, as most of America’s political class was transfixed by the denouement of the Kavanaugh confirmation battle, Vice President Mike Pence gave a wide-ranging address on the U.S. relationship with China, and why the Trump administration is committed to opposing its expansionist designs. For the most part, it was a familiar litany of complaints about China’s efforts to coerce its neighbors in the western Pacific, its trade abuses, its hostility to religious freedom, and its support of unsavory regimes around the world. Yet halfway through his remarks, the vice president shifted his emphasis, turning from all the various ways the Chinese party-state was acting in the world outside America’s borders to how it was seeking to influence political and cultural life inside them.”

Trump Reaches for Checkbook Diplomacy to Counter China
Keith Johnson
Foreign Policy, October 8

“In a stark reversal, the ‘America First’ administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has ramped up Washington’s ability to compete with China in financing development around the world, pushing back against what administration officials have called Beijing’s ‘debt trap diplomacy.”

Will China Hack the U.S. Midterms?
Adam Segal
New York Times, October 5

“President Trump recently accused the Chinese of interfering in American politics ahead of the midterm elections. “They do not want me or us to win because I am the first president to ever challenge China on trade,” he said, addressing the United Nations Security Council. He provided no evidence, and appeared to be complaining mostly about retaliatory tariffs by the Chinese government, which may hurt constituencies that support him, and an advertorial touting U.S.-China trade in an Iowa newspaper.”

Dealing with China, America goes for Confucian honesty
The Economist, October 4

“It takes nerve for a White House official to pick a fight with China’s government and claim that Confucius gave him the idea. Matt Pottinger, senior director for Asia at the National Security Council, did just that with a speech at the Chinese embassy in Washington on September 29th. Citing Confucian strictures on the dangers of hypocrisy, Mr Pottinger urged his audience to take seriously the Trump administration’s decision to brand America and China as competitors. To ignore such an evolution in relations was to invite miscalculations, he added, dropping into Mandarin to recite the Confucian counsel: “If names cannot be correct, then language is not in accordance with the truth of things; and if language is not in accordance with the truth of things, affairs cannot be carried on to success.” It was quite a moment. Read between the lines. A Trump aide was declaring an end to years of warm words about welcoming China’s rise.”

“Confucian scholars call this doctrine the “rectification of names”. As trade tensions deepen between China and America, both powers are being careful with their name-calling. Chinese officials avoid stoking the fires of nationalism. They have not rebuked Mr Trump personally, instead chiding America for “trade hegemonism” and other abstruse offences that are hard to chant at protest rallies.”

Pentagon Accuses China of Dumping Products to Undermine U.S. Security
Lara Seligman
Foreign Policy, October 2

“A U.S. Defense Department-led review ordered by President Donald Trump concludes that the Chinese government is deliberately leveraging its monopoly on certain key natural resources to undermine the U.S. defense industrial base, sources told Foreign Policy ahead of the study’s release.”

“The study accuses Beijing of flooding world markets with certain materials critical to the manufacture of fuel used in U.S. missiles and rockets and components of U.S. military jets, among other items. It concludes that China is carrying out this policy as a way of forcing U.S. suppliers out of business, said one administration official.”

Past Events

China’s Alliances with North Korea and the Soviet Union: A Conversation with China’s Leading Historians
Event hosted by Wilson Center History and Public Policy Program, October 4

This was a book launching event for the book A Misunderstood Friendship: Mao Zedong, Kim Il-sung, and Sino-North Korean Relations, 1949–1976, and Mao and the Sino–Soviet Split, 1959-1973: A New History. On October 4th at the Wilson Center. The featured speakers for this event were: Dr. Zhihua Shen, Dr. Danhui Li, and Dr. Yafeng Xia. They talked about the friendship between the Soviet Union and China and discussed how these two countries split apart during the the Cold War.

Turning Nuclear Swords Into Plowshares in North Korea
Event hosted by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 5

This event focused on the future steps for the United States and its allies on the North Korea nuclear issue. The representative from Japan, Ambassador Kenichiro Sasae, said that denuclearization is important, however, building trust between countries and North Korea is also essential. The United States and its allies should approach denuclearization in a comprehensive way that maintains peace and stability in the region.

Video of the event available here

China’s environmental agenda: Local tolls and global goals
Event hosted by Brookings Institution, October 9

This event explored China’s environmental agenda and how it fits into the global fight against climate change. Panelists Joanna Lewis, Associate Professor of Science, Technology, and International Affairs of Georgetown University, Scott Moore, Director of the Future of China Project and Associate Professor of Practice in the Study of Contemporary China of University of Pennsylvania, and Barbara Finamore, Senior Strategic Director, Asia of Natural Resources Defense Council, all agreed that China has invested a great deal of capital on clean and renewable energy in order to tackle the environment issue. The panelists also argued that cooperation between the United States and China in combating global climate change should accelerate rather than recede as it has done in recent years. Finamore offered up The U.S.–China Clean Energy Research Center (CERC) as an example of successful cooperation on sharing intellectual property on renewable energy technology. She argued that sharing intellectual property is an essential way to reduce the price of clean energy.

Video of the event available here

8th Annual Jamestown China Defense and Security Conference
Event hosted by The Jamestown Foundation, October 11

The conference explored the security challenges of a changing US-China bilateral relationship. The four panels covered the trade war’s impact on China’s domestic politics, Asian flashpoints and how their increasing interaction with China impacts regional tensions, the work of the United Front and how it serves China’s overseas influence promotion, and traditional, non-traditional and emerging threats from the PLA in the new era.

Video of the event available here

Report Launch: Defusing the South China Sea Disputes: A Regional Blueprint
Event hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 15

This report was authored by multiple CSIS fellows as part of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Gregory Poling, one of the authors of the report and director of AMTI explained that the motivations behind the report are to prove that the disputes in the South China Sea can be resolved and to provide a path forward. Poling suggested that the Code of Conduct (CoC) should not be used directly as a dispute management tool, but as a mechanism to prevent disputes from escalating. In order to achieve this goal, forming a commission which is made up of marine experts nominated by participating CoC countries would be helpful. The report also recommended that fisheries management and oil and gas exploration be taken into consideration in the course of framing the CoC.

Video of the event available here

Upcoming Events

Book Launch: Betraying Big Brother: The Feminist Awakening in China
Event hosted byCenter for Strategic and International Studies, October 18

China, Trade and Power Book Launch
Event hosted by Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 24

China’s Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability
Event hosted by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 24

11th Annual Conference on U.S. – China Relations & China’s Economic Development
Event hosted by The Elliott School of International Affairs, October 26