The Belt and Road Initiative: A Road to China’s World Cup Dreams?
Emily Weinstein
Jamestown Foundation, July 15

“Sports tourism, especially that surrounding soccer, has been an important albeit lesser-known component of BRI. Chinese media have argued that the sports industry is growing into one of China’s most dynamic sectors, as Chinese entities have begun to invest heavily in international teams, arenas, and events.”

“China saw opportunity, and has treated the World Cup as one of the most significant marketing opportunities for Chinese brands this year, with a diversity of Chinese firms supporting this year’s Cup. While commercial rationales are undoubtedly at work, Chinese firms’ eagerness to demonstrate their support also underscores their support for Xi Jinping’s World Cup and BRI aspirations, thus demonstrating China’s understanding that soccer—in addition to cultural exchanges, loans and infrastructure projects—may be another way to win hearts and minds in other countries.”

How the Trade War with China Will Affect the U.S.
The Atlantic, July 12

“With the onset of Trump’s trade war, diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China—the world’s largest and second-largest economies, respectively—have reached a crisis point. Yasheng Huang, a political economist, MIT professor, and the author of Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics, argues that ‘a trade war would negatively affect the interest of U.S. consumers, companies, and the financial system of the United States.’”

“Speaking at the 2018 Aspen Ideas Festival, Huang goes on to explain how the newly-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods will raise domestic prices. He also reveals how the U.S. and China can coexist ‘peacefully and profitably’—and why the onus is on America to bring that to fruition.”

Crisis in U.S. Nuclear Talks With Pyongyang Not China’s Doing, Experts Say
Keith Johnson
Foreign Policy, July 10

“President Donald Trump has suggested that China might be to blame for an apparent crisis in nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea — arguing that Beijing could be undermining the agreement because of anger over the escalating trade war with the United States. But experts believe it’s Trump’s own mishandling of the talks that has caused the disarray.”

U.S.-China Trade War: How We Got Here
Brade W. Setser
Council on Foreign Relations, July 9

“A trade war is, among other things, a legal process—at least in the United States. Congress has delegated a lot of authority over the regulation of international commerce to the executive branch, which has given the Trump Administration a lot of latitude. But Trump and his team are still working within the framework of U.S. trade law (“232s”, “301s,” “201s,” etc.).”

“I also wanted to gather together, for my own use if nothing else, a set of references to the specific policies that China has pursued that have given rise to a set of serious complaints about China’s commercial policies. Set aside the “original sin” of ignoring China’s massive foreign exchange intervention from 2003 to 2008—and still large intervention in the years immediately after the global crisis. The core of the current complaint is that:

1. China has made it hard to produce abroad and sell to China and,
2. China has made it hard to invest in China in order to produce and sell in China if your firm isn’t Chinese.”

Trump Tweets Again, Giving North Korea Chance to Take Advantage of U.S.-China Divide
Tom O’Connor
Newsweek, July 9

“President Donald Trump took to social media Monday to defend North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un over concerns that he was not living up to his end of a denuclearization deal struck by the two men last month. In doing so, he also criticized China and gave what experts called a potential advantage to Pyongyang, which has for decades played off the rivalries of major powers.”

“Despite the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s attack on ‘gangster-like’ demands— following Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Pyongyang and reports suggesting Kim may be continuing to improve a key nuclear research facility—Trump tweeted, ‘I have confidence that Kim Jong Un will honor the contract we signed &, even more importantly, our handshake. We agreed to the denuclearization of North Korea.'”

What the North Koreans Really Said On July 7
Robert Carlin
38 North, July 9

“The July 7 DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman’s statement appears to be a warning message to the US, carefully tinged with a tone more in sorrow than in anger. Overall, the key formulations are carefully balanced (e.g., frequently noting the task or dangers ahead for “both sides”) and buffered to leave the way open for further engagement.”

“Most important, instead of any hint of criticism of President Trump, the statement ends on a positive note: “We still cherish our good faith in President Trump,” underlining that the problem is not the President but rather “headwind against the wills of the two top leaders…” The point is not whether the North Koreans actually believe this, but that they are crafting their public position to leave the door open to future dealings between the two leaders.”

The U.S. Can’t Afford to Demonize China
Michael D. Swaine
Foreign Policy, June 29

“The United States and China’s lengthy track record of constructive engagement is disintegrating at an alarming rate, requiring a major correction by both sides. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s occasional talk of his “truly great” connection with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Xi’s constant references to “win-win” outcomes all round, recent policies and actions — especially on the U.S. side — have created an enormously destructive dynamic in the relationship.”

Trump’s weak case against China
Yu Yongding
Nikkei Asian Review, June 29

“No one wins in a trade war. Yet U.S. President Donald Trump seems determined to pursue one with China, which he accuses of causing America’s trade deficit, violating World Trade Organization rules, and using unfair practices to acquire foreign technology. While most economists marvel at Trump’s ignorance of how trade balances work, many broadly agree with his charges regarding intellectual property (IP). But the evidence supporting these claims is also weak, at best.”