Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Nord Stream projects were already a topic of intense debate. Critics argued that the pipelines increased Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, potentially giving Moscow undue influence over Europe, especially over Germany. The completion of Nord Stream 2, in particular, was seen by many as a strategic move to secure long-term energy supplies, despite the U.S. and Eastern European countries, particularly Ukraine, expressing concerns about the geopolitical risks involved.

In September 2022, six months after the start of the Russia invasion, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline was sabotaged in a series of underwater explosions. The blasts severely damaged the pipeline, leading to a complete halt in gas flow. The incident immediately triggered a flurry of accusations between Russia and Western nations, each blaming the other for the attack. Russia labeled the sabotage as an act of “international terrorism” and accused the West of seeking to destabilize its energy exports further. Conversely, Western officials initially suggested that Russia might have sabotaged its own infrastructure to heighten the energy crisis in Europe or to create a pretext for further military or political actions. 

Additionally, Nord Stream 2, not soon after its completion in 2021, faced immediate setbacks due to Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany, under intense international pressure and shifting political dynamics, halted the certification process for Nord Stream 2, effectively suspending the pipeline indefinitely.

Recent Events

Nearly two years after the Nord Stream 1 sabotage incident, controversy and arguments around the incident was again renewed by newly released findings. On August 18, 2024, a German investigation released its most recent findings and stated that a pro-Ukrainian group used a rented yacht to transport explosives to the site, where they were subsequently placed on the pipeline. This narrative has sparked significant controversy, particularly between U.S. and German officials, as they navigate the delicate diplomatic implications of these findings. These revelations have also intensified disputes within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with some member states, especially Poland, questioning the handling and communication of investigation results.

In contrast, Russia has consistently accused Western nations of orchestrating the sabotage. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently reiterated this position, claiming that the United States had ordered the explosions as part of a broader strategy to weaken Russia’s influence in Europe. Moscow has used this incident to further criticize the West, accusing European countries of being complicit in what it describes as an act of “international terrorism.”

Other countries have also been involved in investigating the Nord Stream 1 sabotage. Sweden, in particular, has conducted underwater surveys and forensic analyses to determine the cause and perpetrators of the explosions. Denmark has similarly been active in investigating the incident within its waters. Both countries have kept their findings largely under wraps, fueling speculation and frustration among the international community.

Keep In Mind

The ongoing investigation into the sabotage of Nord Stream 1 continues to be a source of tension, particularly between Germany and Poland. The recent findings have not only strained relations within Europe but also highlighted the fragile nature of western alliances during the Ukraine conflict. Germany, heavily reliant on Russian gas through Nord Stream, finds itself in a delicate position, balancing its energy needs with the growing pressure to reduce dependence on Russian resources. Meanwhile, Poland, a vocal critic of Nord Stream 2, has used the incident to reinforce its stance against the pipelines, further complicating intra-European dynamics as the war rages on into an uncertain future, as Ukrainian forces have made advances in some areas while losing ground in others in recent months.

As the war in Ukraine unfolds, scrutiny around the Nord Stream pipelines is expected to intensify. The differing conclusions and theories surrounding the Nord Stream 1 sabotage have created a vicious cycle of nations pointing fingers at one another. The situation remains unresolved, with the potential for further diplomatic fallout as more information comes to light. As the investigation continues, the Nord Stream 1 incident remains a significant flashpoint in the broader geopolitical tensions, underscoring the fragile state of relations between Russia and the West since the start of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.

This issue’s Spotlight was written by Yilun Zhang, ICAS Research Associate & Manager, Maritime Issue Tracker Project.