2024-The South China Sea at a Crossroads, More Unilateral Actions Ahead (9DASHLINE In Forum)

The following is an excerpt from 9DASHLINE’s “In Forum: 2024 – The South China Sea at a Crossroads,” released on February 2, 2024, in which several topical experts responded to the following prompt:

The South China Sea remains one of the most potentially explosive regions in the world. Last year saw rising tensions between China and the Philippines over disputed waters with several incidents involving hostile Chinese vessels. Other countries also continue to stake their claims in the region and the ongoing ‘freedom of navigation’ operations by the United States shape one of the world’s busiest trade and shipping routes. The situation in the South China Sea unites the worst of two worlds: an entrenched conflict that remains unresolved despite decades of mediatory efforts and new dynamics such as increased US-China competition or the Russia-Ukraine war.

In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE invites several experts to assess the prospects for stability in the South China Sea in 2024. What role can regional actors and organisations play in de-escalating the conflict and putting an end to the escalatory trends witnessed in 2023?

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MORE UNILATERAL ACTIONS AHEAD
DR NONG HONG — EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AND SENIOR FELLOW, INSTITUTE FOR CHINA-AMERICA STUDIES

Reflecting on the events of 2023, the South China Sea experienced a period of relative stability and manageability, but unforeseen incidents hinted at a pivotal juncture, signalling the onset of significant changes. In 2024, the South China Sea is set to persist as a prominent focal point of contention, amplifying the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, as well as among the coastal states in the region.

The competition between China and the United States, characterised by the escalation of their naval presence and active participation in military exercises, is anticipated to endure throughout 2024, signalling a sustained and potentially intensifying competition for dominance in the South China Sea. Furthermore, the upcoming year is expected to witness a concentrated surge of unilateral actions marked by the ‘assertion of rights’ and ‘expansion of rights’ by claimant countries. This includes unilateral oil and gas exploitation by certain nations, and the reinforcement and expansion of occupied features, among other developments. The South China Sea in 2024 is thus poised for continued volatility and complex dynamics as geopolitical forces vie for influence in this strategically significant maritime expanse.

Efforts to alleviate tension and enhance manageability in the South China Sea will necessitate strategic adjustments from both China as a coastal state and the United States as a user state. It is crucial to recognise that at the heart of the US-China maritime rivalry lies the distribution of power rather than disputes over sovereignty or freedom of navigation. Should China and the United States fail to effectively address each other’s reasonable concerns and abstain from meaningful discussions while solely emphasising their respective principles and stances, the inevitable consequence over time would be the escalating intensity of maritime conflicts and confrontations between the two countries.

China and the United States both hold a vested interest in upholding an open and harmonious regional maritime order. The contemporary rivalry between these nations predominantly centres around disputes concerning order and regulations. To ensure a stable maritime relationship, it’s imperative to establish a mutually recognised set of rules or an order embraced by both countries and the broader international community. Such an order, grounded in shared principles, respect for international law, and the interests of all stakeholders, can only be realised through extensive negotiations and dialogue.

In addition to strategically managing the relationship between China and the United States, it is imperative to effectively navigate the relationships among all coastal states. Recognising the challenges associated with resolving territorial and maritime disputes in the short term, the most pivotal approach lies in fostering regional cooperation. Such collaboration is indispensable for upholding regional stability, implementing sustainable resource management, safeguarding the environment, ensuring maritime safety, and fostering economic prosperity.

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