Arctic ambitions of China, Russia – and now the US – need not spark a cold war

The United States has always been a reluctant power in the Arctic. It has invested very little into its Arctic resources – with no real ports along Alaska’s Arctic waters, little military presence, and insufficient diplomatic engagement. However, in February, the US government allocated a total of US$675 million in funding for new icebreakers, which military leaders deem vital for competing with Russia and China in the Arctic.

When US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited America’s Nato ally, Iceland, on February 15, he also discussed China and Russia’s growing presence in the Arctic. It seems that the US has begun to shift its Arctic policy, now aimed at countering the growing influence of China and Russia in the high north.

Russia has reopened some of its abandoned military installations from the Soviet era and placed new facilities and airfields in its northern territory. It has also established a string of seaports along its northern coastline. In addition to its military presence, Russia plays a leading role in infrastructure development in the Arctic. Moscow has a five-year plan for Arctic investments in regional infrastructure and natural resource development.

In its Arctic policy white paper, issued in early 2018, China expresses a desire to work with all parties to build a “Polar Silk Road” by developing the Arctic shipping route. It encourages its enterprises to participate in infrastructure construction for these routes and to conduct commercial trial voyages in accordance with the law, to pave the way for regular commercial operations. Chinese investments in mining and energy industries are taking place in Iceland, Greenland, Russia and beyond. It has taken an active role in intensifying research in both the Arctic and Antarctic and maintains an active polar research programme.

The rapid expansion of Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic in recent years has been noted by the US government. The US State Department’s International Security Advisory Board released a report noting China’s cooperation with Russia in the development of natural gas deposits in the Yamal Peninsula. The report suggested that the impact of Sino-Russian cooperation on Arctic regional security has not attracted enough attention from the US government.

Some call it a new cold war, which sees Russia, China and the US all vying for influence and control in the Arctic. The recent US policy shift is driven by its concern about this increasing influence of Russia and China and the cooperation between the two.

The US tends to frame the growing Sino-Russian partnership in hard-power terms. However, US policymakers would have a different perception by looking at a broader picture in addressing Sino-Russian interests in the Arctic, as well as understanding that both great powers may have different long-term goals in the region.

Russia and China, though sharing a common desire in many aspects, have a complex relationship balancing competition and cooperation, with lingering mistrust on both sides. Their Arctic relationship will continue to be shaped by pragmatism, with a focus on mutual economic benefits rather than a strategic pact. Russia will remain cautious about Chinese ambitions. On the other hand, China will be wary of any movement by Arctic states to close access to the Arctic Ocean for any non-Arctic state.

Reviewing the US’ existing cooperation with Russia and China may also provide a broader view. For the most part, the US and China enjoy converging interests in the Arctic. China has the potential to be a strong partner if the two nations can address questions that are important to both.

The US and the Russia already cooperate on a wide variety of issues in the Arctic. They have signed a binding agreement to facilitate the conduct of research. And, in May last year, the International Maritime Organisation approved a joint US-Russian proposal for ship-routing measures in the Bering Strait.

Further, the Arctic Coast Guard Forum brings all eight Arctic states closer together to address their shared challenges in search and rescue operations in the region. At the Arctic Council, the US and Russia cooperate on initiatives related to environmental protection and sustainable development.

In addition to bilateral cooperation, there are also areas where China, Russia and the US share common interests and goals. In October last year, the three signed an agreement to prevent unregulated commercial fishing on the high seas in the Central Arctic Ocean – the first to use a legally binding, precautionary approach to protect an area from commercial fishing before it has begun in the area.

If this momentum of multilateral cooperation can be sustained over a meaningful period, it may help address other pressing issues of global importance in the Arctic. One example is a five-year project, Arctic Search and Rescue, which aims to improve Arctic emergency response capabilities. Thirteen nations, including the US and Russia, will participate.

Though China is not listed as a participating country, joining the project would be in its interests, considering the need for emergency-support and disaster-response capabilities.

The complex relationships between the US, Russia and China in the Arctic also raise concerns among other Arctic players. Spurred by China’s increased interest, Russia’s military presence, and the shift of American policy positions, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker last month called on the EU to take a leadership role in the Arctic, and increase European access to Arctic oil, gas, minerals, fish stocks and shipping routes.

Arctic governance involves multiple stakeholders – Arctic states, observers at the Arctic Council, indigenous peoples, and international institutions, among others. Competition is unavoidable. Arctic and non-Arctic states have different rights, interests and specific concerns. However, peace, stability and sustainable development in the Arctic serve the common interests of all stakeholders.

Cooperative partnerships that promote and enhance these interests will surely be the most appropriate way forward in a region of growing global importance.

This article originally appeared on South China Morning Post.