Introducing the ICAS Biden Administration International Affairs Personnel Tracker: How President Biden’s Appointees Will Shape the Trajectory of U.S.-China Relations

This Inauguration Day, the Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) is excited to announce the launch of the first phase of its Biden Administration International Affairs Personnel Tracker. The objective of the Tracker is to identify and understand the official positions of key players in the Biden Administration who will directly or indirectly impact the trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship in various sectors. This allows our audience to monitor major actions and policy decisions enacted by these individuals, as well as track significant bilateral and multilateral interactions with their Chinese counterparts.

In this first phase of the tracker, ICAS researchers explore President Joseph R. Biden’s selections for key cabinet and senior-level positions that directly (such as Secretary of State) or indirectly (such as the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate) impact the U.S.-China relationship. In order to simplify the Tracker for our audience, the appointments have been organized into four categories:

• Diplomacy & Foreign Policy,
• Trade & Finance,
• Defense & Security, and
• Climate, Health & Technology.

These categorizations are meant to generalize and better organize the overall primary purpose of these positions; however, they should not be viewed as strict divisions. Positions, such as Secretary of Energy and U.S. Trade Representative, can pertain to more than one category as the personnel work together on a myriad of complex issues. Additionally, the Tracker will evolve and be updated on a rolling basis and may not necessarily reflect all appointments ICAS intends to track until subsequent phases are released. A second phase of the Tracker is planned for release in mid-February 2021. It is hoped that this Biden Administration International Affairs Personnel Tracker will serve as a lens into the rapidly evolving changes in Washington’s international affairs.

For instance, looking at the Diplomacy & Foreign Policy category reveals different aspects of President Biden’s approach to foreign affairs — and the U.S.-China relationship in particular. Biden’s nomination of Obama-era veterans Antony Blinken for Secretary of State and Jake Sullivan for National Security Advisor implies that he will draw heavily from many of the same principals – and principles – that guided American foreign policy prior to President Donald Trump’s election. Another Obama-era appointee, Kurt Campbell, who is best known for masterminding Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, will continue to shape policy on how America engages with China as Biden’s Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs. In an essay that he published the day before his nomination announcement, he argued that two intertwining challenges threaten the balance in the Indo-Pacific region: 1) China’s increased assertiveness through its economic and military rise, and 2) a U.S. ambivalence through President Trump’s undermining of bilateral relations, multilateral processes and economic negotiations. To deter China’s increasingly aggressive pursuit of territorial and economic interests, Dr. Campbell believes it necessary for the United States to move away from seeking absolute primacy in the region, and instead invest in the relatively inexpensive and asymmetric capabilities of itself and regional actors across the Indo-Pacific.

In alignment with Dr. Campbell’s arguments, in the months leading up to the election all the way through his inauguration, President Biden has stressed the need for America to revitalize its presence in multilateral institutions. By nominating Linda Thomas-Greenfield as Ambassador to the United Nations, who is a career foreign service officer, and former Secretary of State John Kerry as a Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, Biden is attempting to express to America and that world that, in the words of Amb. Thomas-Greenfield, “America is back. Multilateralism is back. Diplomacy is back.” This is further exemplified by his re-elevation of Amb. Thomas-Greenfield’s position back to the Cabinet level.

At the time of publication, President Biden’s pick for Ambassador to China is noticeably absent from the Tracker. Conversations are likely occurring between Biden and the upper echelons of his foreign policy team, including Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Kurt Campbell, and William Burns, among others. Regardless of the outcome, Biden selection will send not only a strong message to President Xi Jinping and his government, but to the American public as well. This appointment comes at a crucial time, particularly so as the position has been vacant, and the anniversary of the Phase One Trade Deal has just recently passed. The question that remains is: What is the message that Biden wishes to send to the American public and China? With Xi appointing Vice Minister of Commerce Yu Jianhua as his new representative for international trade negotiations, it is clear that the Chinese government is bolstering its forces in preparation for renewed trade talks as well.

Reports are still highly speculative as to who President Biden will select for this key position, with even Pete Buttigieg reportedly being considered at one point before he was later nominated for Secretary of Transportation. American businesses, especially the multilateral business community, are eager to revitalize the trade relationship with China. This has been exemplified by CEO of Starbucks Howard Schultz’s recent ‘love letters’ with President Xi, in which the two expressed hopes for the Biden Administration to promote a more business-friendly atmosphere between American and Chinese companies. Bob Iger, executive chairman of The Walt Disney Company has reportedly expressed interest to the Biden team that he would be interested in this role. Selecting a businessperson like Iger could give the wrong impression, however, given that Biden has indicated during his campaign that he will generally pursue a harder-line agenda on China relative to the Obama years. Rather, it is more likely that Biden will select someone with greater political experience under their belt as a display of strength to China and to the American public.

Although President Trump had nominated Terry Branstad prior to his inauguration in December 2016, there is no clear trend on how early or late within the first term a president typically nominates an Ambassador to China. For instance, Obama nominated Jon Huntsman Jr. in May 2009, well into his first term. Although the position has been vacant since September 2020 as a result of Branstad’s departure, this does not necessarily mean that deliberations over his successor will end anytime soon. One thing is clear, however: whoever President Biden selects as Ambassador to China will send a strong message to Xi Jinping’s government and to the American public, as well as provide further insights on his general approach to the U.S.-China relationship.