Maritime Affairs Program (MAP) Handbill Spotlight

Recent Events

The Baltic Sea is witness to a myriad of events and intrigue, especially as of late. In April, archeologists identified what they believe may be Europe’s oldest human-made megastructure, from the Palaeolithic era, located 21 meters below the surface of the Bay of Mecklenburg, Germany. Similarly, researchers are again contemplating how coins from the Roman Empire landed on a remote island in the Baltic Sea, analyzing how sacrificial horses crossed the Baltic Sea during the Late Viking Age, and finally announcing after 13 years of study that a mysterious, oddly-shaped structure lying 90 meters underwater is likely a natural phenomenon.

Simultaneously, scientists and observers have been paying heavy attention to the Baltic Sea’s toxic thallium levels, which a new study finds is dominantly human-wrought and have “fundamentally changed the chemistry of the Baltic Sea.” These findings of increased thallium—a metal toxic to mammals and marine ecosystems—has already brought reprimand upon regional industrial and wartime activities from the 1940s to the present and can be expected to continue. Other environmental battles have been brought to light in the last month: debates on the economically sound scrubber systems on ships that large volumes of pollutant; the slow extinction of Baltic herring and its link to Norwegian salmon; new examinations of the interplay between groundwater emissions and Baltic Sea pollution; and the recovery of tens of thousands of tonnes of chemical weapons, munitions and unexploded bombs dumped into the Black Sea. Positive battles towards sustainability are also highlighted, such as the installation of the Baltic Sea’s largest wind farm and a fresh effort by two ports in Sweden and Finland to cut port waiting times, which thus reduces fuel consumption and carbon emissions.

Even more pressing to most is the Baltic Sea’s role in regional security as it pertains to Russia. In mid-May, the Russian Defense Ministry released a draft government decree unilaterally proposing a change to Russia’s maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea; a release that was deleted from the official document portal on May 22 and has since been denied by authorities. Not long before, Lithuanian intelligence released a report describing Russian military plans of a standoff  with NATO nations in the Baltic Sea region lasting “at least several years.” Estonia’s defense commander proposed blockading the Baltic Sea to reduce options for aggressors as broader concerns of an escalation into direct NATO country involvement in the Ukraine conflict still hover. Russia is also being linked to several cases of electronic warfare over the Baltic Sea, applying mass GPS jamming across northern Europe and impacting both commercial and military aircraft.

Keep In Mind

The Baltic Sea will inevitably remain relevant in global maritime affairs, especially when it comes to the geopolitics of NATO states and the West’s relations with Russia. While there is much recent talk centered around sustainability and climate preservation—perhaps linked to the European Union’s commemoration of the 50 year anniversary of the signing of the Helsinki Convention, which was primarily established by Baltic Sea coastal states to defend the region’s marine environment—the security narrative should be expected to take precedence at the multinational level. Regardless, climate activists, scientists and even treasure hunters will continue to value this body of water’s unique properties and historic significance.

Most notably, with Sweden’s ascension to NATO member country status in March 2024, all coastal states of the Baltic Sea—excluding Russia—are now NATO member countries. Increased NATO security talks, workshops and naval exercises in the Baltic Sea are inevitable for the future, with the newly revived, annual Estonian Navy-led operation Open Spirit 2024 and the Iceland-based, multinational anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare exercise Dynamic Mongoose 24 being two examples. Russia’s Baltic Sea coastline is admittedly short, but that does not detract from its threat level, especially with St. Petersburg—Russia’s second-largest city—sitting on that coast and talks of nuclear weapons hovering over every conversation. So long as the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues and fears of Russia’s nuclear—or other destabilizing—activities persist, the Baltic Sea will need to remain a place of vigilant defense.