Maritime Affairs Program (MAP) Handbill Spotlight

Recent Events

As the United States moves to shift its strategy to one more focused on great power competition, specifically a global strategic competition with China, the F-35 aircraft is playing an increasingly important role as the U.S. military adapts a new defense strategy explicitly focused on preparing for a military conflict with China. Due to its high costs and a lower demand for a dogfight, the production of the F-22 Raptors halted in 2011. As America’s only fifth generation fighter currently in production, the F-35s will be the cornerstone of almost every U.S. military operation around the world, especially in the West Pacific, where China’s growing military power is coming face-to-face with that of the United States’.

On March 18, 2022, it was confirmed for the first time that the United States’ F-35s had “at least one encounter with China’s fifth generation J-20 stealth fighters” over the East China Sea. This marks the first non-friendly encounter between the only two fifth generation fighters currently in production. Most significantly, according to USAF commander Kennth Wilsbach, close contact between the F-35s and China’s J-20 “became more frequent in the second half of 2020,” which indicated that the frequency of air operations in the West Pacific, especially around area near the Taiwan Strait, has risen dramatically over the past two years. The increased level of air operations on China’s peripheral areas such as the East and South China Sea eventually led to increased frequency of accidents that could make the region more risky. For instance, on January 24, 2022, it was reported that an F-35C crashed and sank into the South China Sea when trying to land on USS Carl Vinson. The wreckage of this aircraft was successfully recovered on March 3 by the U.S. Navy, but multiple observers noted concerns about China or Russia finding and taking the aircraft first for themselves.

Keep in Mind

Although the Biden administration has defined its strategic competition with China as a competition for influence, which makes it less likely to seek armed conflict with China in the near-term, the notion of a strategic competition inevitably raises the frequency of air and naval operations in the West Pacific. Under that strategic shift, the F-35s will become a more frequent visitor, if not a resident, of the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Observers can expect to see a higher frequency of reports on encounters between the F-35s and Chinese aircraft and naval vessels in the future.

Moreover, the F-35s are also playing an important role in the U.S.-led security system as it is also becoming the increasingly dominant fighter jets of the U.S. allies, especially those in the Indo-Pacific region. Out of the thirteen allies that possess the F-35s, four of them are in the Indo-Pacific region: Japan, Australia, South Korea, and Singapore. Japan has shown a strong interest in obtaining the F-35A to replace the dated F-15Js and enhance the combat capabilities of its Air Self Defense Force. Tokyo is also seeking to acquire more F-35Bs to pair with its Izumo-class helicopter carriers. Australia, South Korea, and Singapore are also possessing considerable numbers of the aircraft despite various reports of technical issues. Thus, F-35s can be expected to be seen more frequently in the airspace of the Indo-Pacific region.

Although an official decision has not yet been made, Taiwan has also previously shown a strong interest in acquiring the F-35Bs. While the U.S. did not agree to sell the leading stealth aircraft to the self-ruled island at the time, the volatile situation across the Taiwan Strait could have significant implications for future Taiwan requests for U.S. fighter aircrafts. As mainland China continues to increase frequency and volume of flyovers, the question of Taiwan’s air space defense will inevitably be thrown at the United States. What’s more, Taiwan has actually already tested the water in 2019 when Taipei requested a fleet of new fighters from the U.S., though they did not specify a type. Despite the sensitivity of arms sales to Taiwan, the F-35 cannot be ruled out as a potential sale option should the cross-strait situation further worsen and its regional implications become even heavier.