The South China Sea remained one of the most geopolitically sensitive regions in 2024, with maritime disputes, military activities, legal battles and media campaigns continuing to shape regional dynamics. As we move into 2025, a key question arises: will the region witness further confrontations, or will diplomatic avenues emerge to manage these complex issues? While tensions persist, the prospects for peace and cooperation depend on the willingness and ability of regional actors—including China, Southeast Asian nations, and external powers—to balance their competing interests.
The Situation in 2024: Maritime Tensions and Strategic Maneuvering
In 2024, maritime interactions intensified as various parties asserted territorial and maritime claims to protect respective national interests. The Philippines reported multiple encounters with Chinese coast guard vessels near Second Thomas Shoal, an area within the Philippines’ claimed exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but also part of China’s broader maritime claims. Similarly, Vietnam and Malaysia expressed concerns over Chinese naval patrols in their EEZs, arguing these actions violated their maritime rights under international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Meanwhile, China maintained that its claims were grounded in a combination of UNCLOS provisions and historical rights.
These disputes highlight the complexities of territorial sovereignty and maritime resource utilization, with each claimant relying on differing legal interpretations. China underscores its historical rights alongside UNCLOS provisions, while Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei advocate for their claims primarily based on UNCLOS.
Legal Battles and Narrative Strategies
The Philippines has remained a strong proponent of third-party dispute settlement, particularly citing the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s “Nine-Dash Line” claim. Although Beijing rejects this ruling, the Philippines continues to leverage it to assert that its EEZ should be respected by all parties. China, on the other hand, maintains that its maritime rights are based on international law, including UNCLOS and historical usage, and opposes third-party intervention without state consent, viewing the disputes as bilateral issues.
Beyond legal mechanisms, narratives surrounding the South China Sea dispute have played a crucial role in shaping international perceptions. The Philippines has pursued a sophisticated media campaign to highlight Chinese actions, often portraying itself as a victim of aggression. This strategy has drawn international attention and bolstered support from Western nations concerned about China’s growing influence.
However, the portrayal of these incidents remains complex, as many disputes occur in areas with overlapping claims, and actions by Chinese vessels do not necessarily violate international law. The Philippines’ media efforts often highlight encounters involving its fishermen or coast guard, sometimes presenting them in a way that underscores the challenges faced by smaller nations in maritime disputes. While these narratives resonate strongly with the international community, they may not always capture the full legal and geopolitical complexities of the South China Sea issue.
Despite these contrasting positions, both sides have expressed openness to dialogue. China has reiterated its willingness to engage in discussions through ASEAN-led frameworks to seek peaceful resolutions, while the Philippines has called for stronger international support to reinforce its position, particularly from the United States and regional allies.
Economic Dimensions and Resource Exploration
Energy exploration remains a key point of contention. In 2024, Vietnam resumed oil exploration in disputed waters, such as Vanguard Bank, an area within China’s “Nine-Dash Line.” These activities led to increased tensions, with reports of Chinese coast guard vessels shadowing Vietnamese operations. In response, China proposed joint exploration initiatives, but these have been met with skepticism by countries wary of conceding territorial claims.
Beyond energy, China has leveraged economic initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), to strengthen regional partnerships. These efforts highlight Beijing’s broader strategy of using economic ties to foster stability and cooperation, although concerns over territorial sovereignty persist among neighboring states.
ASEAN’s Role
ASEAN remains a crucial player in managing South China Sea disputes. Efforts to establish a Code of Conduct (COC) with China have continued, although progress has been slow due to differing priorities among member states. Key challenges included defining the geographical scope of the code and determining its binding nature.
Some ASEAN countries emphasize economic ties with China, while others, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, prioritize national security concerns. Nevertheless, ASEAN’s engagement with China presents opportunities for cooperation that could mitigate tensions. During the 2024 ASEAN Summit, leaders emphasized the importance of regional cooperation in addressing South China Sea security issues.
China’s Maritime Strategy
In 2024, China continued to enhance its presence in the South China Sea through advanced surveillance systems, joint naval and air patrols, and infrastructure development on the features it administers. From Beijing’s perspective, these actions are defensive measures aimed at safeguarding territorial claims and ensuring the security of vital shipping lanes, through which over 64% of China’s maritime trade transits.
At the same time, China has promoted joint resource development initiatives as a means of fostering regional cooperation. While some Southeast Asian countries remain cautious about such proposals, fearing they could legitimize China’s territorial claims, these initiatives reflect Beijing’s preference for bilateral negotiations over third-party arbitration or litigation.
U.S. Military Presence
The United States has maintained an active military presence in the South China Sea, conducting regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) and joint military exercises with allies such as the Philippines, Japan, and Australia. These activities support Washington’s broader strategy of counterbalancing China’s influence and ensuring open maritime access. While the U.S. asserts that these operations align with international law, China views them as provocative actions that challenge its territorial and maritime claims.
China has consistently called for respect for regional sovereignty and advocates for disputes to be managed primarily by the directly involved parties rather than external actors. While acknowledging the U.S.’s security commitments to its regional allies, China emphasizes the importance of diplomatic engagement and multilateral frameworks to address ongoing maritime disputes.
Regional Security Alliances
The growing security alliances in the region, particularly between the U.S., Japan, Australia, and increasingly India, have the potential to influence the situation in the South China Sea. India’s “Act East” policy and its expanding engagement with Southeast Asian nations may impact the regional security dynamics, particularly as India increases its naval presence in the Indo-Pacific. Australia also plays a significant role in regional security through participation in multilateral arrangements like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), alongside the U.S., Japan, and India. Australia’s efforts to ensure maritime security in the Indo-Pacific have extended to increased defense cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines and Indonesia.
Canada has participated in multinational naval exercises, including the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC), and maintains strong security ties with the U.S. and other Western partners. European nations, notably the United Kingdom and France, have also increased their naval activities in the South China Sea.
These external military engagements reflect broader international involvement in the region. In response, China may adjust its own security posture, potentially by enhancing military deployments or strengthening strategic partnerships with countries such as Pakistan and other participants in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meanwhile, some South China Sea claimants, including Indonesia and Malaysia, have taken a cautious approach toward the military presence of external powers. As multiple stakeholders seek to protect their interests, these developments could influence the overall security dynamics in the region.
Looking Ahead to 2025: Competition, Diplomacy, and Cooperation
As 2025 unfolds, territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea are expected to persist. The course of these disputes will largely depend on the willingness of key stakeholders—China, Southeast Asian nations (both claimants and non-claimants), and external powers—to engage in diplomacy and seek mutually acceptable solutions. China has reaffirmed its commitment to peaceful dispute resolution while maintaining its maritime security interests. Beijing is likely to continue its dual-track approach of strengthening economic and political ties with ASEAN while advancing discussions on the long-awaited Code of Conduct (COC).
The United States is expected to sustain its strategic presence in the region. In January 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made calls with Southeast Asian counterparts, including Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono and Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, to discuss maritime security and regional stability. While U.S. military activities, such as FONOPs and joint exercises, are likely to continue, the balance between deterrence and diplomacy will be key to shaping regional dynamics.
Ultimately, the South China Sea will remain a focal point of geopolitical competition. However, there are also opportunities for increased cooperation through bilateral talks, ASEAN-led initiatives, and multilateral frameworks. The extent to which regional actors can engage constructively will determine whether 2025 sees greater stability or heightened tensions in one of the world’s most strategically significant maritime regions.
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