The US-ASEAN Honeymoon Shouldn’t Come at China’s Expense

The upcoming summit meeting between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the Sunnylands Ranch in California on February 15-16, 2016 will highlight the vast significance of American relations with the ten-member Southeast Asian regional organization. By most accounts, it is an unprecedented summit meeting between both sides as it is the first time that the United States hosts such a summit on the North American continent. President Obama and his ASEAN guests will have a lot to say and discuss given the growth in their economic and trading ties, pending security issues and increased desire for more meaningful strategic partnerships. Whatever the result of this US-ASEAN summit, the “China factor” will certainly take a central place. The question here is in what way the “China factor” might adequately be addressed in order to have a positive impact on the region.

Since the end of the Cold War, a strong US-ASEAN relationship has never been more desired and important than it is now. With China’s rise and its policy turn of “assertiveness,” both sides need to reinforce their security cooperation to hedge against any uncertainties in the region. President Obama’s “Rebalancing” strategy has sought to refurbish its military, economic and political influences to counter a re-emerging China, while ASEAN as a whole is striving to pull the United States closer to counter-balance an active China in all domains. Tensions arising from the South China Sea territorial disputes create a big driver for ASEAN to tilt towards Washington to regenerate a delicate balance in the region. Consequently this new dynamic leaves the US considerably leeway to confront China on multiple fronts. In truth, the South China Sea friction is just one of them.

Building upon ASEAN’s mounting China anxieties, President Obama’s “rebalancing strategy” seems quite well-conceived. Washington has never been more relied upon to anchor the regional security order. Enhanced ties between the US and ASEAN would secure the Obama Administration’s brilliant legacy in foreign policy. In contrast, Beijing has become cornered due to its lack of preparation for such a development. Moreover, there is no doubt that China risks losing ASEAN in the contestation of the South China Sea disputes.

Nevertheless, “keeping China cornered” would not automatically produce stability and cooperation. China has become “the elephant in the room” for all ASEAN member states. How to productively and intelligently come up with a policy package to curb contentious security concerns in the Asia-Pacific while managing lingering disputes will be a real test of the wisdom and vision of leaders all over region.

At Sunnylands, President Obama will surely tout the economic and trading ties between the US and ASEAN. In recent years, American investment in ASEAN has exceeded investment in China, Japan and Korea combined. Four member states of ASEAN are now members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The economic heft of the United States in ASEAN is expected to grow further still. China will clearly benefit from a prosperous ASEAN and closer trading ties between the US and ASEAN as well. Similarly, Beijing’s efforts to update infrastructure in ASEAN states will in return strengthen economic bonds between the US and ASEAN countries. Beijing should anticipate and welcome positive results on economic issues at the Sunnylands summit.

Beijing’s grave concern will be the South China Sea statement from Sunnylands. Last week, the White House acidly warned China that maritime territorial disputes must not involve “bullying.” President Obama has also used the word “bully” to describe Chinese behavior in the South China Sea at other times. This sparks Beijing’s irritation, and against the nationalistic backdrop of Chinese domestic politics, perhaps emboldens Chinese hardliners to reject conciliatory positions. If President Obama is going to project China as a “bully” in the South China Sea disputes at Sunnylands, this tactic will clearly not help one bit in diminishing current tensions.

What can we expect of the Sunnylands statement on the South China Sea? Will it keep China under fire? Or will it seek a way to accommodate contending concerns while unequivocally setting down a roadmap to a settlement? We’ll have to wait and see. In any case, turning the US-ASEAN Sunnylands summit into anti-China chorus would do little to assuage the US or ASEAN’s “China anxieties.”

Zhu Feng is Executive Director of the China Center for Collaborative studies of South China Sea at Nanjing University. Professor Zhu can be reached at zhufeng@nju.edu.cn

This article also appeared in the February 16 edition of the ICAS Bulletin