“Tensions over Taiwan have reached a boiling point in U.S.-China relations over the last four years. The issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty was an expected hot topic of discussion in recent bilateral diplomatic discussions and also at international forums such as the Shangri-La Dialogue, with Beijing sending consistent warnings of serious reactions should the U.S. “interfere” in Chinese domestic affairs. So when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier this month, it was no surprise that Beijing responded with a new round of military drills by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around the self-claimed island.

Perhaps a bit more unexpected was how, as part of its response to Speaker Pelosi’s visit, China suspended high-level military dialogues with the U.S. This rising tension over Taiwan during a time when the two great powers lack effective security communication channels raises significant concerns over an open conflict between China and the U.S. The potential snow-balling consequences of these suspensions should not be underestimated.

Incidentally, wargames simulating armed conflict between Beijing and Washington over the Taiwan Strait have also gained national attention in recent months. Despite their headline-catching findings, the two wargame projects—one held by Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and the other by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—can dangerously mislead American policymakers and public to misunderstand the risk and current state across the Taiwan Strait. Both the CNAS and the CSIS wargame projects relied on assumptions about strategy and military doctrine that are unwarranted, impractical, or outdated. Meanwhile, the methods used to conduct these wargames were likely more entertaining than they were accurate and constructive…”