House of Dragonslayers

As the Biden administration continues to emphasize U.S. strategic competition with China, China has become a central focus of the 117th Congress over the past two years. Legislation was proposed, discussed – and some adopted as law – that directly addressed China on a variety of issues ranging from trade policy, technology and innovation competition, export controls, to measures targeting specific regions, specific industries, and specific public or private practices.

During the last two years, the 117th Congress observed and experienced first-hand the consequences of the free fall that the U.S.-China bilateral relationship underwent during the Trump administration, and they consistently maintained this inertia throughout its duration. The 117th Congress could do little to reverse the trajectory or repair the bilateral relationship not only because of the personal beliefs of certain outspoken members of Congress, but also due to the general deterioration of the American public opinion on China – indeed, no one shall go against the will of the voters.

The complication of excess domestic lobbying, accompanied by the further deterioration of the U.S.-China relations on the international stage, has further raised unnecessary alarm on the Chinese side as Beijing interprets lobbying and political messages from the U.S. domestic discussions as proof of U.S. intention to further contain or even undermine China’s rise.

With the new congressional meeting starting in 2023, the 118th Congress will inherit both the deteriorating U.S.-China relations and the increasingly extreme rhetoric concerning China. As developments of the midterm election have shown, China is a major issue to address for both the Democratic and the Republican party. As the presidential election becomes an increasingly hot domestic issue 2023-2024, the uncertainties of U.S. domestic politics will only increase. With Biden and Trump as the most likely finalists, the discussion over China and how the United States should continue to approach China will become the most dominant, if not only, issue on the candidates’ foreign policy agenda.

In order to avoid turbulence caused by another incident in the like of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, an U.S.-China legislative dialogue should be established to avoid technology and trade issues from running into unknown and mutually harmful grounds. To use the newly elected 118th Congress and China’s new People’s Congress as a fresh start, both countries should increase communication on the legislative level and incorporate first-hand inputs from the business communities to stabilize the relationship. As developments in the bilateral relationship and in global events have led to increasing unpredictability and calls for more appropriate management, emerging policy issues in the field will require better coordination – or at least sufficient communication – between the two sides to avoid misunderstanding of intention and unnecessary escalation of tensions.